Staff Predictions: No. 6 Texas @ No. 21 LSU

Texas hasn’t faced LSU in a football game at Tiger Stadium since 1953, with the Longhorns holding a record of 1-4 in their previous visits to Death Valley. On Saturday night No. 6 Texas (7-2, 4-2 SEC) takes on No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3) for the first time as conference rivals, with the all-time series being narrowly led by Texas at 9-8-1.

LSU secured a win in the most recent encounter between the two, beating the Longhorns 45-38 in Austin back in 2019. Entering Saturday’s game, Texas is riding a three-game winning streak following two close losses (27-24) to Oklahoma and Florida. In their last two contests, they allowed only 23 points combined to Mississippi State and Missouri. Quarterback Arch Manning has accumulated 2,024 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions and now faces an important November game in his home state.

The implications of this matchup differ for both teams. Texas can dictate its own playoff destiny – a victory would help them overcome their final ranked opponent of the regular season. Conversely, for LSU and first-year head coach Lane Kiffin, another loss, especially after last week’s home defeat to Alabama (31-13), would likely jeopardize any remaining playoff aspirations.

Current betting lines favor the Tigers by roughly four points at home, but will the Longhorns stun LSU and leave Baton Rouge with a win? Our staff shares their thoughts on how the big SEC matchup in Death Valley shakes out.

PREDICTIONS

Jameson McCausland (6-3)

This feels like a tricky spot for Texas, coming off an emotional road win last weekend and having to go on the road again. LSU is playing for their season. They must win out to have any chance at the College Football Playoff.

Missouri presented a good defensive challenge for Texas, but LSU’s defensive line is a step above what the Longhorns saw last week, and that is a concern for an offensive line that has not played consistently over the last month.

It’s really hard to pick against LSU when they are playing at home under the lights, but Texas shouldn’t be spooked by the environment. Give me an Arch Manning game-winning drive late in the 4th quarter to win this one.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, LSU 23

Devon Messinger (7-2)

After a resounding win on the road in Missouri, the Longhorns will look to win their second consecutive away game against a ranked opponent.

Last weekend, LSU fell to Alabama in a blowout and will look to bounce back against Texas. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Arch Manning and the Longhorns have started to click on offense, even without starting left tackle Trevor Goosby.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, Colin Simmons will look to put on a show against the team he rooted for as a kid. If Simmons can live in the backfield against LSU QB Sam Leavitt, the Longhorns will have solid footing on the road.

Lastly, don’t forget about home-field advantage. Death Valley is among the loudest, if not the loudest, stadiums in college football. You will likely see that have some kind of impact on Steve Sarkisian’s offense, and we’ll see how Arch handles the noise in his home state. If the gunslinger stays efficient with the ball and doesn’t try to be Superman, Texas will be primed for another key victory against a ranked opponent.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, LSU 20

Aaron Carrara (6-3)

I am eerily confident about this game for the Longhorns, which is a little scary. Death Valley is a tough place for any team to play at night, and this game is shaping up to be one that will likely be decided by a point or two. If Kyle Flood’s offensive line can hold their ground and protect Arch Manning, I like the Colin Simmons-led defense to wrangle Sam Leavitt and the Tiger offense.

The Longhorns will have to weather a hostile crowd, but they sneak away with a slim victory.

Score Prediction: Texas 20, LSU 17

Marc Henry (6-3)

Texas heads to LSU for a pivotal SEC matchup, looking to carry its momentum into a hostile Baton Rouge environment. Defensively, the Longhorns must continue forcing turnovers and pressuring the quarterback while staying disciplined against LSU’s rushing attack. Containing the quarterback run and tackling consistently will be critical.

Arch Manning needs to build on last week’s turnover-free performance, when he looked more comfortable and in sync with the offense. Protecting the football, establishing the run and sustaining drives can help Texas manage the crowd and dictate the pace. A clean offensive performance paired with an opportunistic defense could put the Longhorns in position for a crucial road victory.

Score Prediction: Texas 17, LSU 14

Mitch Lovell (6-3)

The Texas defense will be the best unit on the field in Baton Rouge. With LSU coming off their 3rd loss, they are playing for their season. Expect a defensive struggle for parts of the game but the Texas offense will have just enough to leave Death Valley with a huge win. 

Score Prediction: Texas 20, LSU 17

Kendrick Johnson (6-3)

It might be crazy to say, but I think Texas has finally found the right formula for Arch Manning and the Longhorns offense to be successful, and that will help them going forward.

After beating Missouri in a tough environment, I expect Texas to build upon the momentum they established last week this Saturday in Baton Rouge.

Junior running back Raleek Brown must continue chewing up yards on the ground, moving the chains and making big plays in the passing game when called upon. Brown’s emergence has unlocked Manning and Texas’ play action passing game which will be a problem for LSU’s struggling defense.

If Texas can simply stop the run and run the ball, combined with the Longhorns’ defense playing at a championship level, I feel like the good guys from Austin will cruise to victory at Tiger Stadium this weekend.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, LSU 14