The 2026 season begins with a local matchup that carries heavyweight expectations as No. 5 Texas welcomes Texas State to Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns and Bobcats have met only once before, with Texas claiming a 26-0 win in 1930, making this the first renewal of a series separated by 96 years – and one played just a short drive up Interstate 35 from San Marcos to Austin. Texas enters the opener coming off a 10-3 2025 campaign and carrying national-championship aspirations, while Texas State arrives after a 7-6 season looking to turn one of the program’s biggest stages into a statement opportunity.
For Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns, the assignment is to open crisp, establish the standard for a roster viewed as one of the country’s deepest and avoid letting the calendar drift toward next week’s larger challenge against the Buckeyes. Texas State is not simply making the trip north for a payday, however. The Bobcats averaged 36.5 points and 472.8 yards per game last season, producing an offense capable of testing Texas if the Longhorns are careless with possessions or slow to settle in. Saturday’s game will reveal whether Texas looks like the top-five team its ranking suggests, and whether the Bobcats can make a once-in-a-century in-state meeting competitive for longer than most expect.
Kickoff will take place at 2:30pm at Darrell K. Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN.
Predictions
Jameson McCausland (0-0)
Texas State is a step up from the Group of Six opponents Texas faced last year. The Bobcats have a good offense with some dangerous playmakers. GJ Kinne will surely have some stuff schemed up.
Defensively, Texas State was not good last year and the Longhorns should have a good opportunity to build momentum with the new weapons surrounding Arch Manning.
I expect Texas State to find some success moving the ball and put a few scoring drives together, but Texas should start pulling away in the second half.
Score Prediction: Texas 42, Texas State 14
Devon Messinger (0-0)
It’s here — a new season with hopes and dreams still reaching sky high. The beauty of Week One? There is no Ohio State to open the season like there was last year. Now, on the other hand, I can’t say much about Week Two…
However, don’t scoff at this Texas State Bobcats team. While they may be 30-point underdogs, they have a talented bunch offensively that could provide some good early-season practice for Coach Muschamp’s defensive group.
Let it be said: anything short of a convincing blowout would be a disappointment. Texas needs a confidence-inducing Week One victory before facing the nation’s top team, and with added talent at several skill positions, I think the Texas offense will hum like a hummingbird against a Bobcat defense that looked more like a housecat last season.
Lastly, keep an eye out for Texas’ production in the running game on Saturday. The opposition was 91st in the country in rush defense last season and may be the impetus for a quick start to Texas’ running game in 2026.
Score Prediction: Texas 45, Texas State 10
Aaron Carrara (0-0)
I know it’s the first game of the season, but the Longhorns don’t have the luxury of this being simply a tune-up game… not with what awaits them next week. Sarkisian doesn’t need to show the entire playbook on Saturday, and he won’t, but the offense should be able to put up a lot of points on a Texas State defense that struggled last season and has a new defensive coordinator. Texas will look to exploit the mismatches between the wideouts and defensive backs, and the running game, with transfers Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, will find a lot of success as a result of Manning’s passing abilities.
Like the Bobcats, Texas boasts a new coordinator on the defensive side in Will Muschamp. Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson will test Muschamp’s unit in the air and on the ground, and it will be one of the better matchups to watch. If Texas limits the explosive plays, I don’t see Texas State managing much otherwise.
Score Prediction: Texas 48, Texas State 17
Marc Henry (0-0)
Texas opens its home schedule against Texas State with an opportunity to establish its identity on both sides of the football. The Longhorns must control the line of scrimmage and establish the running game early, giving Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown plenty of touches. Arch Manning needs to play efficiently, protect the football and get playmakers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo involved. Steve Sarkisian must remain balanced with his play-calling and avoid making the offense one-dimensional.
Defensively, Texas must pressure Texas State’s quarterback, disrupt the timing of the offense and feed off the energy of the home crowd. If the Longhorns dominate up front, eliminate turnovers and play disciplined football, they should control the game from start to finish
Score Prediction: Texas 35, Texas State 14
Mitch Lovell (0-0)
Texas will start fast, as that will be pivotal after last year’s struggle in the first few weeks. Will Muschamp will have his defense ready to go, and look for three turnovers from his guys. The Longhorns need a good performance in all three phases of the game before Ohio State comes to town next week.
Score Prediction: Texas 49, Texas State 14
