Scouting Report: Mississippi State

A little over 3 years following the news that Texas would be joining the SEC, the first conference game is finally upon us. The #1 Longhorns will host Mississippi State to open Southeastern Conference play. The Bulldogs have had a rough go at it recently, with current coach Jeff Lebby being the 3rd head coach in 3 years following the passing of Mike Leach in 2022 and the firing of Zach Arnett last year. Lebby inherited a team with almost no returning production coming off a 5-7 season. After a season-opening win against FCS Eastern Kentucky, Mississippi State was run over by Arizona State and Toledo before dropping their SEC opener last weekend against Florida.

Offense

Baylor transfer Blake Shapen suffered a season-ending injury last weekend against Florida, meaning true freshman Michael Van Buren will make his first career start against Texas. In relief of Shapen last week in the 4th quarter, Van Buren went 7 of 13 against a Florida defense that was more than happy to concede the short and intermediate passing game in exchange for the clock running out. Lebby brought his usual veer-and-shoot offense to Starkville, so expect a lot of tempo and the running game to be featured. Van Buren is mobile but mostly looks to throw when he gets outside the pocket.

Another blow on the injury front was Lebby announcing RB Keyvonne Lee would be out for the Texas game. The Bulldogs feature a 3-man rushing attack, and Lee ranked second in yards per carry (4.8). Johnnie Daniels (32 carries for 158 yards) and Davon Booth (36 carries for 133 yards) will be left to pick up the slack. The longest carry for an MSU RB this year is 18 yards.

Louisville transfer Kevin Coleman Jr. is the leading receiver (22 catches for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns). Jordan Mosley (13 catches for 202 yards) is the only other receiver with double-digit receptions.

Despite a veer-and-shoot system predicated on timing throws and tempo to tire out opposing defenses, the Mississippi State offensive line has already allowed 13 sacks this season. Florida racked up three last week and is one of the worst defenses in the country. If there was a game for the Texas pass rush to show up, it is this one.

Defense

Former Texas assistant Coleman Hutlzer is the defensive coordinator. He did a good job during his one season in Austin as co-DC/LB coach, but his defense in Starkville has struggled mightily. The Bulldogs have surrendered over 400 yards in each of their last 3 games and have registered only 3 sacks and 1 interception on the season.

Mississippi State allows over 5 yards a rush attempt, and the defensive line play has been subpar all season. The linebacker play hasn’t been much better, but Stone Blanton will flash from time to time.

Florida completed 26 of 28 passes last week at close to 10 yards per attempt. That is horrendous pass defense and the Bulldogs may be without their best safety Isaac Smith on Saturday. Mississippi State ranks 122nd nationally in opposing passer rating, meaning QBs have had a field day all season.

Final Thoughts

Mississippi State has traditionally had a handful of players you had to watch out for and gameplan around, but that is not the case this year. The Bulldogs are not a good football team, and oddsmakers agree by making Texas a 38.5-point favorite on Saturday.

The big question will be whether Quinn Ewers returns on Saturday. It shouldn’t matter when it comes to the outcome of the game. If Texas plays to the level they have shown through 4 weeks, the Longhorns should be able to put the game away by the end of the 3rd quarter regardless of who is playing QB.