The AP poll was released August 17, so it’s time to revisit our discussion of Sleeping Giants and determine who should be on our radar for a surprise breakout season in 2013.
Here’s the link to Part 1, where we reviewed the 24 teams since 2000 who have started the season unranked in the AP poll, only to finish with a Top 10 final ranking. Since 1989, at least one team has pulled off the feat every year, with the exception of 1992 and 2011.
In Part 1, we looked at three potential characteristics of the Sleeping Giant:
- Superstar Play and/or Experienced Leadership at the QB position – 20 of the 24 Sleeping Giants were led by an upperclassman at QB, and 16 of the 24 were led by a Senior QB and/or a 3rd+ year starter.
- NFL Talent – There isn’t necessarily a strong correlation between Sleeping Giants and NFL Draft Picks, but it doesn’t hurt to have a couple of potential NFL guys among the upperclassmen.
- Led by an “Up and Comer†at Head Coach – Sumlin, Harbaugh, Brian Kelly are the three most recent coaches to pull off the Unranked-to-Top 10 feat.
In between writing Parts 1 and 2, I thought of another theory. What about experience on the offensive line? There’s not a lot of data out there, but using Phil Steele’s returning Career Starts on the OL (a measure of experience), I looked at the three Sleeping Giants since 2009.
- 2012 Texas A&M ranked 10th in returning starts on the OL
- 2010 Stanford ranked 65th
- 2009 Cincinnati ranked 45th
So, that’s not too sexy. We’ll keep our focus on three areas: QB, NFL Talent, and Coaching Talent.
Who meets the Sleeping Giant criteria in 2013?
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ncarolina_RD.jpg Photo credit Rusty Darbonne
North Carolina. Dingdingding!! Incredibly, North Carolina is a team that meets all of the requirements. Bryn Renner, senior QB, enters his third season as the Heels’ starting signal caller. He’s on the Davey O’Brien watch list, and is a projected 2nd round pick in some mock drafts. UNC has two other gentlemen slated in the first two rounds of other mock drafts (OL James Hurst, DE Kareem Martin). FS Tre Boston is another kid who may get a higher draft spot if things break well in Chapel Hill. Larry Fedora roams the sidelines. Definitely an up-and-comer coach. Even though the Tar Heels will likely lose their season opener at South Carolina, the schedule provides plenty of time to turn things around. There is no Clemson and no Florida State on the Heels’ 2013 regular season schedule. REPEAT…NO CLEMSON, NO FLA STATE. The Heels will have to shore up that defense if they want to be a serious Top 10 contender. Last year UNC gave up nearly 600 yards in a 68-50 home loss to Georgia Tech, and yes I had to double check to make sure I didn’t accidentally look up an ACC basketball score. I’m calling it now. UNC finishes the season in the Top 10 after a bowl victory.
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/asu_lg.jpg Photo credit John Martinez Pavliga
Arizona State.  I’m not going to lie and pretend to know how good Junior QB Taylor Kelley is, but in his first full year under center for ASU, Kelley completed 67% of his passes for 3000+ yards, 29 TDs and 9 INTs. If he improves on those numbers, he’s got a date in NYC in May for the NFL Draft. If he makes it there, he’ll definitely be joined by Sun Devils DL Will Sutton. Sutton could have jumped to the League last year, but decided to stick around Tempe for one more season. That’s a huge get. There’s talent all over the place here. Frankly, I am surprised that Arizona State didn’t start the season in the Top 25, but that just shows how painfully little research anyone does in August. Head Coach Todd Graham is a name that will launch a million debates (and half a million profanities). The guy may be a slimeball but you have to give him credit for putting out Dennis Erickson’s dumpster fire last year. The schedule isn’t murder, but there are many possible pitfalls. The Sun Devils host Wisconsin and USC in September, with a roadie to Stanford sandwiched between. There’s an idiotic neutral site game at Jerryworld with Notre Dame in October. Why?!?! And beware the Thursday night HALLOWEEN game at Washington State. If this is going to happen, Arizona State will need to win the Pac-12 South, upset Oregon/Stanford in the Pac 12 title game, and win the Rose Bowl against…Nebraska? Assuming Ohio State goes to the national title game? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. But I wouldn’t bet my shirt on it.
Washington. Keith Price returns as a third year senior starting QB. Savvy Longhorn fans will remember the name Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who once flirted with Mack Brown before ultimately choosing Seattle over Austin. Jenkins is a 1st round talent. Or at least he was, until his DWI crash this offseason. And his recent surgery on his fractured pinky finger (not related). Steve Sarkisian has been given the unfortunate nickname of “Seven Win Steve†after finishing each of his first three seasons with – you guessed it – seven wins. The heat is turning up on his regime. Stadium renovations are complete at Husky Stadium. The track has finally been removed, and one of America’s loudest stadiums will offer even more fillings-rattling decibels. Now’s the time for the U-Dub to shine. Boise State opens things up in Seattle in Week 1. There’s no USC on the schedule, but Washington goes at Stanford and hosts Oregon back to back in October. Ouch. Although I’d rather play AT Stanford and host Oregon than the other way around. Washington’s been a big disappointment to me in recent years so I’m not comfortable at all predicting 10/11 wins for this team.
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/fresst_tamu.jpg Photo credit Stuart Seeger
Fresno State/San Jose State. Two non-BCS teams out west enter 2013 unranked, despite having possible Top-15 NFL draft picks in 2014 under center. Fresno State starts Derek Carr, younger brother of David, and San Jose State starts David Fales. Now when I started this little research assignment, I really expected that most of the Sleeping Giants since 2000 would have been small conference BCS busters, like these two teams. Not so…19 of the 24 Sleeping Giants since 2000 were from Power Conferences! I believe that the potential BCS busters we’ve all grown to know and love get on everyone’s radar early, and they usually sneak into the preseason Top 25, thus eliminating themselves from this analysis. If I have to pick which of these teams has the better shot at a Top 10 finish, it’s San Jose State. They travel to Stanford in Week 2, a place where the Spartans have had some surprisingly good showings. A win there would propel them right into the spotlight. By the way, these two teams meet Friday November 29th at San Jose. Potential BCS bid on the line? Either way, tune in to watch two quarterbacks that will soon be millionaires.
There are a couple of other teams that may fit the characteristic of a Sleeping Giant, but whom I give absolutely zero chance of winning 10/11 games in 2013.
Virginia Tech. Oh, hello again, old friends. Some long-time readers will remember my 2010 internet feud with Hokie nation over Tyrod Taylor and the 2010 Virginia Tech team. This year’s Va Tech squad is not overrated (like usual) but they’re sneaking onto some people’s sleeper lists. The reason? Another brutally overrated quarterback, Logan Thomas. I have watched this guy play, there’s no way he’s leading any team to a Top 10 finish. Thomas completed 51% of his passes last year. Unless his receivers were trying to catch the ball with their feet, this is inexcusable. I’ve asked this before – Who is the SID at Virginia Tech? Is he the greatest PR man on Planet Earth? I swear this guy could make Al Qaeda look like a lovable organization. Every year the PR wizards in Blacksburg convince media types that their awful QBs with 50% completion percentages are somehow destined for greatness. NOT BUYING IT.
https://www.hornsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/miamiu.jpg Photo credit John Martinez Pavliga
Miami. Stephen Morris is a senior. And NFL scouts are starting to drool, including this guy from NFL.com who called Morris the most talented QB in college football. But it’s been a star-crossed ride for Morris, who started 2011 by leading The U to a comeback win over Maryland, but then riding the pine behind Jacory Harris. Morris could be Joe Montana, but it won’t matter if the Hurricanes defense remains a trainwreck. Miami’s 2012 opponents hammered them on the ground. And I have zero faith in the Miami defense to stand up to the offenses of Florida, Florida State, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and others who will not be afraid to test the Canes’ manhood.
Let me know in the comments section what you think. Do you have a case for another team on your radar that I missed? Do you disagree? Let’s argue about it!
