The Texas Longhorns are ranked as the number one team in College football for the 2025-26 season on the AP Top 25 and the AFCA Coaches Poll, but they will be underdogs in their Week 1 matchup on August 30th. Texas will be on the road against the reigning champion Ohio State Buckeyes as +105 underdogs on the moneyline and +2.5 underdogs on the point spread.
Texas and Ohio State are currently co-favourites to win the National Championship at +500, so a lot will be riding on this opening matchup. The winning team will likely shift ahead in both betting odds and overall rankings. This marks the first time in College Football history that the top ranked team in the nation will be an underdog for their Week 1 matchup.
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The Longhorns are coming off two consecutive playoff appearances, but will this finally be the year that they get over the hump and reach the National Championship game? Despite losing numerous players this past NFL draft, head coach Steve Sarkisian has done an excellent job of recruiting and acquiring players through the portal system. The roster is arguably as strong as ever, but all eyes will be on new lead quarterback Arch Manning.
Arch Manning is the nephew of legendary quarterbacks Eli and Peyton Manning and looks like a star in the making as the projected number one overall pick in next year’s draft. Texas has all the raw talent in the world, but winning a championship with little veteran experience will be a difficult task. Manning is a red-shirt sophomore who has only made 90 career passes, so he still has quite a bit to prove.
Manning has waited patiently for his shot playing behind quarterback Quinn Ewers the past two seasons, and he will make the offense much more versatile with his skill as a runner. The Longhorns have also done an excellent job filling in holes at defense this offseason, and their secondary also has the potential to be one of the best in the nation.
Texas’ new lead quarterback will be going head-to-head with Buckeye’s star receiver Jeremiah Smith in Week 1, two players who would be competing for the top spot in the 2027 NFL Draft if Manning chooses to stay another year in Texas. Ohio State has lost just one home opener since 1978, and this will be Manning’s first road start of his college career.
The over/under on wins for Texas this season is set at 10.5. They have a much more difficult schedule than last season, opening up against the Buckeyes on the road and facing the Georgia Bulldogs on the road later in the season. Georgia is 47-1 at home since 2017, so with two projected losses there will be no room for error the rest of the way. The Longhorns will also match up with Florida who is ranked 15th and Texas A&M who is ranked 19th on the AP top 25.
