Two weeks ago, Texas was a top-10 team looking ahead to a November playoff push. Now the Longhorns are trying to keep October from wrecking their season.
Back-to-back 27-24 losses to Oklahoma and Florida have dropped Texas to 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the SEC. Neither game was decided by much. Taken together, though, they leave Steve Sarkisian’s team with little room for error and a top-10 opponent on the way to Austin.
Ole Miss shows up at 5-1, 3-1 in league play, and coming off a 31-3 win over Missouri. Pete Golding’s Rebels are healthy, confident and led by a quarterback who can beat a defense with his arm or his legs. It’s not the opponent you’d pick for a get-right game.
The upside is that a win Saturday night would erase a lot of the last two weeks.
Series History
This will be the ninth meeting and first since 2013. Texas leads 6-2.
The series dates back to 1912 when Texas won 53-14. The biggest game in it came Jan. 1, 1962 — No. 3 Texas beat No. 5 Ole Miss 12-7 in the Cotton Bowl. It was Darrell Royal’s first bowl win and his first 10-win season in Austin.
In September 2013 the Rebels came into DKR and won 44-23. Thirteen years later they’re back, this time as a conference opponent.
What to Watch For
Ending the three-and-outs. Texas’ offense hasn’t failed because of one big flaw, it’s been failing a few plays at a time. The Longhorns have gone three-and-out on 34.3% of their possessions (worst in SEC). Against Ole Miss quick punts are not an annoyance; they give Trinidad Chambliss the ball back and leave the Texas defense on the field too long.
The fix doesn’t have to be fancy. Gain four or five yards on first down, don’t get sacked on second down and face a third down that Arch Manning can actually convert. Do that and the shots downfield open up by themselves.
Arch Manning against the Rebels’ Front
Manning has 1,295 passing yards and 11 touchdowns but the box score hasn’t shown all that much yet. He’s been under pressure too often and plays behind an offensive line that has struggled lately. On Saturday he has to face one of the more aggressive fronts on the Longhorns’ schedule.
The answer is getting the ball out fast – screens, quick game and decisive reads. The Ole Miss secondary has given up plays (especially on the road). Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo can take advantage of that, but only if Manning has time to find them.
Keep Chambliss in the Pocket
Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdowns against Missouri and has 1,676 passing yards on the season. He’s at his worst after the play breaks down. A pass rusher who loses containment or a defensive back who loses focus at four seconds is what he wants.
Muschamp’s problem is pressure but not escape routes. Texas needs rushers to stay in their lanes and a secondary that covers long enough for them to get home.
Watch Kewan Lacy Too
If Texas focuses all its attention on Chambliss, Kewan Lacy will punish them for it. The Ole Miss running back had 122 yards on 16 carries last week — his best game in a season slowed by injuries. If Lacy keeps the Rebels ahead of the chains, then the Texas pass rush never gets the obvious passing downs they need.
Life Without Colin Simmons
All signs point to Texas not playing Simmons (high ankle sprain). Losing your best edge rusher against a quarterback like Chambliss stings. Someone else on the front has to step up and linebacker Rasheem Biles leads the team with 48 tackles, so he’ll be cleaning up whatever gets through.
The First Bad Moment
There will be one. A drive-killing sack, a missed tackle on third down, an early Ole Miss touchdown… After two close losses in a row the real test is whether Texas can absorb that moment without it snowballing?
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