This team should be undefeated. They aren’t.
They could have four losses. They don’t.
That’s where Texas is heading into Saturday night. At 4-2, the Longhorns have played six games that could just as easily have gone the other way, in either direction. Both losses came by the same 27-24 score. Two of the wins came by a combined four points. Flip those four results and you have a team that’s either 6-0 and in the national title conversation or 2-4 and fighting for a bowl game.
Neither of those is real. What’s real is No. 7 Ole Miss coming to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 24, at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC, and a game that matters for a lot of reasons.
How Texas Got Here
The first month had everything Texas wanted. The Longhorns opened with a 59-7 win, then beat No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 at DKR in a game where they came back from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. They handled UTSA 30-6, then went to Knoxville and opened SEC play with a 20-17 win over No. 14 Tennessee.
October has gone the other way. Texas lost 27-24 to Oklahoma in Dallas, then lost 27-24 to Florida at home a week later after leading 17-3. Two straight fourth quarters got away, and the team that started the year ranked No. 5 has dropped to No. 19.
Texas is 1-2 in SEC play. Another loss doesn’t end the season, but it takes away almost all of the room for error the rest of the way.
The Problem Is Clear
Texas doesn’t lack talent. It lacks finish, and much of that starts with the offense.
The Longhorns go three-and-out 34.3% of the time, the worst rate in the SEC. When drives stall that early, a defense that ranks No. 12 nationally stays on the field too long, and those long fourth quarters start to look familiar.
Arch Manning has 1,295 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through six games. It’s been a season of highs and lows. The Ohio State comeback showed what he can be, and the last two weeks showed how much work is left. Cam Coleman, the Auburn transfer, leads the team with six touchdowns and is the kind of receiver who can flip a game with one play. Texas needs to get him the ball early and keep doing it.
Steve Sarkisian’s job this week is simple to describe and hard to do. Sustain drives, protect the football, and stop leaving his defense in bad spots.
What Ole Miss Brings
Ole Miss doesn’t look like a team that’s going through a transition. Under first-year head coach Pete Golding, who took over after Lane Kiffin left, the Rebels are 5-1 and 3-1 in the SEC. They’re coming off a 31-3 win over No. 13 Missouri.
That game is the blueprint Texas has to stop. Ole Miss ran for 257 yards against Missouri. Running back Kewan Lacy had 122 of them on 16 carries, his best game of the season and the healthiest he has looked all year.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is the other half of the problem. He threw for 241 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri and added another score on the ground. Through six games he has 1,676 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s at his most dangerous when a play breaks down and he can get outside the pocket.
On defense, senior safety Sharif Denson had nine tackles against Missouri and has 30 on the season.
Ole Miss’s only loss came at Florida, 52-28. That’s the same Florida team that just beat Texas, so there’s no clean comparison here, but it does show the Rebels can be pushed around when a game gets away from them.
The Simmons Factor
The worst news of the week for Texas came off the field. Edge rusher Colin Simmons is expected to miss three to four weeks with a high ankle sprain. That means Texas takes on one of the SEC’s best rushing attacks without its best pass rusher.
More falls on Rasheem Biles now. The Pitt transfer leads Texas with 48 tackles and will need to be the vocal leader of this defense on Saturday. The defensive line has to stay disciplined in its gaps, and the linebackers have to read plays quickly. If Lacy keeps getting to the second level untouched, Chambliss gets play-action all night, and that’s how Missouri lost 31-3.
Keys to the Game
Win early downs on offense. Texas can’t keep going three-and-out. Even a handful of sustained drives in the first half would change the shape of this game and keep the defense fresh for the fourth quarter.
Make Ole Miss one-dimensional. Stop Lacy and force Chambliss to win from the pocket on third-and-long. Ole Miss’s offense is built to work the other way around.
Contain Chambliss. When the pocket breaks down, rushers have to stay in their lanes. Giving up a scramble on third down is how a defense loses a game it’s playing well.
Play all four quarters. Texas has led late and lost twice in a row. The leads haven’t been the problem. Holding on to them has.
The Bottom Line
Oddsmakers still believe in Texas. The Longhorns are 3.5-point favorites at home, and the advanced numbers back that up: Texas still ranks ninth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play despite the two losses.
The talent is there. The schedule ahead, with Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M still to come, leaves room for a strong finish. But it all starts Saturday night at a sold-out DKR.
This season is still very much alive. It’s up to the staff and players to make it happen.
