Staff Predictions: Sam Houston State versus No.8 Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns are set to host the Sam Houston State Bearkats on Saturday at Darrell K. Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. Texas enters the matchup ranked No. 8 nationally with a 2-1 record, while Sam Houston is still searching for its first win of the season at 0-3. Despite Texas’ offensive struggles—particularly with quarterback Arch Manning’s inconsistent passing accuracy—the Longhorns boast a stout defense, allowing just 10.3 points per game and ranking 21st nationally in total defense. Manning has thrown for 579 yards and six touchdowns but has also tossed three interceptions, and his completion rate sits at 55.3%.

Sam Houston faces an uphill battle, especially given their defensive vulnerabilities. The Bearkats are allowing 442.3 yards and 38.7 points per game, ranking near the bottom nationally in both categories. Their offense has shown flashes, particularly in the midrange passing game, but struggles on third down conversions and pass protection have limited their scoring potential. Texas is expected to use this game as a tune-up before entering SEC play, with the storyline remaining whether Arch Manning can find rhythm and consistency before tougher matchups against Florida and Oklahoma in the coming weeks.

Our staff shares their thoughts on what to expect in Saturday’s final nonconference game between the Longhorns and Bearkats.

Jameson McCausland (2-1)

It is pretty much now or never for this Texas offense. The Longhorns have to show some signs of life against Sam Houston State. The injury situation isn’t ideal, but Arch Manning has to show he can make the routine throws and move the offense down the field. 

The good news is Sam Houston State is the worst of the 3 G5 opponents Texas plays this season. I expect the Longhorns to play their cleanest game of the season to date, and I will even go out on a limb and say a shutout is coming.

Score Prediction: Texas 42, Sam Houston State 0

Aaron Carrara (2-1)

Texas must establish control on both sides of the ball early and demonstrate why they are the number eight team in the country. Offensively, Arch Manning needs to show poise and efficiency by making smart reads, avoiding risky throws, and proving the Texas offense is not one-dimensional. I see equal burden on the offensive line, which needs to show improvement as the team wraps up nonconference play and before they head to Gainesville.

Defensively, Texas simply needs to keep doing more of what they are doing….

Overall, this game provides Manning an opportunity to show leadership and command of the offense, which will be pivotal not just for this matchup, but for his continued development as Texas’s future centerpiece. Sam Houston State is 0-3 and lost each of those games by 17 points. The Bearkats are not a good football team and Texas will dominate them, but this game is about showing improvement offensively all around for the Longhorns.

Score Prediction: Texas 49, Sam Houston State 10

Devon Messinger (2-1)

While Saturday’s game against Sam Houston may not be the most exciting game for Longhorn fans, the implications may never be bigger. Of course, there are no real College Football Playoff stakes on the line, however, the Longhorns are in dire need of seeing tangible results on the field. After three games of deficiencies on offense, the team needs to see results to help bolster their confidence.

Thankfully for Texas, Sam Houston has the fifth-worst passing defense so far this season through three games. It’s safe to say this if Arch Manning and the Texas passing offense continues to struggle on Saturday, it will be officially time to hit the panic button.

Score Prediction: Texas 41, Sam Houston State 7

Marc Henry (2-1)

The Texas Longhorns are looking to get their offense rolling after a sluggish showing against UTEP. Quarterback Arch Manning managed just 114 passing yards last week, though he continues to show his athleticism as the team’s leading rusher. For Texas to find its rhythm, Manning will need to get comfortable early and spread the ball around, while the running backs must shoulder a bigger load to balance the attack.

On the defensive side, the Longhorns are playing at a high level. Safety Michael Taaffe led the team in tackles last week, and this unit has been flying around the field, shutting down opponents and setting the tone.

Sam Houston comes into this matchup at 0–3, leaning heavily on quarterback Hunter Watson, who has thrown for 310 yards and also leads the team in rushing. Watson’s dual-threat ability is the centerpiece of the Bearkats’ offense, but he’ll face an uphill battle against Texas’ speed and depth.

This is a game Texas should control from start to finish. Expect the Longhorns to use the opportunity to fine-tune their offensive rhythm while the defense continues to dominate.

Score Prediction: Texas 42, Sam Houston State 10

Jacob Campos (2-1)

If not not, then when?

A winless Sam Houston State travels to Austin to take on a Texas squad that currently has more questions than answers on offense. Despite a banged-up running back room, limited wide receiver availability and ongoing quarterback struggles, Texas needs to wake up and put together sustained drives.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Sam Houston State 3

Mitch Lovell (2-1)

Sam Houston State is the worst team on the Texas schedule and the Longhorns need to look good in their final nonconference game. After the last few weeks, who knows what to expect from the Texas offense. Manning looks like he is trying to play perfect rather than be himself. I look for Arch to let it rip more than he has and in doing so, gain some much-needed confidence. The Bearkats are overmatched on both sides of the ball.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Sam Houston 3