Texas has not been to Columbia since 2011, when both teams were in the Big 12 Conference. Saturday’s contest is significant, because the Longhorns and Tigers are each 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC.
The team that loses this one will have trouble staying in the playoff picture.
Missouri runs the ball a lot, averaging 167.5 yards per game. Jamal Roberts has already eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards this season and Ahmad Hardy is back from injury. Texas allows 102.4 rushing yards per game, but that was when their defense was healthy. Colin Simmons, Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips are all questionable for this game, and any of those three not playing could make it harder for Texas to contain Missouri’s outside running attack.
Turnover margin is another stat worth keeping an eye on. Missouri is plus five in SEC games while Texas is minus five. Austin Simmons has done well at Faurot Field, and Arch Manning has only been a starter on the road once this season (a hard-fought 20-17 win over Tennessee). If Texas can play well on early downs and hold ground in the trenches, they’ll have a chance to win.
An injury-depleted Longhorn roster makes this game difficult to predict, but given the high-stakes of this game (and every other moving forward), we can assume that Steve Sarkisian will have his team ready to play.
Our staff shares their thoughts on how this one plays out on Saturday at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.
PREDICTIONS
Jameson McCausland (5-3)
The injury situation feels pretty dire for Texas. The Longhorns already struggle enough to move the ball consistently on offense, and now they are likely to be without several key contributors. Steve Sarkisian is going to have to put together one of his best gameplans of the season, and Arch Manning may have to carry a heavier-than-normal load in the QB run game.
Missouri has been up and down offensively most of the season, but one thing QB Austin Simmons does is take excellent care of the football. Expect the Tigers to attempt to control the ball and tire out a defense that will likely be down several key pieces.
This feels like it has the makings of a one-possession, low-scoring game. Texas has squeaked out several of these games so far this season, so I’ll trust the Longhorns to find a way to get this one in the win column on the road.
Score Prediction: Texas 21, Missouri 17
Devon Messinger (6-2)
After a largely successful game against Mississippi State, the Longhorns play their first true road game since September 26, when they traveled to Tennessee.
Unlike the Volunteers, Missouri has no question marks at quarterback. Austin Simmons has been dominant for the Tigers and will look to take advantage of a Texas team that has been dealing with several injuries throughout its roster.
Despite the bite of the injury bug that the Longhorns have been facing, this team may be in the midst of an upswing. Against MSU, even the Texas passing attack showed major signs of life at times. Meanwhile, Will Muschamp’s defense has clamped down on opponents like a rabid Bull Terrier.
If Texas can pull out this game on the road, it will be in a much better position than we anticipated just a few short weeks ago. However, the defense will have to continue doing its thing, and Arch Manning will have to be willing to take the checkdown and take care of the football.But, as the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Let’s see if Texas fans get fooled again.
Score Prediction: Texas 27, Missouri 24
Aaron Carrara (5-3)
I think this game will be decided by Texas’ injuries more than anything Missouri shows on film. Hollywood Smothers is already ruled out, and Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are both questionable, so Arch Manning could be throwing to a thin receiver group in his second road start of the season.
The defense worries me more. Colin Simmons is the best pass rusher on the roster, and nickel Graceson Littleton and cornerback Kade Phillips rank fifth and sixth on the team in defensive snaps. Missouri runs for 167.5 yards a game with Jamal Roberts, who is over 1,000 yards, and the Tigers now have Ahmad Hardy back too. If Texas is short at the edge and in the secondary, Missouri can keep running the ball and take the Faurot Field crowd out of the game themselves, which suits a quarterback like Austin Simmons who is comfortable at home.
I trust Will Muschamp to fill the gaps if two of those three questionable defenders play. I’m also counting on Texas to finally stop losing the turnover battle, where it sits at minus-5 in SEC play. It won’t look good, and it may come down to the last possession, but I have the Longhorns surviving a close one with a late stop.
Score Prediction: Texas 20, Missouri 17
Marc Henry (5-3)
Texas heads to Missouri for a pivotal SEC matchup after climbing back into the top 10 with a big home win over Mississippi State. With little room for another loss in their playoff push, the Longhorns must contain quarterback Austin Simmons, running back Jamal Roberts and receiver Cayden Lee by tackling well in space, limiting explosive plays and forcing third-and-long situations. Offensively, Texas needs a fast start, early touches for its playmakers and consistent production to stay ahead of the chains. Arch Manning must protect the football and play a clean game to keep the Longhorns’ playoff hopes moving forward.
Score Prediction: Texas 27, Missouri 14
Mitch Lovell (5-3)
It will be a close game throughout, before a Texas turnover of Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons makes the difference. This won’t be a pretty game, and like most this season, it will come down to the wire. The Texas offense finally has a turnover-free game and squeaks out another close one.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Missouri 21
Kendrick Johnson (6-2)
Although they played one of their most complete games of the season last week, Texas is in trouble this week against Missouri.
As talented as this team is, I don’t have confidence that a beat up version of them can go to Columbia and bring a big win back to Texas when they barely escaped, almost at full strength in this same situation, last month in Knoxville. I’ve been rolling on the Arch Manning bandwagon for a while, but if he is who many say he is he will find a way to put the team on his back and lead the Longhorns to one of their biggest wins of the season.
At the end of the day, Texas’ championship caliber defense will keep the game very close but won’t be enough to get the job done. I have Missouri taking down the good guys from Austin 17-14.
I hope I’m wrong, but the facts tell me this will be another long weekend for Longhorn Nation.
Score Prediction: Missouri 17, Texas 14
