Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6, 1-6) march into Austin on Saturday with hopes of winning their second Southeastern Conference game of the season. The Longhorns and Wildcats have played only one time previously, in 1951, with Texas squeaking out a narrow 7-6 victory in Austin.
Kentucky defeated Murray State last week in Lexington 48-6, breaking a four-game losing streak. Texas left Fayetteville with a 20-10 victory, improving to 9-1 and 5-1 in the SEC. The Wildcats must win out to secure a bowl game invitation, and the Longhorns must win on Saturday to keep their hopes of an SEC Championship invite and College Football Playoff appearance alive.
For Steve Sarkisian’s team, the margin for error is slim to none. And the Longhorns will likely have their hands full with a well-coached, talented football team. Despite the losing record, Kentucky has played SEC teams well this season. They defeated Ole Miss in Oxford and lost to Georgia by just one point (13-12 in Lexington). Their defense ranks in the top 25 in five categories: redzone defense (6th), fewest first downs allowed (11th), punt return defense (12th), scoring defense (21st) and kickoff
return defense (23rd).
Sarkisian has mentioned this game as the most important one of the season for Texas, and he is right – especially with the Longhorns likely needing to win out to likely be one of twelve teams to make the playoff.
The Wildcats are hoping to play spoiler and notch another bid road win like they did in late September against Lane Kiffin’s Rebels. Will the Longhorns buckle down and take care of business over a team in which they are favored by 20.5 points? Our staff weighs in on how they think the game will play out with final score predictions.
Jameson McCausland (9-1)
Kentucky has played well against all the big opponents they have faced this season. The Wildcats won at Ole Miss and played close games against Tennessee and Georgia. The only SEC games in which they were beaten soundly were a 31-6 loss to South Carolina in week 2 and a 48-20 loss at Florida.
With the Texas A&M game looming and Kentucky coming off playing an FCS opponent, the Wildcats are catching Texas at a good time. Luckily for the Longhorns, the Wildcats have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball despite some good skill players and Texas continues to look like one of the best defenses in the country. Even if the Texas offense takes a while to get going, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Kentucky scores enough in this one without the benefit of multiple turnovers. For as shaky as the Texas offense has looked at times, the Longhorns have protected the ball well the last few weeks.
Give me Texas in a game where the Longhorns slowly pull away in the second half.
Score Prediction: Texas 31, Kentucky 14
Aaron Carrara (9-1)
Call me optimimistic but I feel like at this point in the season, the Longhorns seem to be the healthiest they have been all year. This will be a significant factor as the regular season winds down and postseason play begins. As far as Kentucky is concerned, give Mark Stoops his due for being a good head football coach. He has a really good defensive mind and this Wildcat team embodies that. They pulled off an upset win at Ole Miss, lost by a point to Georgia at home and hung tough with Tennessee in Knoxville. They will come to Austin ready to play.
Texas doesn’t need any motivation – they know they must continue to win if they want to continue to play in December. There is a lot of noise about strength of schedule, but a 9-1 overall record in the SEC as November winds down is nothing short of impressive. The Texas offense has had a lot of room from error thanks to the play of Pete Kwiatkowski’s elite defense. With that said, Quinn Ewers doesn’t need to be “great” on Saturday, he just needs to be “good.” The ‘Horns have forced multiple turnovers in five straight games headed into Saturday’s game and I expect that trend to continue.
In the last three seasons Texas has only lost three games at DKR-TMS. All three losses came at the hands of top 5 ranked teams at the time. Yes, despite the overt (unfounded) criticism of the Longhorns this season, I feel like they are still one of the best teams in the SEC. They win this game and cover the 20.5 point spread while doing it.
Score Prediction: Texas 41, Kentucky 17
Devon Messinger (9-1)
Last weekend’s game against Arkansas featured a fair share of ups & downs from the Texas offense. This week, against Kentucky, keep an eye on the connection between Quinn Ewers and Isaiah Bond. It took a while for Bond to be implemented into the offensive game plan against the Razorbacks, and I would expect a heavy dose of the Alabama transfer early against the Wildcats.
Meanwhile, the Kentucky offense has struggled, ranking 109th in the nation in scoring with 21.9 points per game. If the Texas defense can continue to make opposing quarterbacks suffer, the game will be fairly straightforward. With a consistent game from the Longhorns running backs and Quinn Ewers, Steve Sarkisian’s team should have no worries taking care of an opponent that is 4-6 this season..
Score Prediction: Texas 27, Kentucky 10
Marc Henry (9-1)
Texas welcomes Kentucky to Austin for an SEC clash, aiming to maintain their stronghold on the conference. The Longhorns will look to stay the course offensively and defensively, continuing the strategies that have propelled them to success this season.
The dynamic backfield duo of Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue has been pivotal for Texas, offering a lethal 1-2 punch in both the running and passing games. Their versatility has kept opposing defenses off balance, and Texas will need to lean on them once again to generate offense against a tough Kentucky defense.
Defensively, the Longhorns have been dominant, allowing fewer than 12 points per game. This stingy unit will be tested against a balanced Kentucky offense. Containing their ground game while limiting big plays through the air will be critical for Texas to secure the win and maintain their position in the SEC standings.
Score Prediction: Texas 42, Kentucky 10
Dylan DeRaud (8-2)
I liked what I saw out of Texas in their win over the Razorbacks. What really stood out to me was the toughness displayed by the Longhorns in a road rivalry game in Arkansas. Both the defensive and offensive line were physical upfront and didn’t let the shift in momentum later in the game throw them off. This same kind of physicality will be needed against Kentucky. The Wildcats have underperformed this season but their defense has kept them in close games against Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Facing the 27th best pass defense and a top 10 red zone defense, watch for Texas to lean heavily on the run with Jaydon Blue behind an o-line who will set the tone for the game.
Score Prediction: Texas 34, Kentucky 14
Mitch Lovell (9-1)
Kentucky has struggled to score this year and they haven’t scored more than 20 points in conference play. Texas has an elite defense which should hold Kentucky in-check all day. It’s senior day meaning likely the last home game for Quinn Ewers and many other players. Look for Ewers to have a big day and the offense will cruise headed into the Lone Star Showdown next week.
Score Prediction: Texas 31, Kentucky 10