Let’s call this week the week of storylines. There’s the storyline of Championship Week, wherein Texas has an opportunity to either win or share a Big 12 title. There’s the storyline of Baylor Football’s last game in Floyd-Casey Stadium. How about the possibility of this being Mack’s final regular season game as the Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns? Nick Saban, anyone? I’m sure there are more, but those three are enough to run with for anyone.
While those topics are of great interest to the Longhorn faithful, I’ll choose to focus on the task at hand which is to sort through the facts and numbers in determining which team holds the overall edge in this game. Moreover, while we must look at the overall numbers and play of both of these teams, the recent play and performance of Baylor and Texas are a very important factor in predicting the outcome.
In all honesty, this game is the most difficult of the year to predict. Sure, Texas has won games that they shouldn’t have (OU) and they lost games that, at the time, we thought they should have won (BYU). But for the most part, especially recently, Texas has fared about as well as was expected of them. They beat the inferior teams and lost to the better team (OKState). They even trounced an overmatched and undermanned Tech team on national television. But does that make them better than, or even as good as a team in Baylor that, for much of the year, had destroyed opponents with its superb QB play and outstanding overall offensive performances? That is the question that makes this prediction so difficult, not to mention how the weather will factor into the contest.
OFFENSE:
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/cmccoy_kstate.jpg Photo: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Without Jonathan Gray and Daje Johnson against Tech, the Texas offense had difficulty getting started. Of course, it was playing a bottom tier rush defense, one of the worst in the country, and it continually fed and fed the ball to its horses to the tune of 281 yards and three TDs. Texas had difficulty however in the passing game, only completing 11 of 20 passes for 182 yards, but with two TDs and zero interceptions. Its only turnovers came on WR runs by Marcus Johnson.
Baylor’s defense had a similar type of day against TCU. On one hand, the defense had a sack and created four turnovers including two interceptions returned for long TDs. On the other hand, Baylor allowed 38 points to a team that Texas held to seven, and gave up 410 total yards. The Baylor game against TCU marks the second straight game in which it was out-gained by its opponent in total yards.
Overall numbers defensively for Baylor against the rush show that the Bears give up 133.8 yards per game, good for 26th nationally. Against the pass, Baylor gives up 221.7 yards in the air, 48th in the country. In regards to the Baylor defense creating turnovers, they are currently ranked 24th in intercepting passes as they’ve now intercepted 15 on the year. Baylor has also sacked it’s opponent 31 times, 21st in the country.
However, in looking at the last two games that Baylor has played, which many can call its worst games of the year, Baylor was beaten on defense by the pass. Oklahoma State passed the ball for 440 yards and 3 TDs (370 from Chelf). OKState also rushed the ball for 154 yards, but only at 3.3 ypc. TCU and Casey Pachall passed for 288 and 2 TDs, while rushing for 122 yards at 3.7 ypc.
The difference in the TCU game from the OKState game were the 3 interceptions thrown by Pachall. Those interceptions allowed Baylor to stay in the ballgame and eventually go ahead to win.
In the meantime, Texas has had its recent struggles. As mentioned earlier, Texas was able to run the ball well against the lowly Tech defense, but it struggled completing passes as Case was barely over the .500 on his completions per attempt ratio. The positive here, however, is that he did not turn the ball over. In his final game at DKR, he did his job and drove the bus as Texas topped 41 points.
One week prior against OKState was a very different story. Texas faced a solid defensive unit in the Cowboys and had just about everything go wrong when it didn’t need to. The Longhorns ran the ball to the tune of 151 yards and 1 TD, but it was only at 3.5 yards per carry. McCoy, however, struggled through the air, completing 26 of 39 passes for 221 yards, but with three interceptions, including one costly one at the end of the first half that all but put the game out of reach.
Both teams have showed strengths in the past couple of weeks, but they have also showed some weakness. Baylor has done a decent job of stopping the run, but they have been beaten through the air. Texas has been able to run the ball, but the passing game has left a lot to be desired.
Before I saw the weather report and the forecasts of freezing rain/sleet and 13 MPH winds, I believed that if Texas wants to be able to have success on offense against the Baylor defense, it must be able to pass the ball. My tune, however, has changed. I believe that the weather will play a major factor in how our offense has to play in order to be successful. First of all, in regards to the pass, McCoy must be more accurate and find receivers in the middle of the field. Case must limit the turnovers. Major has to stay away from the sideline routes and find a way to push the ball upfield and to the edges where the chances of turning the ball over are low. We also need to be able to find a way to use Daje’s speed as an advantage, whether by decoy or not. More importantly, though, Texas must pound the ball into the middle of the defense. They must attack the linebacker position, where Baylor is missing it’s middle linebacker. They must also take advantage of Dixon being out for the first half of the game by using play action passes at various times. This gameplan must be perfect if it wants to score and keep the Baylor offense off of the field at the same time.
Stat Predictions:
McCoy: 16-29, 214 yards 1 TD 1 Int.
Brown: 20 carries 105 yards 2 TD, 1 rec. 12 yards
Bergeron: 13 carries 52 yards, 2 rec. 20 yards
Daje: 2 carries 4 yards, 3 rec. 25 yards
M. Davis: 4 rec. 65 yards 1 TD
Shipley: 3 rec. 45 yards
Marcus J: 2 rec. 35 yards
K Sanders: 1 rec. 12 yards
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Texas+Tech+v+Texas+nkVfGSKu5xql.jpg Credit: Zimbio
DEFENSE:
Since the season began, we have seen just how dangerous the Baylor offense is. Briles somehow has the skill positions stacked with talent. At QB, Bryce Petty had himself on the Heisman list until the turf monster tripped him up in Stillwater. Seastrunk and Glasco Martin held a solid 1-2 punch at RB until injuries halted both in the last half of the season. The WRs were loaded with Tevin Reese and Goodley, until Reese was lost to an injury against OU.
Even with the injuries that have hit Baylor, they still have weapons and an offensive system that has the ability strike quickly and hit defenses at any time, but their production has fallen off as the season progressed.
Texas’ defense is quite the opposite. After starting the year off absolutely the worst way imaginable, Greg Robinson has turned his defensive unit into a team strength. Texas began the season with only 2 sacks in the first three games, and those were both against New Mexico State. Since then, Texas has recorded 33 sacks in 10 games, including 9 against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night.
For the season, Baylor ranks 4th overall in passing (365.9 ypg), 11th in rushing (269.2 ypg) and 1st in points for (55.4 ppg). Those numbers, however, are not accurate in regards to how the Bears have been performing lately.
Against OKState, Baylor met its numbers through the air with 359 yards, but were held to only 94 yards rushing, almost 175 yards less than its average. More importantly, OKState held Baylor to 17 points and forced three critical fumbles.
Last week against TCU, the Bears were more balanced as they passed for only 206 yards but rushed for 164. While the scoreboard showed 41 points for Baylor, the reality is that 14 of those points came directly from the defense on long interception returns for TDs. In fact, Baylor scored only on an 18 yard pass and a 33 yard pass, plus a 1 yard TD run along with the two field goals. That’s 27 points against a defense that gave up 31 to Texas earlier in the season.
The best news for Texas is that these two games have provided somewhat of a blueprint to slow down the Baylor offense. In Stillwater, OKState was still outgained in total yardage, but they were able to create turnovers, keep Baylor out of the end-zone early to stay ahead and force the Bears to abandon the run. In Fort Worth, the Bears found a way to win despite only averaging 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and 5.4 yards per catch through the air as TCU largely held the usual potent offense of Baylor to a minimum on offense.
The bad news is that, while OKState may have exposed Baylor two weeks ago, it did the same against Texas three weeks ago. The Longhorns defense could not stop Clint Chelf as he ran for 95 yards and two TDs on only 10 carries. While Chelf and the Cowboy offensive production hardly resembled the BYU meltdown, it showed that the weakness was still there. If an offense wants to have success against the Texas defense, it needs to have a QB that is a threat to tuck the ball and run when the pass option isn’t available. Yes, Petty is known more for his arm than his legs, but he has 11 TDs on the ground this year and has the speed to break a run if allowed.
While Texas has moved up weekly to now be ranked 54th in total defense (392.5 ypg), it still allows 176.6 yards on the ground per contest (77th).
The best way for Texas to overcome this weakness is to do what OKState did and force Baylor to rely on Petty’s arm. Petty has been very average in regards to accuracy lately, passing for a .500 completion percentage on 38 attempts against TCU and .583 completion percentage on 48 attempts against OKState.
The odds are against the defense, but the blueprint is there. The loss of Steve Edmond, Whaley, and Evans will hurt, but there are no excuses once the game starts. The defense cannot miss several tackles or give up long plays. It has to play smart, penalty/mistake-free football and make the key third and fourth down stops to halt drives. If Texas can do this, then it will beat Baylor.
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/6553576-199×300.jpg
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Man, if there’s one area of this team that needs a makeover, it’s special teams. Aside from the Anthony Fera’s field goal kicking and a couple of punt returns, this unit has been nearly a disaster. It was the main reason why Tech was anywhere near the scoreboard on Thursday night as it gave up a long TD fake punt and it allowed a drive to continue due to a boneheaded roughing the kicker penalty, which we’ve seen all too often this year.
What Texas needs against Baylor is to make special teams a non-factor. By that, I mean that Texas doesn’t need anything pretty, any kind of trickery, or any called block punts. It needs to be safe and ensure that we don’t see another fake for a TD or give free first downs from stupid penalties. Yes, it would be great to have a punt or field goal blocked and turn the momentum. The risk, though, in a game with as little room for error as there is in this game on a night that the crowd will probably be the loudest its ever been, is far too high to possibly give extra momentum back to Baylor.
Fera will need to be at his best and be prepared to kick three or four field goals, and possibly a clutch field goal at the end of the game.
Fera: 4/4
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/briles_hs1113.jpg Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
OVERALL:
Call this the toughest prediction of the season. Both Texas and Baylor have played enough games to have their weaknesses exposed. Texas has improved but still has its vices while Baylor has played its worse two games of the season the last two weeks.
Forget about all of the storylines and the fact that both Texas and Baylor have a share of the Big 12 title to play for. Forget that Baylor is playing its last game of the year in a packed out stadium. Forget that this may be Mack Brown’s last regular season game as the head coach of Texas.
Baylor recently was beaten rather badly by OKState with a possible National Title appearance on the line. Baylor is missing its best downfield threat at WR. Baylor’s running attack has taken a hit with injuries to many of its backs and its starting left tackle. The Bears are missing their top LB and will be missing arguably their best defensive player for the first half of the ballgame Saturday. But Baylor is still loaded with talent in key positions throughout the offense. Baylor still runs a quick-strike offense that has worked throughout much of the year. Baylor is still a very good team.
Texas has a defense playing assignment football and is missing fewer tackles. Texas is loaded at DE with two guys who can spring into the backfield at any moment for a sack. The Longhorns have an offense with an identity that is running the ball down your throat and a skilled set of WRs that have the ability to burn the secondary at any second. But Texas is also playing with a QB that is limited in his physical tools and has the propensity to turn the ball over. Texas is also missing key members of its defense, including starters at DT and LB. Texas has also recently been beaten rather badly by OKState.
Both Baylor and Texas have similar issues and are facing many of the same circumstances. To say that this is a guessing game is an understatement. One does have to take into account how each team has played throughout the season, but recent results and play are of equal, if not more weight.
I have gone back and forth on my prediction of this game all week. There are so many ways that this game can go. Texas could win by a little, lose by a little, or lose by a lot. The one variable that I keep coming back to, however, is how the weather will effect this game. The freezing rain can definitely put a team in a difficult position if it relies on the pass. It can give advantage to a team who excells at running the football. I feel that this weather will definitely assist Texas in their quest to establish a solid rushing attack. I’m worried, however, that it will allow Baylor to take advantage of an injury depleted linebacker group.
This game will be close, but I think Baylor’s run game will be just productive enough to outscore our offense.
SCORE PREDICTION:
Texas: 33 Baylor: 38
