Texas lost what some considered a must-win game versus Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. That loss was the fifth loss in the last 6 games for the Longhorns. That left many wondering if they would even make the first four in Dayton. In part due to chalk in the mid-major conference tournaments, Texas’ bubble didn’t pop. In fact, they find themselves in the same spot they did exactly one year ago. Last season, Texas lost to Sean Miller’s Xavier team in the first four, so the team should be familiar with Dayton Arena. The good news for Texas is that the bad losses don’t count for anything now, and it’s essentially a new season for the Longhorns.
Texas will face North Carolina State, with the winner earning a trip to Portland to face BYU. This is a rare rematch in the NCAA tournament, as Texas beat NC State in Maui 102-97 back on November 26th. While there is familiarity between the two teams, a lot has changed since their meeting in late last year. The Wolfpack have lost 7 of their last 9 games, putting them squarely on the bubble like Texas is. Will Wade is in his first season as head coach, similar to Sean Miller at Texas, but one difference is that expectations are higher for basketball at NC State than at Texas. It’s fair to say Sean Miller’s debut season is already a success. A majority of NC State fans wouldn’t call Wade’s debut season a success should he lose the play-in game against the Longhorns.
Can Texas Avoid a Poor Start?
In the last three games, Texas found themselves trailing big early on. When you put yourself in a hole early, it makes it extremely difficult for yourself. Against Ole Miss, it seemed that Texas came out with minimal energy, and Ole Miss took it to them early. The Longhorns battled back to get within five points in the second half, but it was too little, too late. If Texas does the same in Dayton, they will be going home before the round of 64 once again.
In the first matchup, Miller’s squad was able to put together a good first half. That didn’t happen as often as you’d like to see this year for Texas. Taking a 10-point lead into the second half, they were able to hold on. NC State put up 60 points in the second half – that is something that should never happen in college basketball. Unfortunately, it was a sign of things to come with the poor play of the Texas defense. If the ‘Horns allow 60 in any half against NC State again, they will have no shot in Dayton. Limiting the turnovers, which have been an issue of late, will be important versus the Wolfpack.
Will Texas Be Able to Limit NC State’s Three Point Shooting?
NC State has the 12th highest three-point percentage in the nation at 38.8%. That will put a shaky Texas defense to the test. In the first matchup, the Wolfpack shot 9-19 from three. Texas is allowing its opponents to shoot 36% from three, which is an awful statistic in this matchup for the Longhorns. If the Wolfpack gets hot from three, it will take an incredible offensive performance from Texas to walk away with a win. NC State better shoot much worse than the 47% from the three they shot in the first game.
There have been two glaring issues for Texas this year on defense. The first one is communication. If you don’t communicate on defense in basketball, you will get tormented for 48 minutes. When you watch film of the Texas defense, you see plenty of wide-open shots. If you don’t guard the opponents, they will score in bunches. Fouling is the other issue. And not just fouling, but fouling three-point shooters. NC State is a good enough offensive team without the fouls, but with them, the advantage flips quickly to them. This is a fairly even matchup, but the Longhorns must play their most complete game in some time if they want to extend their postseason into Thursday.
