There are quite a few more parts to this part of the game so this will be considerably longer…
Let’s start with the big men up front.
So far this year, Texas quarterback Shane Buechele has attempted to toss the pigskin 319 times.
During these throws, his opponents brought a blitz 102 times (32% of time). Of these Shane was hit (for a sack or hit) 33 times and he was pressured 52 times.
Of the sacks given up, 76% have come on blitzes.
Of the hits Shane Buechele has taken, 73% have come on blitzes.
Of the times Shane Buechele was pressured, 62% of time there was a blitz.
I’m not counting when Buechele gets flushed out of the pocket or is forced to run.
From a more general standpoint, Shane gets sacked 16% of the time when there is a blitz, he’s hit 32% of the time there is a blitz, and he’s pressured 52% of the time there is a blitz. Compare those numbers to the Texas Tech offense, which has a lot less talent on the offensive line and passes a lot more, these numbers aren’t very good.
As for who has been at fault for these hits, refer to the chart. You shouldn’t be too surprised.
The right side of the line has become a favorite way for opposing defenses to crash into Buechele. Especially that right A gap, which alone has accounted for 30% of the knocks. The entire right side has accounted for 50% of them (left side for 9%, Buechele for 13%, 23% are faultless, and everyone else for 6%).
Opponents are seeing success by occupying the right side of the line with a player coming across their faces and then sending a late blitzer in the gaps. The right side of the Texas offensive line just is not experienced/talented enough to deal with this type of blitz.
So what happens when Buechele gets blitzed or pressured and he gets the ball off?
Well, it may sound obvious, but the best way to get to the Texas quarterback both mentally and physically is to bring the blitz. There were rumblings during camp that Shane had trouble picking up the blitz. Well, they have materialized.
http://i.imgur.com/HlAVRkx.png
When there is a blitz, if he doesn’t force himself into a sack after feeling phantom pressure, he doesn’t fare too well. Shane has thrown 5 of his 7 interception when there was a blitz. In the same vein, he has notched 7 of his 16 TD’s against the blitz, but those mostly came on short, fast routes where he wouldn’t get pressured (or in the red zone where teams are sending huge blitzes most of the time).
What does that tell us? The blitz is very effective against the Texas offensive line and quarterback Shane Buechele. Tony Gibson (WVU’s Defensive Coordinator) saw this and exploited it perfectly. Luckily, D’Onta Foreman can punish teams that get too blitz happy, so teams have been somewhat subdued in their blitzes. If you can contain Foreman (like what Gibson did), then this offense becomes anemic when facing the blitz.
The good side of Buechele’s presence is that he can consistently stands in the pocket, takes a hit and manages to deliver beautiful passes most of the time (as you saw by those 2 TD’s which came on beautiful deep balls). His problems with pressure and the blitz can be chalked up to freshman inexperience.
Barring any serious regression, expect improvement in this field.
Now let’s look at Shane’s accuracy in different aspects of the game.
YRD AC = Yards After Catch
Currently Buechele is throwing for a cool 60% completion rate with the stat line of 178/298 with 16 TD, 7 INTs and 2331 yards.
https://www.hornsports.com/images/yac1234516.jpg
I mainly show this representation because it’s cool, but you can also tell that Shane Buechele has been very consistent this entire year. In fact, the trend line for Shane Buechele only has an R2 of .9935, which is statistacally pretty darn consistent.
But let’s break it down to where he is throwing the ball. Specifically boundary, field, and middle for a screen, 0-4, 5-9, 10-19, or over 20 yards.
Shane and Sterlin have made their money on the short passes.
https://www.hornsports.com/images/yac123416.jpg
They call them high percentage throws for a reason. Judging by the fact that there were 15 drops among these, the high percentages could have been even higher.
And the further out Shane goes out the more his comfort shifts away from the field side and to the boundary.
Most marvel at his ability to chuck the ball down the field with beautiful accuracy. I would agree with that – particularly if you’re talking about his ability to hit the long pass on the boundary.
When he throws over 20 yards to the boundary he is completing the pass 50% of the time with 7 TD’s. Compare that to when he passes to the field side where he is throwing for 8% (both times he’s connected there have been TDs though). Having said that, 6 of these deep balls were dropped, 3 to the boundary side and 3 to the field side. Adding these as catches would boost his percentages to 62.5% and 20% which makes him AMAZING to the boundary and decent to the field.
People have also stated that Shane has trouble over the middle. I disagree. Buechele is currently throwing for 59% over the middle and 70% over the middle between 10-19 yards. A mid-level middle pass is his bread and butter, even if they don’t go over the middle very often. Baby steps.
So, what can Texas fans take away from this? Buechele isn’t a young quarterback who has shown flashes of brilliance. He is a young quarterback who has shown mistakes, which is better. He’s impressively consistent for being a true freshman and has a dagger of a deep ball. Given time and the right progression, he could possibly turn into one of the best quarterbacks Texas has ever seen.
Next up, the speedy receivers Shane throws to.
YAC = Yards after Catch.
https://www.hornsports.com/images/yac12316.jpg
Yeah… those 8 drops next to John Burt’s number aren’t pretty. In fact, drops have been a huge factor that have kept this group as a bunch of highly talented wide receivers instead of the best wide receiver corps in the nation. 24 drops – each one of them killing a drive, stopping a touchdown, or even going into the hands of a defender.
Other than that, this is a perfect indicator of how deep this receiving corps is despite playing in a run-first offense. It’s like a salad of talent. There is no clear-cut “plat principal.”
The closest thing to that “plat principal†would be Armanti Foreman. He’s tied for the most touchdowns, used often in every single phase of the passing game, and currently leads the team in yards. However, I still wouldn’t call him a clear leader for the receivers.
The most explosive receiver is obviously Devin Duvernay. He almost gains an average of 11 yards AFTER the catch (YAC). Duvernay has been Shane’s best target down the field, catching 3 touchdown pases on 6 targets for 218 yards. 111 of those yards came after the catch (YAC).
Although Duvernay is his best target, he isn’t Buechele’s favorite. That mantel belongs to Armanti Foreman and Dorian Leonard, who both have 11 targets over 20 yards.
http://i.imgur.com/o90ICPz.png
To my surprise, the go to guy from 10-19 yards has been the Collin Johnson. Johnson is 9/16 with 2 TDs and 148 yards when he gets the ball beyond the chains. The next closest guy to him would be Armanti Foreman whose line is 4/12 for 91 yards and one drop.
Between the chains, Jake Oliver has shined by pulling in over 80% of the passes thrown his way, taking them for 267 yards. That’s 10.7 yards a catch and 7 yards after the catch. For comparison, Devin Duvernay only averages 8 yards per catch and 5 more after that.
http://i.imgur.com/IofR32F.png
When it comes to which receiver is most well rounded, it becomes tough to decide. But I think it certainly comes down to the slot receivers, Devin Duvernay and Jake Oliver.
Both are tied for highest catch percentage in total for players over 20 targets at 73%. Jake Oliver is a better guy in the short range and Devin Duvernay is a better deep threat. Jake Oliver has caught more balls, but he’s also dropped 3 of them compared to Devin’s big fat 0.
