Staff Predictions: No. 1 Texas versus Oklahoma

Texas and Oklahoma head back to the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, October 10, for the 122nd meeting in a series that began in 1900. The Longhorns have had the better of the last two trips to Dallas, winning 34-3 in 2024 and 23-6 last season, and now have a chance to make it three straight. That gives Texas fans plenty to feel good about heading into the fairgrounds, but it also gives Oklahoma another year’s worth of frustration to bring into this one.directv+1

No. 1 Texas arrives at 4-0, while Oklahoma’s 2-2 start has exposed an offense hurt by turnovers. The Sooners’ defense is a different story, and the Longhorns cannot afford to spend the afternoon asking Arch Manning to rescue possessions on third-and-long. For Texas, the job is to stay ahead of the chains and make Oklahoma earn its scoring opportunities rather than handing over short fields. Can the Longhorns clean up enough of their offensive mistakes to keep control of this rivalry, or will the Sooners find a way to make them pay? Our staff weighs in with their predictions below.

PREDICTIONS

Jameson McCausland (4-0)

I think Brent Venables knows how important this game is for his tenure at Oklahoma. If he drops to 1-4 against Texas, he will fall out of favor with many OU fans. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the OU offense shows a pulse early in this one with 2 full weeks to prepare. 

For Texas, Sarkisian has to continue the trend of finding ways to move the ball against a Venables defense. The Sooners are top 10 in almost all advanced defensive metrics, and the consistency issues with the Texas offense are well-documented at this point. Getting Hollywood Smothers and Nick Townsend back from injury is a big boost for the Texas run game. 

All the evidence points to this being a low-scoring, defensive battle. That usually means to expect something different.

Score Prediction: Texas 28, Oklahoma 21

Devon Messinger (4-0)

After a bye week, don’t be surprised if alarm bells start ringing in Dallas.

Both Texas and Oklahoma have experienced very different seasons so far. As a result, don’t be surprised if the Longhorns get off to a bit of a lull after hearing all week about how bad the Sooners have been.

But remember, the Red River Rivalry is a matchup where upsets happen. It will be critically important for Arch Manning to find his rhythm quickly, as Brent Venables’ squad will gain confidence with every snap if this turns into a close game.

Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns have won two straight against their rivals. Can they make it three?

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 17

Aaron Carrara (4-0)

A lot of the question marks and frustration about this Texas team revolve around the lack of offensive production. While the Longhorns have done just enough to maintain an unblemished record so far this season, that is exactly the strategy for this weekend’s rivalry game against Oklahoma. Would it be nice to see Arch Manning throw for three touchdowns? You bet. However, the Longhorns don’t need a breakout offensive performance in order to win this game – they need to continue to play stifling defense and not turn the ball over. Oklahoma’s offense has shown that they are a work in progress, even more so than Texas, and Will Muschamp will have some new wrinkles to throw at them. In a rivalry game in which anything can happen, the Longhorns lock this game down thanks to the defense and remain unbeaten.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 17

Marc Henry (4-0)

No. 1 Texas heads to Dallas with momentum from its road win over Tennessee and a bye week to prepare for the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma enters 2-2 and 0-1 in SEC play, but records carry little weight in this matchup, expect the Sooners to bring a fight. The Longhorns need to establish control in the trenches early, create explosive plays, and limit turnovers and penalties.

Defensively, Colin Simmons and the Texas front must keep pressure on Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer and force takeaways. Clean, physical football from the opening snap will be key to Texas leaving Dallas with another win.

Score Prediction: Texas 35 Oklahoma 10

Mitch Lovell (4-0)

Oklahoma will break their streak of no touchdowns dating back to 2023, but Texas is the better team overall and should present issues for the Oklahoma offense. It’s the Red River Rivalry so anything can happen, but the Longhorns will pull away with a healthy Hollywood Smothers and a couple of Oklahoma turnovers.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 10

Kendrick Johnson (4-0)

In a game like this you always throw records out the window, but with a bye between Texas’ big win over Tennessee and the “Red River Rivalry” against Oklahoma, Texas should be more than prepared to beat OU for the third consecutive season.

At the end of the day, Texas is the better team who is on a mission to win a national title this season, and I don’t see anyway how an Oklahoma offense which struggled to score 14 against New Mexico two weeks ago beats Texas. I expect the Longhorns to seize the momentum midway through the second quarter and turn things up a notch on both sides of the ball.

When the dust clears, Arch Manning will have played his most complete game of the season and will be directing the Texas band after the game while they play “The Eyes of Texas” after a 31-10 Longhorn victory to take home the “Golden Hat” for the third consecutive season.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, Oklahoma 10