Staff Predictions: Texas vs. #16 Baylor

Texas and Baylor will meet for the 111th time on Saturday, with the Bears being favored over the Longhorns by 2.5 points.  The Longhorns look to get back in the win-column after losing two straight while Baylor hopes to continue a solid season under second year head coach Dave Aranda.

Will Baylor send the Longhorns back to Austin with their third-straight loss or does Texas have what it takes to pull of a road upset win?

Our staff shares their thoughts on what they think will be the outcome of Saturday’s game at McLane Stadium.

Devon Messinger (4-3)

On Saturday, the Longhorns will look to avoid a third straight loss to a ranked opponent as they face the 16th-ranked Baylor Bears. Baylor is led by junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon, who has played an efficient brand of football, throwing for 12 touchdown passes to just one interception.

While Baylor has looked solid offensively, the X-factor in this game will be Texas’s offense. Can the Longhorns extend drives and convert on third downs against the nation’s 17th-best third down defense? If Texas’s offensive line can create enough of a push on early down plays, particularly in the second half, they will be in a decent position to win on the road.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, Baylor 27

TFloss32 (4-3)

As Texas heads to Waco this weekend, we’re looking at a team on an incredibly frustrating two-game losing streak and talking about maintaining bowl eligibility, as opposed to massive victories that would’ve put Texas in the national spotlight and Bijan Robinson’s Heisman campaign on front pages everywhere. That’s how cruel college football can be, and how quickly fortunes can change {shoulder shrug}. Two things immediately come to mind when I examine this match-up: 1.) it’s a situation where I would usually expect a reeling squad to lose a tough game on the road, so naturally they’ll do the opposite and bounce back with a sound victory 2.) Baylor has an OK State feel in the sense that they’re probably ranked as a better team than their actual play suggests. All of that being said, I still don’t feel confident enough to pick a victory for the good guys even though they’ve won five of the last six in this series. That rings even more true if Casey Thompson’s throwing hand isn’t ready to go, the offense stalls again after a fast start – Tech is the only Power 5 team Texas has outscored in the second half this year – and if Kwiatkowski’s defense continues to give up big plays. The Horns will need one of their best efforts yet, coming off of a (hopefully productive) bye week, against an experienced bunch of Bears. 

Score Prediction: Baylor 41, Texas 34

Jameson McCausland (5-2)

Texas desperately needs a win in Waco Saturday afternoon to get the season back on track. Baylor has been the biggest surprise in the Big 12 this season and Dave Aranda certainly has the Bears headed in the right direction. My biggest concern for Texas heading into this game is the ability for the offense to move the ball against the Baylor defense. Terrel Bernard and Dillon Doyle are two of the best linebackers in the conference and will be a tough test for the Texas offensive line. If Texas is unable to establish the running game with Bijan and Casey Thompson is forced to win the game with his arm, it is going to be very tough for the Longhorns to walk out of Waco with a win.

I have gone back and forth on this pick all week, but I simply do not trust the Texas offense right now against a quality defense.

Score Prediction: Baylor 27, Texas 24

Aaron Carrara (4-3)

Dave Aranda has his Baylor Bears tied for second in the Big 12 while the Longhorns are sitting in 5th place and are looking to avoid their third straight loss.  Baylor racks up almost 500 yards of offense per game and has a pretty solid defense that ranks 33rd nationally in total defense.  If Texas can show up for four quarters on both sides of the ball, I like their chances of winning on the road this Saturday.  They haven’t shown they can muster the fight for four quarters and hold onto a lead, particularly against quality opponents, which is why I think Baylor wins this one.  Texas starts fast again and takes a lead, but Baylor comes back and wins by a field goal.

Score Prediction: Baylor 37, Texas 34

Tristan Larsen (5-2)

After devastating fins quarter collapses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, Texas now gets the privilege of taking on 14th ranked Baylor. Each team comes in fresh after enjoying a bye week thus the coaching brilliance of each should be on full display. Texas and Baylor are two of the premier rushing teams in the country this year with each being ranked in the top 12 nationally in terms of yards per carry. While Texas has maybe the best running back in football with Bijan Robinson, Baylor has a top tier tandem with Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner. Each teams signal caller plays clean football as well with each quarterback posting at least a 3:1 TD:INT ratio as well. This will come down to which defensive line can withstand the others rushing attack on a consistent basis. Texas is due though right? They’re due for one of these games to finally go their way. In Waco, the Longhorns avoid .500 and get the upset on the Bears.

Score Prediction: Texas 27, Baylor 24

Mitch Lovell (5-2)

Texas is able to do just enough to top the improved Baylor Bears. If Thompson looks more like he did vs. Oklahoma than Oklahoma State, the Texas offense should have more sustained success.  I think that will be the difference-maker in this game.

Score Prediction: Texas 28 Baylor 24