If you’re a college basketball fan, there’s nothing better than the first four days of March Madness – the brackets; the upsets; the buzzer beaters. There isn’t anything in sports that consistently matches the all-encompassing magic of the first few days of college basketball’s championship tournament. Even the Super Bowl struggles to claim superiority over March Madness…Super Bowls Squares versus Brackets?
For Rick Barnes and the Texas Longhorns, those first four days haven’t been a Cinderella story recently. In fact, missing the 2013 tournament coupled with an ugly first round loss in the College Basketball Invitational, had many fans convinced that changes were needed in the program.
Then the 2014 season started. Texas exceeded fan expectations with a youthful roster. Hope was rekindled.
That hope has largely been dashed. Since February 1st, the Horns are 7-6, going 2-6 in road/neutral site games.
But this is March. Starting today, there are 64 teams that have an opportunity to reel off six wins and be crowned national champion. Just like everyone else, the Longhorns are starting with a proverbial clean slate. Whether they find the groove that carried them through January or are dogged by their late-season swoon is up to them.
Texas faces an Arizona State team that had it’s own share of struggles throughout the second half of PAC 12 play. ASU finished their season with three straight losses and lost 5 of their last 7 games.
The teams’ connections don’t end with their February struggles. The Sun Devils’ Head Coach, Herb Sendek, was a graduate assistant on Barnes’ staff at Providence. The two also coached against each other in the ACC while Barnes was at Clemson and Sendek was running NCSU’s program. Beyond these connections, Sendek suffers from many of the same criticisms as Barnes – poor tournament performances and a lacking offense.
The reality is that after these teams square off in Milwaukee tonight at the Bradley Center, one of the fan bases is going to be saying, “Told you so“, while the other repeats the March Madness battle cry, “Survive and Advance!â€
Key metrics for tonight:‘”
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[*]Texas is 5-4 against Top 25 competition while ASU is 2-2. 9 of the Horns’ 10 losses were against teams that eventually made the field of 64.
[*]The Longhorns score just over 74 ppg; the Sun Devils score 75 ppg. Texas allows 70 ppg; the ASU defense averages 69 ppg.
[*]Texas is 10-3 this season in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
[*]Arizona State is 5-0 this year when getting at least five days before a game.
[*]The contrasts between Texas wins and losses is stark. In 23 wins, teams were limited to 64.9 ppg, 37% fgp, and Texas owned almost a 10 rpg margin. In 10 losses, the Horns allowed 81.9 ppg, 46.5% fgp and Texas held only a 1.8 rpg advantage.
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Prediction
Rick Barnes has been quoted about concerns over defending ASU’s point guard, Jahii Carson. Expect Carson to get his points. The key to this game is to make sure that Carson’s scoring doesn’t grease the skids for the entire ASU offense. Regardless of Carson’s performance, Texas needs to maintain control of the paint and defend the other 4 positions very well. Where the Longhorns have struggled late in the season is when they over-compensate for one player and end up suffering a total defensive breakdown as a result.
Expect this game to remain close deep into the second half.
