Despite the lone loss to the Oklahoma Sooners last month, the No. 7 Texas Longhorns (7-1, 4-1) can still accomplish their season goals of playing for a Big 12 Championship and perhaps, more. Saturday’s matchup against the Kansas State Wildcats (6-2, 4-1) is a pivotal one for both programs that are jockeying for the top position in the Big 12 standings. The Longhorns are ranked 7th in the recently released College Football Playoff Rankings but it won’t matter if they lose on Saturday.
Texas has beaten Kansas State six straight times and looks to make it seven on Saturday at Darrell K. Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium. They will have to do so with backup quarterback Maalik Murphy, against a Kansas State defense that hasn’t given up a touchdown in its last nine quarters of play.
The HornSports Staff gives their thoughts on Saturday’s game which will kickoff at 11:00 am and be televised on FOX.
Jameson McCausland (6-2)
The stakes are high on Saturday when Texas welcomes Kansas State to Austin. It’s tough to envision the Longhorns making the Big 12 title game with a loss to the Wildcats, so the margin for error is razor thin.
Maalik Murphy showed some good and some bad in his first career start against BYU, but Texas will need him to take a step forward in his second start against a good Kansas State defense. The Wildcats have been run on at times this year, so expect a lot of crowded boxes as they look to force Murphy to beat them with his arm.
Defensively for Texas, they have to find a way to slow down the QB run game that hurt them against Oklahoma. Both Will Howard and Avery Johnson will likely see time behind center, with Johnson posing the most dangerous threat with his legs.
If Quinn Ewers was available and playing, this feels like a game Texas would win fairly comfortably. But all bets are off with a backup QB. It feels like Texas will have to win this game with their defense and special teams.
Score Prediction: Texas 23, Kansas State 20
Aaron Carrara (7-1)
This is arguably the most important game of the season for Texas and Kansas State is an experienced, balanced and solid football team. In their last two games they outscored TCU and Houston 82-3. In fact, the last touchdown Chris Klieman’s defense gave up was in the third quarter of their game against Texas Tech (October 14). Couple that stat with the Longhorns starting a backup quarterback in Maalik Murphy and their troubles in the red zone, the task at-hand looks tall for Steve Sarkisian’s team.
The Wildcats will play two quaterbacks in Will Howard and Avery Johnson and the Longhorns must prepare for an offense that can beat you in the air or on the ground. For the Longhorns offensively, they need to win the time of possession and run the ball effectively to have a shot at winning this game. The Texas offensive line must protect Murphy, who struggled under pressure last week against BYU and turned the ball over a couple of times. This game is going to be a dogfight but I think Steve Sarkisian devises a game plan that utilizes all of the team’s offensive talent to get the job done and improve to 8-1.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Kansas State 20
Ryan Swantkowski (7-1)
I have one word to describe how I think this game will be: scrappy. Kansas State’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown in back to back games, yet their defense on the road has struggled much more than at home. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcat’s offense is averaging a whopping 226 yards per game as their QB’s also play a major role in the run game alongside their deep backfield led by DJ Giddens. With Texas, it obviously comes down to how Maalik Murphy plays, as it will be every game he starts while Ewers is out. He had flashes in his first collegiate start, but the Longhorns will need a much cleaner outing if they want to get it done. This game will be close from start to finish, and it may be ugly, but I have the ‘Horns taking this one just barely in exciting fashion.
Score Prediction: Texas 20, Kansas State 17
Marc Henry (5-2)
Kansas State’s impressive six-game winning streak, led by consistent quarterback play from Will Howard, will be a challenge for the Longhorns. Howard’s recent performances, throwing for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns against TCU and 164 yards and 2 touchdowns vs Houston, demonstrates his effectiveness in the passing game. The Longhorns’ defense will need to focus on generating pressure and forcing turnovers to disrupt Howard’s rhythm.
On the defensive side, Texas boasts the best run defense in the conference, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush. However, they’ll be tested by the Wildcats’ running duo of DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward, who are contributing to a running game that’s averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per rush. The battle in the trenches and stopping the run will be crucial for Texas.
The Texas offense, on the other hand, will rely heavily on running back Jonathan Brooks, who has had an excellent season with 923 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Quarterback Maalik Murphy, making his second start, will need to limit turnovers and effectively guide the Longhorns’ offense. Ball security and efficient decision-making will be pivotal for Texas, especially against a Kansas State defense that has been on a winning streak.
This matchup has all the ingredients for a competitive and exciting game, with each team having strengths that can potentially tip the balance in their favor. It’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds on game day.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Kansas State 14
Devon Messinger (6-2)
Well, we have landed at, quite possibly, the most pivotal game of the Longhorns season so far. With a win, the team can breathe a collective sigh of relief knowing that a) they have beaten the toughest team remaining on their schedule and b) should have an abundance of confidence which will be needed to round out the regular season. However, this Saturday’s game will be a big test. At quarterback, redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy will have to build off of a decent performance last weekend and, importantly, stay out of the turnover column.
The Kansas State Wildcats are not particularly skilled at throwing the football, however they have been REALLY good at running the ball, ranked fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Additionally, the Longhorns defense has not been particularly skilled at stopping quarterbacks, so Wildcats senior quarterback Will Howard will look to have a big day in the potential upset.
With all of that said, the Longhorns have been incredibly versatile this season, finding ways to win when the going has gotten tough. Texas has been able to rely on Jonathon Brooks, as well as the defense line. However, who else will step up this week?
Score Prediction: Texas 34, Kansas State 31
Todd Glawson (6-2)
The Wildcats of Kansas State head to the Forty Acres on Saturday for a series that’s seen the Longhorns win six in a row, eight of the last 10 and no losses at home since 2011. On this same weekend last year, Texas traveled to Manhattan looking for their first signature road win of the Sarkisian era which, fortunately, came to fruition. The stakes are much higher this time around, but the circumstances feel quite similar in the sense that this could be a season-defining contest. Emerge victorious and you remain on an ideal path to the Big XII title game while also improving your playoff résumé by beating a Top 25 team. Lose and not only are your playoff hopes vaporized, but your conference title outlook potentially turns bleak in a flash. Needless to say the burnt orange will have to put forth easily their best outing in over a month. Whether it’s five turnovers in the last three games (not including turnovers on downs or a failed fake FG), red zone woes that aren’t improving, Sark going through lulls as a play-caller/in-game manager or the defense having its up and downs, these problems need a solution quickly. Put whatever label you want on this staff and the team’s latest efforts, but I’m not seeing “it” currently. This is a winnable game even without Quinn Ewers under center, but I expect the recent struggles and sloppy play to be too much to overcome against a K-State squad that’s hitting their stride at the right time.
Score Prediction: Kansas State 27, Texas 24
Mitch Lovell (6-2)
Expect a game that is shortened by both teams wanting to run the ball. Kansas State has been playing great football in every phase and will provide a big test to the Longhorns. Sark will have to provide a great game plan for Maalik and the offense. The Texas defense’s ability to stop the run will be the difference maker on Saturday.
Score Prediction: Texas 20, Kansas State 17
Dylan DeRaud (6-2)
Texas will be going against the best defense they have faced since their win over Alabama. Kansas State currently ranks top-3 in the Big 12 in points allowed, rush yards allowed and total offense allowed. Maalik Murphy showed promise after his first start last week and it helps to be backed by a talented trio of receivers in Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Look for the coaching staff to continue to find creative ways to get them the ball and put pressure on a Wildcat defense that will hope to make Murphy uncomfortable in the pocket.
Kansas State’s formidable running game, led by DJ Gibbens, will undoubtedly pose a challenge to the Longhorns’ defense. The Wildcats often deploy a dual-quarterback system, mixing Avery Johnson and Will Howard, which adds complexity to their offensive strategy. Texas’s game plan will revolve around making Kansas State one-dimensional by stifling their ground attack and forcing Will Howard into obvious passing situations, where he has shown a tendency to throw interceptions. If Texas can stick to the game plan and match the physicality of this Kansas State team, I see no reason they can’t avoid the upset and continue to control their own destiny to the Big 12 championship game.
Score Prediction: Texas 27, Kansas State 24