The Longhorns are facing the Northern Iowa Panthers on Friday in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. Here are 5 things the Longhorns must do in order to advance to the round of 32.
1. Keep Panthers below 45% FG shooting
The last 8 games, the Longhorns’ opponents are shooting 53% from the floor. In the two recent blowouts by Kansas and Baylor in Austin, the teams shot over 60%. Good defense wins games. It’s not necessarily breaking news but it’s more important for the Longhorns given the poor defense they have played recently.
When Longhorns opponents shoot at or above 45%, the Longhorns are 3-7.
2. Shoot over 45% from the floor
The Longhorns have shot over 50% only 3 times this season. They are not a very good field goal shooting team. That’s okay, because it hasn’t mattered for most of the season. The number for this game is 45% for both teams. Why it matters for the
Longhorns is because when shooting above 45% the Longhorns are 10-3 this season.
Good shooting doesn’t just matter for the Longhorns against Northern Iowa, it’s an imperative to win.
3. Have the Panthers attempt at (or above) 20 three pointers
If you haven’t guessed by now, this is high level statistical analysis to understand the edge in this game. The Longhorns have played 23 games in which their opponents attempted 20 or less 3 pointers. In those games, the Longhorns are 15-8. Above that level, the Longhorns are 5-4. Northern Iowa has attempted at least 20 three pointers in 23 of their 34 games. So why would the Longhorns want Northern Iowa to shoot more three pointers? Because in the games they have shot less, the Panthers are 9-2.
Northern Iowa shooting more 3 pointers could be a good thing for Texas.
4. Get 10+ offensive rebounds
When the Longhorns get 10 or more offensive rebounds, they are 8-4. Given the size difference for the Longhorns, this should be an area that the Longhorns take advantage of. Cam Ridley’s presence should really help in this department.
5. Isaiah Taylor gets 6+ free throw attempts
When Isaiah Taylor gets to the line, the Longhorns are more likely to win. When Isaiah Taylor has 6 or more free throw attempts, the Longhorns are 10-3. Furthermore, Isaiah Taylor scored 10 or more points in 12 of these 13 games. It’s important for Taylor to get to the line.
