WHO: Texas Longhorns 4-7 (3-5) vs #7 Baylor Bears 9-2 (6-2)
WHEN: Saturday December 5, 2015 at 11AM
WHERE: McLane Stadium, Waco TX (ESPN)
ODDS: Baylor -20
The Good:
Baylor’s offense rolled into this season and picked up where they left off. The Bears rank first in scoring and yards per game due largely to the fantastic play of Baylor receiver Corey Coleman. The junior from Dallas posted ridiculous numbers this season including 1300 yards receiving and 20 touchdowns. The Bears have also received great efforts from KD Cannon and Jay Lee who added 1500 yards and 14 touchdowns between the two of them. The real key to the Baylor offensive success has been the balance with their run game which ranks 10th in the nation in yards. Shock Linwood has long been one of the most underrated players in the Big 12, and the do it all back added 1370 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage this season keeping opposing teams completely off balance. When Baylor wants to get the tough yards they run Linwood in behind the mammoth Laquan McGowan, a 6’7 410 lbs. tight end. On defense the Bears have shown improvement, and Travon Blanchard is quietly one of the biggest playmakers in the conference. The Baylor defensive line is big and nasty and can cause issues with Shawn Oakman or Andrew Billings up the middle. Baylor suffered two road losses this season to Oklahoma and TCU, but are nearly unbeatable by the Brazos. We should also mention the kicking game as a big plus. Freshman Drew Galitz has been a sensational punter this year, and Chris Callahan is a reliable place kicker.
The Bad:
While the Bears haven’t suffered a high number of injuries this season, the ones they have suffered are huge impacts. Baylor is down to third string quarterback Chris Johnson after losing Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham to season ending injuries. Johnson kept the ball rolling against Oklahoma State, but struggled to pass in a messy game against TCU. The Baylor defense is also susceptible to big plays at times and could be without a couple of key players including Orion Stewart and Beau Blackshear due to injury. Baylor is inexplicably worse at defending the run at home and have a higher rate of penalties inside McLane stadium.
The Uncertain:
Early on it looked like Baylor was going to make the run into the playoff, but they just couldn’t sustain after the injuries mounted up at the quarterback position. A loss last week in Fort Worth may provide a bit of a hangover. While Baylor could still have a nice bowl ahead of them, their season goals were dashed and washed away with the rain at TCU. If Texas can put together a sterling performance coupled with a Baylor let down, they might be able to catch the Bears in a bad position. We’ve also yet to see what Chris Johnson truly is as a quarterback. He was great against Oklahoma State coming on in relief of Stidham, but awful against TCU. Was that an issue of ability or just the messy weather that seemed to plague everyone on that night? Art Briles has been able to plug and play just about anyone into his offense and make them a star, but the Longhorns have shown the ability to throw some different looks at young quarterbacks and frustrate them before.
What’s at stake:
Baylor would love to get that 10th win here and give themselves a chance for a nice bowl bid. Texas is playing strictly for pride, but a shocking win in Waco could end the season on an upswing and show recruits that the Texas program isn’t dead yet.
