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Giving our autograph away for free since 2003
[colored_box color=yellow]Last Week: 0-0 Straight Up (0-0 vs. Spread)
Season: 0-0 (Undefeated!)[/colored_box]
It’s Game Week #1 of 2013, and I am sick.
I am sick of alternate uniform reveals. I am sick of players adding “fifteen pounds of muscleâ€. I am sick of reading message board slap fights about which fan bases are “classlessâ€. I am sick of the unfounded optimism of all the mediocre programs. And I am sick of the absurd nitpicking and hand-wringing of all the elite programs. And I’m sick of nervously worrying to which of those previous two groups the Texas Longhorns belong.
But most of all? Most of all I am sick of the losing.
Last year, after plummeting to a horrendous 21-33 record (38.8%) versus the spread, Around the Big 12 did the unthinkable and QUIT on the 2012 season. We’re not proud of what we did. We’d like to say it was a busy work schedule and loads of travel that kept us from finishing the season, but nope…it was basically the losing. Around the Big 12 learned that it’s not very fond of losing. Losing is for losers.
But looking back on last year’s disaster, perhaps quitting was just our way of doing our readers a solid. Everyone knows that gambling on college football games is illegal, and that these picks are presented purely for “entertainment†purposes only. But had you ACTUALLY USED my picks last year, you would have owed your bookie so much “entertainment†that you may have ended up “taking a trip to Belizeâ€.
So let’s just say I did you all a favor. Speaking of favors, consider this 9-0 schedule of sure-fire winners my peace offering (Only 9 games this week, Kansas kicks off next weekend…bet you wouldn’t even have noticed if I hadn’t told ya). Also, because Week 1 features so many blood-money games, I’ll also be throwing in some interesting tidbits about some of our little known FCS/Mid-Major opponents. That way, when you’re watching William & Mary at West Virginia, you can impress your friends with your in-depth college football knowledge. HAHA JUST KIDDING, if you’re watching William & Mary at West Virginia, you don’t have any friends.
I may be sick, but the cure awaits on Thursday at 5pm Central Daylight Time, when college football makes its glorious return. Been waiting to write these words for months, now, and you’ve been waiting to read ‘em…LETS GO AROUND THE BIG 12!!!!!!!
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Texas Tech (-6.5) at SMU, Friday Aug 30 7:00pm [ESPN] – QB Michael Brewer continues to deal with a lingering back injury, so Texas Tech will start one of two true freshman quarterbacks (Davis Webb and Baker Mayfield) in Week 1. You know what they say – when you’ve got two quarterbacks you really have zero. But that’s ok because SMU doesn’t have a quarterback either (rimshot). Welcome new readers, this is the kind of top shelf comedy you can expect all season long. Wait, wait don’t go. Please? I think most Texas fans wish Garrett Gilbert all the best in his senior year at SMU (along with two other Texas transfers: Traylon Shead and Thomas Ashcraft). But at some point it’s no longer libelous or mean-spirited to call Gilbert what he is – a substandard college quarterback. In today’s football, you cannot complete 53% of your passes, and throw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and expect to win with any consistency. There’s some preseason stories floating around about Mr. Gilbert, chock full of the tired clichés of redemption and development that always make for good copy in August. But history shows, it’s usually a bunch of malarkey. QBs don’t miraculously turn it around, especially after four years of consistent performance. The ever-present threat of an SMU turnover explosion makes this game untouchable, but if you’re desperate for Friday night action, remember that the Red Raiders failed to cover their last 6 games last season, and most of those weren’t even close. This just feels like a closer game than 7 points to me.
RED RAIDERS – 34 Mustangs – 31
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North Dakota State at Kansas State (-14), Friday Aug 30, 7:30pm [FOX SPORTS 1] – Usually this is where Around the Big 12 dusts off its well-worn “Bill Snyder schedules cupcakes†joke book. But let’s save the comedy routine for NEXT week. North Dakota State may be a Division 1-AA/FCS team, but they represent the absolute best of the FCS. NDSU is the reigning two-time National Champion of FCS football. The Bison bring back 26 seniors to the 2013 roster (http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/event/article/id/70856/) and NDSU has won its last 3 matchups with “big-school†FBS teams. 6-3 over Kansas in 2010, 37-24 over Minnesota in 2011, and 22-7 over Colorado State in 2012. All of those games were on the road, too. Because, seriously, who the hell would ever willingly travel to North Dakota? K-State will start off slowly, easing new QB Jake Waters into the offense by running only three different plays, instead of all four. The ‘Cats will awaken in the 3rd quarter to find they’ve got a battle on their hands. KSU QB Daniel Sams, who lost the tight race for the K-State starting job, http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/23332436/jake-waters-is-kansas-states-starting-quarterback will enter the game and play a factor somehow. A close, seemingly “unimpressive†victory will lead to drastic overreaction across the conference, as fans everywhere begin reading last rites to K-State’s 2013 title hopes. AND NOW BILL SNYDER HAS YOU RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS YOU, SON.
Wildcats – 29 Bison – 21
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William & Mary at West Virginia (-32), 11:00am [FOX SPORTS 1] – Never mind that West Virginia lost all of its key aerial components from last year’s offense. The William & Mary Tribe have as much of a chance to win this game as The Jesus & Mary Chain. Yeah! Alternative rock references…timely! I look for West Virginia to feature a relentless ground attack in 2013. With Charles Sims freshly transferred from the Univ of Houston, West Va must be feeling very good about the potential of their run game. Actually they feel so good that they’re apparently comfortable leaving returning leading rusher Andrew Buie completely off the depth chart and in redshirt purgatory. http://www.wvgazette.com/Sports/WVU/201308260284 You may have remembered Buie from such films as “200 Yards Rushing Versus Texasâ€. Despite a cupcake home opener, the defense is the reason the Mountaineers don’t cover here. The usual August sunshine pumpers tell us that the WVU defense is on the rise, but really — after 2012, is there any other direction they could possibly go?
MOUNTAINEERS – 44 Tribe – 20
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Mississippi State at Oklahoma State (-12.5), 2:30pm [ABC/ESPN2] – Dan Mullen has notched 29 wins in his first four seasons at Mississippi State, but only 8 of those victories came against teams with winning records. And four of those “teams with winning records†were Jackson State, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tenn State (twice). What I’m saying here is that the Bulldogs don’t ever beat anyone worth a damn – and Oklahoma State is worth at least one damn, possibly two. The Pokes WILL win this game. Correction: The Pokes BETTER win this game. Because if somehow they don’t – hoo boy, buckle up, that stupid SEC propaganda machine will be overheating by nightfall. The Pokes opened as a 13 point favorite, and it crept to 14.5, and it’s now walked back to 12.5. Mississippi State lost both its starting corners from 2012, and inexperienced defensive backs are not what you want when facing the Mike Gundy passing attack. With Oklahoma State you’ve always got to beware the backdoor cover, and that’s exactly what I see happening here. I take the over and the Bulldogs with the backdoor cover. I’m sure the SEC propaganda machine will find some way to spin this into a moral victory and further evidence of THAT GOT DANG SEC SUPERIORITY RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE. GFY, SEC. BREAKING: oSu starting LT Devin Davis out with Torn ACL. http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9603639/oklahoma-state-left-tackle-devin-davis-torn-acl-report-says Like I said, take Miss State to cover.
COWBOYS – 41 Bulldogs – 33
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Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma (-22), 6:00pm [PPV] – It’s fitting that the Sooners-Warhawks game will be broadcast via Pay-Per-View only, because Louisiana-Monroe likes to roll out what can best be described as football porn – the absurd, yet genius two-quarterback formation. One right handed, one left handed. Double zone read, either can throw, sometimes they throw to each other. It’s wild, baby. Click here for a SFW clip,
if you didn’t have the pleasure of watching last year’s Baylor-ULM freak show. If you’re the type of sports perv who enjoys the kinkier side of football stratagem, get out your credit card, turn the lights down low and settle into this one at 6pm Saturday night. Not only will Louisiana-Monroe throw Two QBs, One Ball at you, but you may just see Bob Stoops counter, and order Trevor Knight and Blake Bell to Shake That Bear. And if the 2013 OU defense is as flimsy as some suggest, the game might turn into a total Meatspin. As much as Longhorn fans might like to see Bob Stoops get fingerslammed, the Sooners pull away late and win comfortably. But just barely miss the cover. So there’s that. Cake farts.
SOONERS – 41 Warhawks – 20
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Wofford at Baylor (-28), 6:30pm [FOX COLLEGE SPORTS CENTRAL] – Like many of those who live in the Deep American South, Wofford College refuses to accept the concept of evolution. No, no, it’s not what you think. I mean the evolution of the sport of FOOTBALL. The forward pass remains only a bizarre theory at Wofford. In 2012, Wofford QBs combined to throw 88 passes. Over the entire season. Terrier quarterbacks completed 48 of those throws, for 663 yards. Ummm, last year Baylor gave up 45 completions for 656 yards IN ONE SINGLE GAME. I’m not sure that the boys from Wofford will understand what the hell is going on out there when the Baylor offense takes the field. But one’s thing for sure, they’re never going to stop it. All aboard the Baylor bandwagon! CHOO CHOO! Next stop: Big Mike’s house!
BEARS – 55 Terriers – 10
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Northern Iowa at Iowa State (-9.5), 7:00pm [CYCLONES.tv / Mediacom] – Though many Big 12 experts are predicting a tough year for Iowa State, Cyclone fans aren’t buying it. What they ARE buying is season tickets, to the tune of over 40,000 sold. http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2013/08/12/iowa-state-football-season-tickets-are-now-sold-out/article ISU will almost certainly welcome over 50k fans to each of their 6 home games in 2013. What’s the source of all the optimism? It might be the local Iowa sports pages, which read more like promotional cheerleading than reasoned analysis. In a prime example of how to pump sunshine, note here where the complete lack of returning experience at wide receiver is presented as….DEPTH! AND POTENTIAL! http://wcfcourier.com/sports/college/isu/iowa-state-football-cyclones-corps-of-receivers-runs-very-deep/article_de8c0480-0d3c-11e3-85a8-001a4bcf887a.html Look boys, potential is like hopes and dreams. It disappears immediately in the face of reality, reality arrives on August 31st, and the reality is Iowa State’s not that good. Northern Iowa is a proud FCS program that’s hell-bent on bouncing back from last year’s disappointing losing season. What better way to send a message than to beat their big brothers from Ames? UNI won’t quite get it done, but they’ll make Iowa State sweat – it’ll take a late Sam Richardson TD pass for Iowa State to eek this one out.
CYCLONES – 27 Panthers – 23
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New Mexico State at Texas (-42), 7:00pm [LHN] – Hey look, a team from New Mexico! An excuse to do a Breaking Bad-themed game preview, bet no one’s ever thought of that before. If Texas is Walter White – a formerly-timid underachiever who squandered focused too much time on academics while being taken advantage of in the 1980s and 1990s, only to rise to power years later and eventually be destroyed by that same power and soulless greed…. then New Mexico State and New Mexico are Skinny Pete and Badger — Utterly inconsequential and useless, existing as a college football plot element only for the occasional touch of accidental comic relief. If this game is anywhere near competitive, you may as well just Hector Salamanca the entire 2013 season, because it’s not going to be pretty. NCAA.org measures 17 different team statistical categories. Last year, New Mexico State ranked 110th or worse in ELEVEN OF THEM. http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?year=2012&org=472 There are only 120 teams in FBS football, you guys. I haven’t seen fail like that since Jesse Pinkman tried to dissolve a dead body in a bathtub. EVERYONE KNOWS THAT HYDROFLUORIC ACID EATS THROUGH CERAMIC JESSE, YOU IDIOT. The Texas running game will similarly eat through the hapless Aggie defense, leaving a disgusting puddle of quivering red goo on the field-turf of DKR-TMS.
LONGHORNS – 65 Aggies – 10
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LSU (-4.5) vs. TCU, Played at AT&T Death Star, 8:00pm [ESPN] – When this game was first announced last season, I greeted the news with a giant, “Meh.†But damn if this isn’t a fascinating Week 1 main course. This game is fascinating because of the potential ramifications of a TCU victory and what it might say about the rise of TCU and the possible decline of the Les Miles regime. Kudos to Gary Patterson and TCU for having the stones to schedule this game and give themselves a chance to prove all of the remaining doubters wrong. Much has been made of all the fresh faces on LSU’s defense, but the reason for the turnover on LSU’s defense is the fact that EIGHT OF THEM WERE DRAFTED TO THE NFL, six in the first three rounds. Which means that Les Miles recruits like an absolute witch. Which means that there’s plenty of talent. Which means, to bastardize an old DKR-ism, that sometimes young awesome is better than old average. That’s not to say that TCU’s defense is average, but if LSU successfully and consistently brings physical football to the Frogs’ front seven, I just don’t see TCU’s D holding up for four quarters.
TIGERS – 26 Horned Frogs 16
Speaking of holding up, hopefully you made it through this novel. I know we’re clocking in at nearly 2,500 words here, but hey man, sue me. I can’t help it if I’m excited about the return of college football….and it’s not like you are getting anything productive done at work this week, anyway. You should thank me for helping you kill more time. Happy Footballing, everybody!