Staff Predictions: #3 Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears

The Texas Longhorns (3-0, 0-0) and the Baylor Bears (1-2, 0-0) first played each other at the turn of the 20th century.  Since then, they have played 112 times and there has been no love lost between the two teams.  With Texas set to depart the Big 12 for the SEC after this season, it is no secret the Longhorns will get opponents’ best shots on and off the field.  The often-used cliché “Texas is everyone’s Super Bowl” rings true, particularly this season amongst teams that have struggled out of the gate like the Bears. At his Monday press conference, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda’s comment “I can’t tell you how many times this offseason I heard ‘Dave, just win this one game (the Texas game)” adds further credence to it.

The Longorns begin their Big 12 “Farewell Tour” this weekend at McLane Stadium and head coach Steve Sarkisian knows not to overlook seasoned head coach Dave Aranda or his players. 

"They are well-coached. Dave has been doing it a long time. It's his defense." -Sarkisian on the Baylor defense. Also said the Bears are big up front and can be multiple in the backend with their coverages. #HookEm

— HornSports (@HornSports) September 21, 2023

Baylor lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen to injury in the Bears’ loss to Wyoming, and Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robinson will lead the Baylor offense for the third straight week after losing to Utah and defeating Long Island in weeks two and three.

The ‘Horns and Bears are set to square off in Waco for the 52nd time, which could be the last for quite some time.  A Baylor win would be a massive upset in front of a sold-out crowd at McLane Stadium and would even the Bears’ season record at .500.  Texas is favored by 14.5 points and needs a win to continue their hopes of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history.  With a 6:30 kickoff looming under the lights, expect a rowdy crowd and both teams to fight for a win to claim the last victory between the two in the Big 12 Conference.

Baylor’s season thus far is lackluster, but can Dave Aranda draw up a game plan for the Bears that will produce a massive upset over the third-ranked Longhorns?  Will Texas fall trap to the Bears and get caught underestimating their capabilities?  The HornSports Staff shares their thoughts and score predictions on Saturday’s game in Waco.

Aaron Carrara (3-0)

The Longhorns struggled to get things going offensively last week against Wyoming but managed to put together a solid fourth quarter that was the knockout punch against the Cowboys.  Emphatically – Texas cannot wait three quarters to find their offense this week in Waco.  Sawyer Robinson has struggled at quarterback for the Bears, but on paper Baylor averages more than 6 yards per play offensively and 418 yards per game. The good news is the Texas defense has played extremely well this season and is the strength of this team so far.  Dave Aranda’s defensive mind will have his guys ready to try and stop the Texas running game that flourished last week behind sophmore Jonathan Brooks. Saturday presents a rare night game in Waco that will be televised on ABC and Baylor will hang with Texas in the first half until Quinn Ewers and the offense find their rhythym and do their damage in the second half.

Score Prediction: Texas 34, Baylor 17

Devon Messinger (2-1)

On Saturday, the game will really come down to Baylor’s quarterback play. It appears, at least according to Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, that redshirt junior Blake Shapen will be unable to suit up against the Longhorns. As a result, redshirt sophomore quarterback Sawyer Robertson will get another opportunity for the Bears, and try to improve on his three interceptions to one touchdown pass ratio. If Robertson clicks on Saturday, the Bears have more than enough weapons to make things interesting in Waco.

Meanwhile, for the Longhorns, Saturday’s game will be a mental test as McLane Stadium will be sold out and you can expect it to be loud. However, the Longhorns were able to keep their heads on straight in a tough road environment at Alabama earlier in the season. If Quinn Ewers is completing his passes around 63%, the Longhorns will be in a good spot to start conference play 1-0.

Score Prediction: Texas 34, Baylor 20

Todd Glawson (2-1)

After a shaky, white-knuckled three quarters of football against Wyoming, the 3-0 Longhorns will travel to Baylor for the last time as a conference foe. Much like the result of their first match-up in 1901, they will attempt to leave Waco in a cloud of dust with a convincing victory in tow. Baylor hasn’t been playing great football thus far and they’ve been hit with the injury bug early as starting QB Blake Shapen is sidelined and RB Dominic Richardson appears doubtful. Other than this being a night game in a sold-out McLane Stadium, the winning blueprint should be rather straightforward. Sark and Texas’ offense need to clean up several mental mistakes and re-focus coming off of an uninspiring, lackadaisical performance. Playing down to inferior opponents continues to be a lingering issue. The defense must remain locked in and prioritize stopping the run game forcing a green, back-up QB – Sawyer Robertson – to beat them with his arm. I like Texas to control the flow of this contest and cover the 14.5 points, mainly because of another great defensive effort. Hello 4-0. 

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Baylor 13

Jameson McCausland (2-1)

The farewell tour in the Big 12 begins Saturday in Waco. Baylor has looked really bad through the first 3 weeks of the season on both sides of the ball, but I fully expect the Bears to put together their best performance of the year on Saturday night. Dave Aranda will have a defensive plan in place that forces Texas to be a little uncomfortable and there is certainly a lot from the Wyoming game plan that Jeff Grimes can copy for the Baylor offense led by a backup QB. 

We have reached the point of the season where style points really don’t matter, but it would make Texas fans feel a whole lot better if the Longhorns put together a solid performance Saturday night. It might take the Texas offense a quarter or so to get going, but I expect the Longhorns to slowly pull away and open Big 12 play with a win.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, Baylor 17

Marc Henry (1-1)

The Longhorns are coming into their contest against the Baylor Bears, ranked number three in the country and have big expectations heading into their Big XII opener. Not only does Texas have national championship aspirations on their list of season goals but winning the Big XII is their first priority.

Quinn Ewers and the Longhorn offense come into Waco with potential to be one of the most explosive, high powered offenses in the Big XII conference. The Texas offense had a flawless output in Tuscaloosa against Alabama, scoring 34 points on the road in a hostile environment and Ewers had a great performance. The Lornghorns quarterback passed for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns, showing off the skill set that warranted his 5-Star rating coming out of high school. Texas has the offense to compete at a high level with any team in the country.

The Longhorns achilles heel has been their inability to come out and take control in the first half of games this season. Against Wyoming and Rice the offense started out lukewarm. In both contests, the offense sputtered early on in the first half of both games. Eventually they were able to get into a rhythm but it took until after halftime for the Texas offense to get on track. Heading to Waco to face a Baylor defensive squad who is giving up over 300 yards a game this season, getting off to a fast start is essential. Coach Sark knows he has the weapons in his arsenal to drop bombs offensively and they need to establish themselves from the first snap. 

Look for Coach Sark to get Ewers warm from the first snap by calling high percentage plays. Texas has to take the Bears’ crowd out of the game early, by establishing the running game, controlling the time of possession and establishing their dominance up front. The Longhorns have the blueprint for success to go into Waco and pull out the win.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, Baylor 14

Dylan DeRaud (2-1)

In what’s anticipated to be a hard-fought defensive battle, the Texas Longhorns will be tested in front of a sold out Mclane stadium crowd which might be the last time Baylor and Texas play for the foreseeable future. With Baylor liking to muck games up and Texas struggling to get rolling in first halves, this game could be a field goal fest, where every point is precious. 

Look to the Texas defense to be the deciding factor in this game. Baylor has struggled to score this season with a turbulent QB room. Expect T’Vondre Sweat and Jaylan Ford to leave their imprint on this game. They’ll excel in forcing Baylor into costly mistakes and that could silence the crowd. As the game unfolds, Texas will find their rhythm on offense, and their playmakers like Xavier Worthy will take over. I have Texas ultimately winning this game in big part to the talent difference and how this team has looked different mentally this season compared to 2022. 

Score Prediction: Texas 23, Baylor 13

Mitch Lovell (2-1)

The Texas defense will be ready as they have been each week this season. Sawyer Robertson only completing 45% of passes but averaging over 7 yards an attempt so they may hit a big play or two. The Texas offense has been up and down through 3 games but can’t argue with 3-0. Dave Aranda and company will test the Texas OL with looks they haven’t seen yet but Texas offense looks more like they did in Tuscaloosa and CJ Baxter has a big game in his return to the lineup. Worthy has first breakout game as well 150 yards 2 TD’s.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Baylor 17

Ryan Swantkowski (3-0)

The Texas defense will be ready as they have been each week this season. Sawyer Robertson only completing 45% of passes but averaging over 7 yards an attempt so they may hit a big play or two. The Texas offense has been up and down through 3 games but can’t argue with 3-0. Dave Aranda and company will test the Texas OL with looks they haven’t seen yet but Texas offense looks more like they did in Tuscaloosa and CJ Baxter has a big game in his return to the lineup. Worthy has first breakout game as well 150 yards 2 TD’s.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Baylor 14