Iowa State travels to Texas tomorrow for what is arguably the most important game of the season if you are a fan of the team that wears burnt orange and white. Texas is trying to keep its hopes at a Big 12 title appearance alive and win 9 games for the first time in a long time. Doing so won’t come easy, as Matt Campbell has the best defense in the conference and a multitude of weapons on offense. If Texas can stick to the fundamentals and play assignment-sound football, it wins. That’s a big if, however. Here’s how the HornSports staff feels the matchup will end:
Daniel Seahorn (4-6)
This is a tough one for me. On one hand, Texas gets this Iowa State team at home and without starting running back David Montgomery for a half. On the other hand, Iowa State presents a tough matchup for both sides of the ball as they are very well-coached.
The Cyclones are led by freshman signal caller Brock Purdy, who has played well this season (1315 yards, 13/2 TD-INT) and also has WR Hakeem Butler. Add David Montgomery to this and it forms a very good nucleus of talent, offensively. With the Texas defense struggling mightily to slow down offenses the past few weeks, I’m not confident they will find a ton of success on Saturday unless they are able to rattle the freshman early and get him uncomfortable.
While I do expect the Texas offense to be able to have success against ISU’s defense on Saturday, I expect there to be a little more resistance than in the past couple of weeks. The Cyclone defense has allowed 30 or more points on three different occasions this year (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech), but they also managed to hold West Virginia to 14 points.
I was conflicted on which way to go this week all things considered, but I’m going to go with the Longhorns on senior day to squeak past Iowa State and move to 8-3.
Prediction: Texas 34, Iowa State 28
Jameson McCausland (6-4)
I fully expect another close game at DKR on Saturday night. Iowa State and Texas are pretty evenly matched, with the Cyclones holding the edge on defense. My biggest worry when it comes to Texas is the offense needing multiple drives to adjust to what the Cyclones are showing on defense. If the Longhorns are without Collin Johnson for a second straight game, it’s hard to envision Iowa State letting Lil’ Jordan Humphrey beat them one-on one-like Texas Tech did.
Defensively, having Brandon Jones back would be huge for the Texas defense because it would allow PJ Locke to slide back to nickel. Todd Orlando says all the right things about making adjustments, but now it is time to show it on the field.
In the end, I think Texas does just enough to win this game and keep their Big 12 championship hopes alive.
Prediction: Texas 31, Iowa State 28
Aaron Carrara (8-2)
Texas is dealing with the injury bug right now, as key players are questionable to play against Iowa State on Saturday. The Cyclones have won five in a row and have the firepower on both sides of the ball to make it six straight. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy is efficient in the air and on the ground, and Texas will have their hands full in stopping him.
Todd Orlando’s defense gave up almost 600 yards of offense last week against Texas Tech. The Longhorns came out on the wining end against Tech despite the poor defensive play, but it won’t happen often with those stats. Orlando and Tom Herman need a fix, and they need it quick if they intend to finish the season strong.
Both teams are still in the hunt for a Big 12 Championship and neither can afford a loss. Iowa State tailback David Montgomery is suspended for the first half, which is a significant loss to the Cyclone offense. It’s senior night at DKR, and Sam Ehlinger has been nothing short of spectacular lately, which is why I like Texas to pull off the win.
Prediction: Texas 38, Iowa State 34
Harrison Wier (4-6)
This is easily the most important matchup of the year for Texas. Make no mistake, Iowa State is no slouch. In fact, they are probably the most difficult matchup Texas will have this season. A large portion of the reasoning behind that assumption is Matt Campbell. His team is disciplined and will play fundamental football. Add that discipline to the talent on the Texas roster and you have yourself a well-rounded sqaud.
On offense, Matt Campbell found a gem in Brock Purdy. It is quite the story to go from a third-string afterthought to the star of the Iowa State offense. It is another story entirely to do that and put up the numbers that Purdy has accumulated this season. Purdy has thrown for 13 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions on the season, amassing a passer rating of 192.0 (!) along the way. On top of that, Purdy has weapons all around him — namely Hakeem Butler and David Montgomery. Fortunately for Texas, Montgomery will be suspended for the first half of Saturday’s matchup due to an altercation in last week’s matchup with Baylor. The Texas defense will have to account for Hakeem Butler for four quarters, however. I’m sure Todd Orlando has a plan, but Butler has not been stopped all season. If the Iowa State offense gets in a rhythm, it’s hard to stop.
On defense, the Cyclones play fundamental football. They can stop the run and certainly have the secondary to stop Sam Ehlinger’s reliance on Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson. The Longhorns must establish the run game early so that it can open up options through the air. The Longhorns have been extremely efficient on offense for most of the season, but have also had stretches of 3-4 possessions at a time with no success. That can’t happen on Saturday.
Ultimately, I don’t think the Texas defense can stop Iowa State enough to give the Longhorns a chance. The Texas offense will be stopped several times on Saturday, and I don’t see the defense being able to uphold their end of the bargain. I hope I’m wrong, and will gladly take the heat that comes with being wrong. But until the Texas defense proves they can make some stops, I don’t trust them to give the offense an opportunity to stay in the game.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, Texas 34
