Welcome to the Texas Longhorns men’s basketball review. This will be a 3 part series with part 1 consisting of a detailed look into the 2015-2016 season. The second part will focus on the 2016-2017 season, and the third part will address the future of the Big 12 and Texas’ place in the landscape of college basketball.
Read Season in Review Part I here.
This is part 2 of a 3-part series where we dive into next season and share what Texas fans should watch for.
Next season depends heavily on Isaiah Taylor
Fans shouldn’t be shocked if Taylor “declares” for the NBA draft. Thankfully, NCAA rules allows underclassmen to declare and come back as long as they don’t hire an agent.
I’m sticking with my prediction that he returns to the 40 Acres for his senior season. Taylor’s jump shot is inconsistent and his range is only mediocre for the college game. It’s difficult to translate these deficiencies to the NBA. Not to mention he is central to the Longhorns’ success. According to Sports-Reference.com, Isaiah Taylor’s win share is 4.3. The next best returning player’s win share is Kerwin Roach at 1.7. So according to statistics, 20% of the Longhorns’s wins are based on Isaiah Taylor’s ability. That’s a chunk of wins if you think about it.
If he comes back, the Longhorns will be in the hunt for a Big 12 title. But they have some major needs to fill if they want to get there.
The Longhorns need a veteran big man
Senior Shaq Cleare will be the guy at center next season. How he treats this off-season and how he get himself in shape for Coach Smart’s system will be key because of his experience. However, Texas should look at a graduate or junior college transfer that can play immediately.
Coach Smart is recruiting well and he’s staying on top of recruiting power forward Jarrett Allen (St. Stephen’s Episcopal – Austin). The recent emergence of Kavell Bigby-Williams (Gillette College) as a slight possibility gives Longhorns fans hope that Texas will get 2 dominant big men in the paint. Bigby-Williams appears all but set to go to Oregon, and Jarrett Allen might, MIGHT (don’t freak out on me) go elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to invest in a solid insurance plan. The Longhorns will look at other junior college transfers.
I would suspect Coach Smart is considering all options with 2 scholarships, possibly 3 to work with. Tulane transfer Dylan Osetkowski will visit Texas on April 8th but he will need to sit out a season and he is also strongly considering Arizona.
Is there going to be a transfer out of the program?
Rumor is that Kendal Yancy will graduate and be a graduate transfer on a team where he can get more playing time. That’s just a rumor which at this point is mostly speculation. I wouldn’t expect any transfers as of yet.
Projected Starting 5 for the Texas Longhorns in 2016-2017
PG: Isaiah Taylor
SG: Kerwin Roach
SG: Eric Davis Jr.
PF: Jarrett Allen
C: Shaq Cleare
I do believe Jarrett Allen will commit to the Longhorns and play his first collegiate season in his hometown. Look for him to play the power forward position because Shaq Cleare will take the center role. Allen’s flexibility on the floor gives him the opportunity to play 30 minutes a game.
Coach Smart will likely go with a 3 guard lineup switching to a 2 guard lineup once Tevin Mack comes off the bench. Tevin Mack can make it interesting and keep the 3 position all to himself. However with him being the only scholarship small forward on the team, Shaka Smart will likely be forced to play a 3 guard rotation with a guard heavy team.
When Isaiah Taylor needs a rest, Kerwin Roach will take the point. Jacob Young and Andrew Jones might share the spot from time to time but Smart will be grooming Roach to be his point guard after Taylor moves on.
Recruiting Outlook
The Longhorns have 3 scholarships available for the 2016 class. Here is how I see it playing out.
1. Jarrett Allen or Bust
I was shocked at how much ground Shaka Smart made up with Jarrett Allen. Once thought to be a Kansas lock (my projection), Coach Smart has made this a contest. In fact, after unofficially visiting the Longhorns basketball program 3 times, I would feel quite confident in landing this 5-star player.
2. Graduate or JUCO Transfer
With this scholarship, expect the Longhorns to spread out the scholarships and bring in a JUCO or graduate transfer at the 3, 4 or 5 position. Coach Smart is already on the trail trying to get that transfer and I expect this to be a name no one expects until it’s official.
3. A tall SG or SF
This was likely going to be Terrance Ferguson as a longshot, but now that he officially has listed his top 6 (Spoiler: Longhorns aren’t on it), the Longhorns are going to look elsewhere for a tall shooting guard or small forward.
So the Longhorns will look elsewhere. Tyson Jolly looks to be favoring the Longhorns heavily but he likely won’t fit the mold of a tall shooting guard at 6’4″. However, the talent that Jolly can bring to the Longhorns this late in the recruiting season is something they can’t pass up.
