Game Details
Date: Saturday, November 14
Time: 11:00 CST
Network: ESPNU
Location: Morgantown, West Virginia
Venue: Milan Puskar Stadium
Why You Should Care
The next two games are critical when discussing the possibility of postseason play for the Longhorns. Texas ends the season in early December with a finale against Baylor, which, lightly put, means Saturday’s matchup against the Mountaineers is a must-win. The last time the Longhorns were in the Mountain State, quarterback Case McCoy led them to a 47-40 overtime victory. West Virginia is looking for revenge for having their hearts broken twice in two years by the Longhorns.
If Vegas has anything to do with it the Mountaineers are in good shape on Saturday (as they are currently favored by 8.5 points), but Texas is looking to build off their much-needed win against Kansas. West Virginia lost four straight before notching their first Big 12 win last weekend against Texas Tech. The Mountaineers are through the toughest part of their schedule and face a friendlier November slate of conference games.
How Longhorns Win
The objective for both teams is to score first. Texas is 10-1 when scoring first under Charlie Strong, which means the Longhorns need to find a way to start fast and get a jump on one of the best defenses in the nation (according to the SP+).
Jerrod Heard is a playmaking threat that opens up the field for his teammates when he makes plays. Jay Norvell must open up the playbook and allow Heard to run, adding more short to medium routes to the wide receivers’ route-tree. The one-read go routes aren’t Heard’s strength. The on-the-fly, quick-decision plays are. Finding opportunities to support his playmaking potency is essential.
Heard needs to be able to hang his hat on the ability to get the ball of quickly so that he can make a quick reads and then tuck and run if the play is not there. This comes down to two factors, the coaches putting him in a position to succeed (as stated above) and Heard getting the ball there on time, on target and recognizing openings in coverage. It is all about keeping the defense honest. If he is able to continue with his ability to hit routes over the middle like last week, the deep route and running lanes will open up as West Virginia will have to ease up on blitzes.
Quick plays will also prevent the Texas offensive line from having to hold their blocks for very long, which has proved time and time again to be an issue for the Longhorns quarterbacks.
To help relieve some of the pressure of Heard the running game needs to work – and feed D’Onta Foreman, not Johnathan Gray. If you give Foreman the ball enough times you are guaranteed success in some way, whether it is a 4-yard per carry gain or him breaking off a run for significant yardage. Foreman reminds Rams fans, like myself, of Todd Gurley.
On defense the Longhorns’ main focus and a key to winning this game will be getting off the field on third down. Texas has been able to do two thing well consistently this year on defense: take advantage of QBs that are not mobile and take advantage of struggling offensive lines (see Oklahoma). According to Dana Holgerson the Mountaineer offensive line has been in a bit of flux after the Texas Tech game last week.
With Bedford’s propensity to blitz five or more guys, Texas’ front seven might be able to create chaos in the West Virginia backfield. The Longhorns have recorded 206 yards taken away from the opposition on sacks, which ranks seventh in the nation. Poona Ford has come out of his shell and Naashon Hughes is coming off a game where it was I consistently mistook him for Malik Jefferson.
By living in the Mountaineers’ backfield and breathing down the neck of Skyler Howard the Longhorns can keep West Virginia pinned in the backfield. This will give Howard even less time to make decisions on short and intermediate routes, a facet of his game he already struggles with. Keeping Skyler Howard and the running backs busy will hopefully allow for the Longhorns to cause mistakes leading to turnovers and 3-and-outs.
However to be able to beat West Virginia Texas needs to wrap-up and tackle well, something they don’t always do a good job of. Last week the Longhorns had 16 missed tackles which led to Kansas having more first downs than Texas, 23-20. Texas hasn’t missed that many tackles in a single game since the 2013 season.
How Mountaineers Win
As I said above the name of the game is scoring first against the Longhorns. On the flip side of the statistic, Texas is 0-11 when the opponent scores first.
This should not be too big of a challenge for the Mountaineers. Texas has been outscored 112-10 on the road this season while West Virginia has outscored opponents 187-82 at home. Put a check mark in the “probably going to score first†box for the Mountaineers. It’s an uphill battle for Texas if that happens.
In order to ensure that West Virginia takes advantage of the Longhorns’ road woes, the Mountaineers need to do one thing: keep the Texas defense on the field. Per CFBStats.com, opponents convert 48% on third downs against the Longhorns. That ranks a rotten 120th in the nation. Missed tackles along with missed assignments allowed 24 out of the last 40 3rd downs to be converted against the Cyclones and Jayhawks.
West Virginia can approach this in two different ways: Take advantage of a very young secondary that is riddled with holes and let Texas miss tackles, or run the ball against a defense that allows 4.1 yards per and around 187 rushing yards per gameThe Mountaineers rushed for 300 yards against Texas Tech last week, which provides optimism for Dana Holgerson’s new style of offense.
When WVU goes to the air game it is all about protecting Skyler Howard and enabling him to make better decisions in the intermediate passing game. In the past 6 conference games the Longhorns have recorded 26 sacks. West Virginia has been practicing inconsistent blitzing that the Longhorns love against its own defens,e in hopes it will help them handle the pressure. But a revamped offensive line may add complications. If this offensive line can keep Skyler protected then the Longhorns may be in trouble. This can be helped greatly by going up- tempo early and often, allowing the Mountaineers to limit mistakes across the line, tire out the Longhorns defense early, and catch the Longhorns on their heels. Texas has struggled against up-tempo offenses.
Howard is a passing threat, however even when he has adequate protection he has had problems with his timing. If Skyler Howard can connect on his mid-range throws more often than not, then expect him to have a big game. The Longhorns’ secondary will give him openings. It’s up to Howard to take advantage of them.
Stopping Texas on third down boils down to keeping Heard contained. As stated above Jerrod Heard is the Texas offense and it’s not even up for debate. There is a simple formula to stopping Heard: spy him and force him to win with his arm. Oklahoma State, TCU and Iowa State held Heard to 277 yards total with this recipe.
Players Who Matter – West Virginia
Skyler Howard and Wendel Smallwood/Rushel Shell
Not only does Dana Holgerson have a running back duo in Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell that combined for 300 yards, but he also has a fairly mobile quarterback in Skyler Howard. The last team Texas faced with a running duo and mobile quarterback was Rice, who tore the Texas defense to bits with the run. Getting these guys rolling on the ground against an overrated Longhorns rushing defense will put the Mountaineers on a clear path to success.
Nick Kwiatkoski/Shaq Petteway and KJ Dillion
I feel like I’m beating a dead horse, probably because I am. West Virginia needs to conatin Jerrod Heard. A large part in accomplishing this will fall on the shoulders of Nick Kwiatkoski, the leader of a stacked linebacker corps. Kwiatoski will be used to spy Jerrod Heard and Shaq Petteway will be fighting against Connor Williams and Kent Perkins to try and get into the backfield.
Additionally, playmaker KJ Dillions at Nickel will be an important part of stopping the Texas passing game and Jerrod Heard and D’Onta Foreman on the ground. KJ Dillon’s versatility will serve the Mountaineers well.
Players Who Matter – Texas
Jerrod Heard and D’Onta Foreman
We’ve reiterated this before but the entire Texas offense revolves around Jerrod Heard. This has both positives and challenges because he is an incredible playmaker, but when he struggles everyone struggles. Heard must acclimate himself to throwing more short and intermediate routes in this game or it could be a long day. The ability to sustain drives is paramount, which will allow him opportunities to break a run or throw the deep ball to John Burt. We know Heard has big play ability but it’s the in-between plays that tend to fill Texas fans with anxiety.
With Heard being key to Texas’ hope of generating any offense, it’s important to keep him protected. Tell that to the Longhorns’ interior lineman (minus Vahe). It’s almost a foregone conclusion teams will get pressure on Texas by rushing the middle of the line, so we will see Heard get flushed to the outside. To make sure the star of the offense is safe it will be up to the offensive tackles to make sure that Heard is free to run to the outside and feel comfortable against WVU’s defensive ends that gave TCU fits.
Poona Ford and Malik Jefferson
Malik Jefferson will be busy on Saturday as he will be forced to deal with an extremely potent rushing attack. Luckily, stopping the run is Jefferson’s strength. It will be up to the superstar freshman to make sure that another dual-threat quarterback doesn’t burn the Longhorns once again. As our Ryan Bridges put it, “Kansas didn’t score when Malik was in the game. You can begin and end there.â€
Along that same line of thinking (that Texas needs to stop the run), it is important for the middle of the defensive line to be steady. This holds especially true because West Virginia has experienced trouble with their offensive line this season. Expect Poona Ford (and Hassan Ridgeway) to set the tone on defense by making sure Skyler Howard feels pressure the entire game, while at the same time containing Howard and stopping the other two running backs behind the line of scrimmage.
Texas vs West Virginia Prediction
It’s an away game for the Longhorns and Texas hasn’t won on the road this season. It’s difficult to see things going well for them in Morgantown this year – they’re too young and Morgantown is as difficult a place to play as any. West Virginia gets rolling early on with its three headed rushing attack and Heard regresses back because the playcalling doesn’t include throwing the intermediate ball.
Final Score: West Virginia wins 35 – 10
