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Suffering celebration injuries since 2003
[colored_box color=yellow]Last Week: 7-2 Straight Up (6-3 vs. Spread)
Season: 7-2 / 6-3[/colored_box]
There’s an old adage repeated around this time each season. It is said that teams make their biggest improvement between Game 1 and Game 2. I have no idea what magic things happen to teams this week, or if that theory holds any water at all, but one thing I do know is that college football fans are at their worst after Week 1 completes.
The days that follow opening weekend are full of panic, ridiculous overreaction, and ill-advised straight-line projections of glory or disaster. As David Ash said — quoting Major Applewhite — 90% of life is bull. So, too, is 90% of college football analysis. Especially in the early season, when no one knows anything but everyone says everything.
So as we preview this week’s Big 12 action, let’s remember that Week 1 gave only a mere glimpse of our Big 12 conference friends. The key is to put on the earmuffs, cut out the bull, and use our brains and our lookin’ balls to find 8 winners in Week 2. It’s not an easy task, as we have a lot of big point spreads, unknown opponents, and tricky situations in Week 2. But after a 6-3 opening week, Around the Big 12 is not afraid of anything. After all, at this pace we’re going to end up with a .666 winning percentage!!! It’s simple math!
Let’s go Around the Big 12.
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Southeastern Louisiana at TCU (-42.5), 11:00am [FSN Regional Affiliates] – I’m not advocating a real wager against TCU here. The Frogs are far too “big play dangerous†–capable of throwing up ridiculous quick-change scores like kickoff returns or defensive touchdowns…total gambler-killers. But there’s a lot to like about SE Louisiana getting six touchdowns this weekend. (1) The letdown factor. TCU had that LSU game circled all offseason long, and now they have to get over the loss, suck it up, and line up for an 11am kickoff in a sleepy stadium against a nobody team. (2) A possible fatigue/depth factor. LSU ran 80 offensive plays against the Frogs, including 48 physical running plays. If you watched that game, you saw the toll it took on TCU late. (3) TCU’s next football game is in just 5 days, when the Frogs travel to Lubbock for a tricky conference home opener. Rest and health is on the mind of Gary Patterson, not pouring 80 points on SLU. He’ll pull starters as soon as he can. Then there’s… (4) Southeastern Louisiana might actually have a pulse on offense. Starting QB Bryan Bennett transferred from Oregon in January in search of immediate playing time. Don’t get me wrong, this game will be terrible. But when the line is 42 points it only needs to be slightly less terrible than advertised. By the way, while we’re talking TCU football…do they have a QB controversy? I liked Trevone Boykin over Casey Pachall last Saturday night. Just sayin’….
FROGS – 42 Lions – 9
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Oklahoma State (-26) at UTSA, 11:00am [FS1] – Oklahoma State continues its non-conference tour of Texas with a curious road trip to San Antonio to take on Larry Coker’s Roadrunners. This has to be a calculated effort to win over Texas recruits, right? HEY BOYS, I KNOW I’M ASKING YOU TO LEAVE THE GREATEST STATE IN THE UNION TO WASTE THE BEST FOUR YEARS OF YOUR LIFE IN BUMF&*! OKLAHOMA, BUT WHAT IF I OFFER YOU A COUPLE OF WEEKENDS IN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO IN RETURN?? On paper, UTSA has no business staying in this game, but this contest should teach us a little about the maturity of the 2013 Oklahoma State Cowboys. Your mission, Pokes, is to covertly enter the Alamodome and immediately disable all UTSA hope generators through quick precision strikes. This should leave main defenses stunned silent and vulnerable to attacking ground forces led by JW Walsh.  At this point any surviving enemy forces will flee for the safety of nearby sports bars and Riverwalk watering holes to watch other games, upon which time it shall be safe for Commander Gundy to enter on horseback and proclaim a resounding victory.
COWBOYS – 51 Roadrunners – 20
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Buffalo at Baylor (-27.5), 2:30pm [FSN Regional Affiliates] – Imagine you’re Buffalo head coach Jeff Quinn. Your team just returned from Columbus, Ohio where you had a season opening date with the #2-ranked team in the country, Ohio State. Now you take a glance at the schedule, looking forward to a well-deserved home opener…but – wait, can this be right? You’re being sent back out on the road, to Waco, Texas for an early September afternoon game (forecasted heat index of 104 degrees) against one of the most dangerous offenses in America?? Buffalo actually held their own against Ohio State after a dreadful start, which means either they’ll give Baylor a game effort, or they’re out of gas and ready to be buried. The Baylor box score against a completely outclassed Wofford team (a 69-3 victory) tells us nothing of value. But, ummm, while I’m looking at the box score, what’s with the first names of Baylor’s running backs??? Lache, Shock, Glasco, Peni, and Lynx? What the freaking hell? Are these running backs, or the cast of CATS? Speaking of horrible things, if you have a particular fetish for heat stroke, skin cancer, and non-competitive football, you can purchase 40-50 yard line tickets, 36 rows up, for $4 each on Stubhub, as of this posting. Oh, Baylor!
BEARS – 43 Bulls – 23
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Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State (-10), 5:30pm [FS1] – The KState-North Dakota State box score from Week 1 is dripping with alarming and ominous stats for Bill Snyder’s Wildcats. Kansas State rushed the ball 23 times for only 41 yards against NDSU. KSU converted only 2 of 10 third downs. Meanwhile, NDSU rushed for 215 yards and held the ball for a whopping 36:03 of game time. After the loss, a weary Bill Snyder retreated to his cold, dark, lonely office, sunk into his office chair, and stared at his desk, looking for answers. He retrieved two well-worn, clouded crystals from their satin pouch and rubbed them, as if trying to feel the nostalgia on his fingertips. He retrieved a tincture of unicorn blood. It was nearly midnight. Snyder readied the spoonful of children’s dreams, his arthritic hand trembling ever so slightly as he held it carefully over the blood splashed crystals. He had never noticed the tremble; and on another night, he might have wondered and worried about life, death, and decay. But at this moment a wizard cannot let such negative thoughts into his mind. An acrid, awful, purple smoke began to rise. A familiar smile of contentment revealed itself from within the corners of Snyder’s wrinkled mouth. “Yes, yes†said the Master. “This shall do just fine…â€
WILDCATS – 35 RAGIN CAJUNS – 20
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South Dakota at Kansas (-23.5), 6:00pm [espn3] – South Dakota has a winning record (1-0) for the first time in its history after defeating UC-Davis last Saturday. Don’t get too excited, this is just the second year that the Coyotes have fielded a football team in “Division 1â€. Kansas had Week 1 off, which allowed head coach Charlie Weis to watch telecasts of nearly all of his 2013 opponents’ opening games. Weis described his twelve hour day of doing nothing but watching college football as “a miserable dayâ€, which seriously made me angrier than anything I’ve read all week. Yo, Charlie, the only miserable college football Saturdays I can remember are any in which I was forced to watch a KU Jayhawks football game. You know who had a miserable day? The poor sap on KU’s equipment staff that had to wash Charlie’s drawers, after he spent 12 hours sitting his fat ass on that poor office chair, throwing back dozen after dozen of chicken wings dripping in grease and ranch dressing.
JAYHAWKS – 40 COYOTES – 10
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West Virginia at Oklahoma (-20.5), 6:00pm [FOX] – I wasn’t ready to jump on the “UL-Monroe might upset OU!†bandwagon last week, and I’m glad I didn’t. Oklahoma came out last Saturday night like a team hell-bent on shoving it right in the faces of all their many doubters. But here’s the problem. People seriously exaggerated UL-Monroe’s chances in that game. And now instead of admitting they were way off base, they’re giving OU way too much credit for simply doing what they should have done. Thus the line has jumped from 18 to 20.5 in the blink of an eye. West Virginia offers some interesting challenges for OU’s front seven. Charles Sims made an immediate impact on the Mountaineers ground game, with 120+ yards in week 1. Although the close WVU-W&M score was…alarming, look at the difference in performance between the 1st/3rd/4th quarters (When Paul Millard was in at QB) and the 2nd quarter, when Clint Trickett was under center. There should be NO quarterback controversy in Morgantown. And although Trevor Knight ran for 100+ yards in his Sooner debut, he was only 11 for 28 passing. Inaccurate or inconsistent QB play will kill you at some point in Big 12 play. WVU will make some waves by jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. The Sooners will control the rest of the game and tack on a late garbage TD, but they’ll never get seriously close to covering three touchdowns.
SOONERS – 34 MOUNTAINEERS – 17
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Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech (-37), 6:00pm [FSN Regional Affiliates] – As mentioned above in the TCU preview, I’m floating out a new theory this week. Tech and TCU play a conference game on a short week in Week 3, a Thursday night national television special. Both teams should be eager to get a fat lead and then get their starters some rest. Stephen F. Austin is capable of winging the ball all over the place, and 37 is a BIG number for Tech to cover, especially if Kliff Kingsbury sends a bunch of backups and rookies running onto the field in the 4th quarter.
RED RAIDERS – 54 LUMBERJACKS – 31
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Texas (-7) at BYU, 6:00pm [ESPN2] – Here’s what you need to know about betting a Texas game right now. Stay far, far away. Sure, the Horns covered a hefty 6-touchdown spread last weekend when they dispatched NM State, 56-7. But oh sweet Football Jesus, that first half… It’s not that Texas was BAD. They were just extremely, maddeningly tentative. Such a timid start can be overcome when the opponent hails from New Mexico. But until the Horns can show some aggression – hell even some RECKLESSNESS – when they first take the field, they will eventually find themselves ripe for the picking. During the NMSU game, one could only think of the Texas-OU game looming in 6 weeks. A performance like that first half, if repeated in Dallas, will mean a 28-0 deficit in the blink of an eye. Again. There’s also the concern of some lingering fundamental problems on defense, but I can’t get into that without my blood pressure meds nearby. On the other hand, Texas has speedspeedspeedspeed. Make a mistake on defense against Texas and you’re in deep doo-doo. A team capable of only home runs and strikeouts is a team upon whom you do not want to risk your hard earned money. To make things even more challenging, this week’s opponent – The BYU Cougars – remain an enigma. You could stare at the BYU-Virginia box score for the rest of the week, and you still won’t figure out how the Cougars lost in Charlottesville. BYU ran 93 (!!!) plays to 72, outgained the Cavaliers by 140 yards, and were +1 on turnover margin. Two things give me hope for a 10 point Texas victory – the dreadful play of BYU quarterback Taysom Hill against Virginia (15 of 40 passing)…and the preseason injuries to BYU’s top two cornerbacks. BYU seems to think injuries wasn’t an issue against Virginia, but Texas can (SHOULD) test the depth of BYU’s secondary in ways that Virginia could never dream of. Prepare yourselves for a stressful Saturday night, with a late score to bring breathing room, and a road cover. I hope.
LONGHORNS – 27 Cougars – 17
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