The Texas Longhorns fell short in the SEC Championship game against the Georgia Bulldogs, losing 22-19 in overtime. It was the second time Georgia got the better of Texas in 2024. The Bulldogs are a bad matchup for Texas, but the Longhorns very much had the opportunity to win an SEC title in their first season in the league. The loss needs to be put in the rearview mirror with the focus being squarely on getting three consecutive wins, which will allow the ‘Horns to play in their first national championship game since 2009.
Texas has a unique opportunity to host a playoff game in the first year of the expanded playoff format. Saturday’s contest at DKR will not be an easy one for the Longhorns, as they welcome the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers to town. This Clemson team looks different than the previous ones led by quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson, but Dabo Swinney is one of just two active head coaches with a national championship. Swinney will have the Tigers and current quarterback Cade Klubnik ready to play regardless of the 12-point spread in Vegas.
Whichever Team Wins the Turnover Battle Wins the Game
Whoever wins the turnover battle will win this football game. The Texas offense has not been the unit many thought it would be entering the 2024 season, especially of late. A large reason for that is the lack of ball security. In the last six quarters, the Texas offense has committed four turnovers. That is entirely too many, regardless of who you are playing. Against Texas A&M, the pick-six in the red zone and the fumble by Quinn Ewers in the red zone kept the Aggies in the game in the second half. The two interceptions against Georgia didn’t haunt Texas, but they put the Texas defense in terrible positions and left no room for error.
In the ACC Championship victory over SMU, Clemson won the turnover battle 2-0. The two SMU turnovers led to seven Clemson points but could have been more. Following an SMU fumble, Clemson kicker Nolan Hauser uncharacteristically missed a 44-yard field goal. Hauser would go on to make a 56-yarder as time expired to give the Tigers the win. Should Texas turn the ball over like it has lately, Clemson will make them pay. Winning the turnover battle is the easiest path for a Clemson upset victory in Austin.
Can Texas Establish the Run?
The Longhorns suffered a big loss the first week of fall practice when starting running back CJ Baxter suffered a season-ending knee injury. Baxter was supposed to be a large part of the 2024 Texas offense. That led to bigger roles than expected for Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner. Blue has talent, especially with his speed, but ball security has been an issue. Steve Sarkisian then changed things up and featured Wisner as the lead back since the Oklahoma game. Wisner has shown great ability this year but the offensive line has not helped the running game, especially against Georgia.
The success of the run game has indicated if Texas is successful as an offense. An example is in the SEC Championship, the Longhorns struggled to run the ball and therefore struggled to move the ball as a whole, offensively. SMU doesn’t run the ball like Texas does but the last team Clemson played similar to Texas’ running game was South Carolina. South Carolina has the dual-threat quarterback that Texas does not, but they still ran for 267 yards and averaged over 6 yards a carry in the 17-14 upset. If Texas can manage 5-yards a carry it will make for a long day for Clemson’s defense. The bottom line is Texas should win this game, but if they run the ball well and win the turnover battle, it’s hard to see a path to a Clemson upset.
