Staff Predictions: No. 1 Ohio State versus No. 4 Texas

Texas has spent the better part of two seasons chasing this opportunity.

On Saturday night, the No. 4 Longhorns welcome No. 1 Ohio State to Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium for the sixth meeting in a series the Buckeyes lead 3-2, and for the third straight season, the programs meet with national stakes already attached. Ohio State claimed the last two matchups, including last season’s 14-7 win in Columbus, but Texas returns home after a 59-7 opening-week rout of Texas State with Arch Manning, an explosive receiver group and a chance to turn a long-awaited heavyweight rematch into an early statement for the College Football Playoff race.

The Buckeyes arrive in Austin having looked every bit the part of college football’s top-ranked team in a 56-3 dismantling of Ball State, but this is a dramatically different assignment for Ryan Day’s players. The Buckeyes will have to contend in a road environment at DKR, a Texas defense eager to reverse recent frustration, and a Longhorn offense that has already shown it can strike vertically. Manning’s 305-yard, four-touchdown opener sets up the marquee quarterback storyline against Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, while Jeremiah Smith’s ability to break free against Texas’ secondary, and whether the Longhorns can create a more dependable ground game, could decide which Top-5 team leaves Saturday with the inside track in one of the season’s defining early matchups.

Predictions

Jameson McCausland (1-0)

This feels like a very different matchup compared to a year ago. Arch Manning and Julian Sayin enter this game with much more experience and look like two of the better quarterbacks in the country. It goes without saying that Texas will need a much better offensive performance than what they displayed in Columbus last August.

The X-factor in this game is the Texas defense. The Longhorns were unable to force many negative plays in last year’s matchup, and new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp surely has some cards he didn’t show in week 1 against Texas State.

I see a very close back-and-forth game. A lot of talk this week will center around Steve Sarkisian’s lack of success against Kirby Smart and Ryan Day in his career, and what better time to break through than at home in front of what might be a record crowd.

Score Prediction: Texas 28, Ohio State 24

Devon Messinger (1-0)

If you’re gonna play in Texas, you gotta have a fiddle in the band. And, in the case of Ohio State, the Buckeyes may not only have a fiddler but also a riddler, considering how stacked the nation’s No. 1 team is. While it is still early in the season, Ryan Day’s group has proven in recent years that his teams are about as deep as they come.

In 2026, Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin may once again play the role of fiddler, directing the band with the arm that made him a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2025. Meanwhile, potentially the bigger threat is Ohio State’s riddler: junior wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has the ability to explode at any given moment.

However, if Texas wants to win a national championship, these are the games you have to win. The team’s Week 2 matchup is not only a chance to show the college football world that the Longhorns mean business, but also an opportunity to better position themselves for a prime College Football Playoff spot down the road.

It won’t be easy.

Since Texas first reached the College Football Playoff in 2023, the Longhorns have put together a 2–5 record against teams ranked in the nation’s top five. Furthermore, Ohio State has already beaten Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns twice during his tenure, winning 28–14 in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff semifinal and 14–7 in last year’s season opener.

With that being said, Texas has made significant improvements at the running back and wide receiver positions. Longhorn fans can also hope that the offensive line has improved following some reshuffling and another year of experience.

If Arch Manning can simplify things in the pocket, playing loose yet not carefree, the Longhorns’ running backs and wide receivers should put the team in a good position. However, if the Texas running game struggles or the offensive line fails to protect Manning, Texas fans could be in for a long game.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Ohio State 21

Aaron Carrara (1-0)

The Buckeyes have earned the benefit of the doubt after winning the previous two meetings and bring enough offensive balance behind Julian Sayin, a talented backfield and receiver Jeremiah Smith to keep the pressure squarely on Texas. Still, this feels like a game in which home-field edge and Texas’ offensive firepower make the difference. Arch Manning is coming off a 305-yard, four-touchdown opener, and with Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman capable of creating explosive plays outside, Texas has more answers than it did in last season’s 14-7 loss in Columbus.

I look for Manning to lead a fourth-quarter scoring drive before the Texas defense delivers the final stop to end a two-game skid to Ryan Day’s Buckeyes.

Score Prediction: Texas 27, Ohio State 24

Marc Henry (1-0)

Texas faces its first major test Saturday night when No. 1 Ohio State visits Austin. Arch Manning enters with confidence after leading the fourth-ranked Longhorns past Texas State in Week 1.

Raleek Brown, Hollywood Smothers, Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo will be key offensively. Texas must control the line of scrimmage, pressure the quarterback and limit Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson. If the Longhorns win the turnover battle, they can knock off the nation’s top-ranked team.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Ohio State 17

Mitch Lovell (1-0)

This is a legacy game to some extent for Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning. Sarkisian has brought the Texas program back to where it belongs, but he can’t fall to 0-6 against Kirby Smart and Ryan Day. Will Muschamp and the Texas defense will set the tone early forcing multiple turnovers. Manning will want to put on a much better performance compared to last year in Columbus, and will play to win versus playing not to lose like last year. He will emerge as the Heisman front-runner after scoring 4 touchdowns on Saturday.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, Ohio State 20

Kendrick Johnson (1-0)

Despite losing the last two seasons to Ohio State I think Texas finds away to finally get the Buckeye monkey off their back.

Arch Manning has the stage to show the country he is who everyone said he was in the summer of 2025, and he will use it to get the biggest win of his career while showing the world why he’s being predicted to be the number one pick in the NFL draft next spring. Texas’ defensive unit led by coordinator Will Muschamp and Colin Simmons will slow down Jeremiah Smith and company just enough for the Longhorns to get their first win over the number one ranked team in the nation since 2008.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Ohio State 13