Around the Big 12 – Week of November 9

Staying just above .500 since 2003

[colored_box color=yellow]Last Week: 2-2 Straight Up (2-2 vs. Spread)

Season: 43-13 / 29-27[/colored_box]

When Oklahoma State met Texas Tech in Lubbock last week, astute readers of this column should have known to take my game prediction with the largest grain of salt. On the season, I was 1-6 picking Ok State against the spread, and an even worse 1-7 picking Texas Tech games ATS.

So to the surprise of absolutely no one, I totally whiffed on my oSu-Tech game prediction.  My score: 38-27 TECH. Actual final, 52-34 Oklahoma State. Woof. 1-7 picking Ok State, 1-8 picking Texas Tech. I haven’t picked a Tech game successfully since week 4 against Texas State, when a miracle late score pushed the Red Raiders above the -25.5 number. They won by 26. I’m that close to whiffing on the entire season on Tech. Holy cow.

I keep track of every one of my game score predictions versus actual and the variances of each. For the oSu-Tech game  I was off by 29 total points (25 – Ok State final score, 4 – Tech final score), representing a tie for my fourth-“worst” pick of the season…

Around the Big 12’s Wall of Shame, Worst Predictions of 2013

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So after that lovely walk down Nightmare Lane, I enter Week 11 with the same personal goal as Paul Rhoads – Just try to keep every game within 30 points. Hopefully I’ll be more successful than ol’ Paulie Roadkill.

Let’s go Around the Big 12!

Oklahoma at Baylor (-15), THURSDAY 6:30pm [FS1] – Welcome to the 2013 Big 12 Game of the Year. Oklahoma at Baylor. A game so big that Baylor is going tarpless at Floyd Casey Stadium for only the second time in 10 years. And you must click that link and read the article about the beloved Baylor Tarp, if for no other reason than to read the story of the disgruntled fan who says the tarp brought “mystique” to Floyd Casey. Oh my goodness….troll so hard, anonymous caller, whoever you are. Baylor has also made a hype video for Thursday’s occasion…a video that does a fantastic job of accurately depicting 2013 Gamedays in Waco. Slow and boring as sh*t, until Baylor takes the field and fires a bukkake of points all over the place. At least that’s how it’s been so far. I’ve gone from not sold to sold back to not sold again on Baylor. I just can’t get over the fact that Baylor gave up 327 rushing yards to Kansas State. Oklahoma has rushed for 512 yards in its last two games (Kansas, Texas Tech). Oklahoma can follow the K-State playbook to a T. Control the game, keep Baylor’s offense off the field, and wear down the Bears D late. It won’t be enough to win, but it will be enough to keep this game within 15 points.

BEARS – 41  Sooners – 37

TCU (-7.5) at Iowa State, 11:00am [FSN] – These are the kinds of games that keep Around the Big 12 up at night, tossing and turning. TCU is 0-4 against the spread in its last 4 games. Iowa State is 1-3. Both teams have looked completely lost. Both teams are riddled with injuries (or suspensions). Both teams have well-respected coaches who are suffering through perhaps their worst seasons at their respective programs. Neither team deserves to be trusted to cover any spread, but unfortunately you’ve got to pick one of these sleepy dogs. I’m going with TCU for two reasons: 1) Believe it or not, the QB play at TCU has been far better than the cesspool in Ames and 2) Aaron Wimberly’s injury for Iowa State continues to paralyze the Cyclone offense.

HORNED FROGS – 30 Cyclones – 20

Kansas State at Texas Tech (-3), 11:00pm [ABC] – A few weeks ago I took K-State to cover over West Virginia because I had no faith in the ability of West Va’s poor tackling defenders to control the KSU rushing attack. I have the same feeling going into this week’s KSU-Tech game. Texas Tech’s defense isn’t just getting exposed as a fraud, it’s getting pantsed and pointed at and laughed at by all the neighborhood kids. John Hubert has rushed for 281 on 49 carries in the last 3 games (5.7 ypc) and it will continue and K-State will happily add a couple more holes to a Red Raider ship that’s rapidly taking on water. WILDCATS – 32 Red Raiders – 27

Kansas at Oklahoma State (-31), 3:00pm [FS1] – Kansas is pretty lucky, if you can call a team on a 26-game conference losing streak lucky. Somehow Charlie Weis’ boys keep catching top-tier Big 12 opponents in perfect trap-game / overlook opportunities. Last week Texas had just returned from a key road test at TCU with another big roadie to WVU looming the following week. The Horns slept through a 35-13 win over Kansas and failed to cover the -27.5 spread. Oklahoma State is fresh off a season defining win in Lubbock, and next week the Pokes travel to Austin for a gigantic conference showdown. This is trap game city and 31 is wayyyy too many points for Ok State to give here. KU may be a pile of crap, but they’re a feisty pile of crap. OSU fans will be grumbling when this is 17-10 at the half, but the Pokes will cruise to a comfortable win without covering that big number. If you are a wild man, I would put $20 down on Kansas ML (Paying 45 to 1). If the Pokes’ sloppy play returns this could get uncomfortable in the 4^th quarter. Besides, I can think of worse ways to waste $20. Of course, I can also think of better ways…

COWBOYS – 38  Jayhawks – 20

Texas (-6.5) at West Virginia, 6:00pm [FOX] – Morgantown on a chilly November night. National television. Moonshine fumes wafting through the West Virginia air. Screamin’ Gus Johnson at the mic for FOX, and Dana Holgorsen – amped up on at least 6 Red Bulls, pacing the WVU sideline. All signs point to chaos. The Mountaineers pulled off a crazy win in Ft Worth last week, a game that saw WVU trail by 14 early, then take a 10 point lead after 24 unanswered points – a lead they turned around and blew in the game’s final 3 minutes before winning in overtime. That unexpected victory puts West Virginia right back in the bowl discussion, so expect WVU to throw the kitchen sink at Texas on Saturday night in a frenzied atmosphere. That sink is likely to include a heavy dose of Charles Sims, who Holgo is FINALLY utilizing (I believe I sorta begged him to do so in last week’s column). The mission for the Texas Longhorns is to block the noise and the nonsense and make this game slow and plodding and boring. Can they resist getting into a wild street fight full of haymakers and craziness? I fear not. I have a feeling this game is going to be wild and wacky – and ultimately heartbreaking, like other eerily similar mid-November roadies in 1998, 2002, and 2006.

MOUNTAINEERS – 38 Longhorns – 35