No. 7 Texas heads to Columbia on Saturday for a game against No. 18 Missouri that should determine which team remains in the College Football Playoff race. Kickoff at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium is set for 11 a.m. Central on ESPN with Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer and Kris Budden on the call.
Both teams are 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play, so whoever loses takes another loss into the final weeks of the college football season. Texas is favored by roughly two and a half points, but the Longhorns are banged up. Running back Hollywood Smothers is out for the season with a torn MCL; receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are both injured and edge rusher Colin Simmons (still leads SEC with 10½ sacks despite missing last two games) is questionable with an ankle sprain.
Missouri has one of the conference’s best ground games led by Jamal Roberts (1,000 yards), and quarterback Austin Simmons is playing well under center for Eli Drinkwitz (almost 2,000 passing yards, 16 TDs and only two picks). The Tigers are 4-0 at home this season and 25-4 in Columbia since 2023.
This is the first time these two former Big 12 rivals will play as SEC opponents and also the first time they’ve met at all since Texas beat Missouri 33-16 in the 2017 Texas Bowl. The series dates back to 1894, and Texas leads it 18-6. Texas hasn’t won in Columbia since Oct. 24, 2009 (a drought Steve Sarkisian’s team would love to break).
Our Key Factors in the Game
Protecting Arch Manning
Texas has already given up 24 sacks this year (more than it gave up all of last year) and the offensive line has been shuffled around because of injuries. Missouri’s pass rush is the weakest part of its defense (11 sacks in conference play, 12th in SEC). They are also giving up 260.4 passing yards per game in league games. If Manning has time he should find receivers. If Missouri gets a couple of early sacks Texas could end up stuck in long yardage all afternoon.
Slow the Missouri Run Game
Missouri averages 167.5 rushing yards per game and runs a physical outside zone scheme. Jamal Roberts has already passed 1,000 yards (back-to-back 200 yard games against Florida and Texas A&M). All-American Ahmad Hardy is also coming back. Texas’ defense is thin with defensive backs Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton possibly out, so more pressure falls on front seven to win at line of scrimmage and keep Missouri from controlling clock.
Colin Simmons’ Status
Simmons leads the SEC with 10½ sacks despite missing two games with an ankle sprain and he is questionable. If he plays then Texas has a real shot at rattling Austin Simmons (like Texas A&M did). If not, Rasheem Biles has to keep playing like he has lately — Biles has been SEC co-defensive player of the week for two weeks in a row and had three sacks and two forced fumbles against Mississippi State.
Texas’ Banged-Up Playmakers
Hollywood Smothers is out for the season with a torn MCL, so Texas needs someone else to carry the load in the run game. Ryan Wingo (quad) and Cam Coleman (shoulder) are playing through injuries but that matters a lot because the two of them have caught 11 of Manning’s 15 TD passes. How healthy they are may decide how much Texas can take advantage of Missouri’s pass defense.
Turnovers
Missouri has only five turnovers on 547 offensive plays (tied with Kentucky for fewest in SEC). Austin Simmons has thrown just two interceptions to go with 16 TDs. If Texas wants to win on the road it needs to force a mistake and make sure Manning protects the ball like he did last week.
Missouri’s Home Field Advantage
Tigers are 4-0 at home this season and 25-4 in Columbia since 2023 (25 straight sellouts at Memorial Stadium). Texas hasn’t won in Columbia since 2009. This is only the Longhorns second true road game of the season. They won their first one, 20-17 at Tennessee.
The Bottom Line
The game looks close on paper. Texas is favored by about two and a half points, the over/under is around 43, some projection models have Texas winning 23-21. Both teams are at two losses and playoff hopes are on the line for each of them. To put things into perspective as to how critical this game is, the CBS Sports forecast says a win for Texas raises its playoff chances to 67.5% while a loss drops it to 22.8%.
