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In what may very well be the final Thanksgiving day game for Mack Brown as the Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns, the once top-10 Red Raiders now try to end a four game losing streak in Austin. Thursday will be Senior Day, Thanksgiving, and a big conference matchup between two teams fighting for a quality bowl matchup. But a hot topic right now is the future of Mack Brown at Texas.
Rumors are swirling that Mack’s ready to go and that this will be his last year and thus his last Thanksgiving game AND his final game coaching at DKR. Let that sink in for a moment. We could be seeing Mack’s final steps on the turf at DKR as the Head Coach at Texas. There are many great memories of fantastic games and amazing players that have played under Mack Brown. From Ricky’s Heisman dash to Vince and Texas’ epic comeback against OKState in 2004 to Jamal Charles’ 216 4th quarter rushing yards in a comeback against nebraska in 2007…so many great memories and great highlights and great games are now etched in the history of Texas football under Mack Brown. If this is his final game as head coach at DKR, let’s hope it’s a happy farewell.
OFFENSE:
Case McCoy, Mike Davis, Donald Hawkins, Trey Hopkins, and Mason Walters all play their last game at DKR as Texas Longhorns in what is a favorable matchup against an on-paper inferior opponent in all aspects of this matchup.
Tech brings in a poor statistical defense as they rank 87th against the run (186.5 ypg) and 65th against the pass (228 ypg) as they rank 78th overall. That is a defense that has holes that can and should be exploited throughout the game.
On Texas’ side of the ball, they enter the game ranked 47th in passing (247 ypg) and 41st in rushing the ball (192.7 ypg). Obviously Texas’ strength has been running the football, however the recent loss to injury of Jonathon Gray will be a stone in the shoe of the running game as it takes away the preverbial two-headed monster that he and Malcolm Brown had become prior to that. Moreover, just this week Daje Johnson was announced to have been suspended for the Thanksgiving game due to a violation of team rules, which takes a lot of the speed and diversity from the backfield.
Enter Joe Bergeron and Jalen Overstreet. Bergeron was solid in spelling Malcolm B. against OKState, as he rushed for nearly 50 yards on 10 carries. Overstreet, who has played very little since leading the team in rushing in the opening week, could very well be called on to be that speed option out of the backfield for a few carries.
With the options at RB being thinner than usual, I expect Major/Mack/Wyatt to turn to Case and the passing game to move the ball and score. Mike Davis, who finally had a resurgence last week as he hauled in 9 catches for 112, is sure to be called on early and often along with Jaxon Shipley and Marcus Johnson.
Let’s be honest here, Case played a poor game against OKState. He doesn’t play well against the better defenses, especially the ones who create turnovers. Thankfully for him, Tech has only intercepted 7 passes on 390 attempts. That’s one per every 55.7 pass attempts. That’s pretty good news for Case and the fans of Texas as there shouldn’t be near fatal heart attacks every time a ball flies out of his arm.
I would expect Case to have plenty of success against this defense. I also wouldn’t look for Swoopes to have much, if any, playing time against Tech as Mack will want Case to go out on Senior Day with as much PT as possible.
Stat Predictions:
McCoy: 27-39 340 yards, 4 TD 1 INT
Swoopes: 2-3 25 yards, 3 carries 35 yards
Brown: 23 carries 142 yards, 1 TD
Bergeron: 7 carries 45 yards 1 TD, 3 rec. 45 yards
Overstreet: 5 carries 32 yards, 1 rec. 14 yards
M Davis: 7 rec. 93 yards 1 TD
Marcus J: 5 rec. 103 yards 1 TD
Jaxon S: 8 rec. 76 yards 2 TD
Kendall S: 4 rec. 23 yards
Harris: 1 rec. 11 yards
DEFENSE:
When you look at the overall body of work of the Texas Longhorns defense, it’s apparent that they have had issues with stopping the run, specifically having a hard time stopping a running quarterback. That’s good news when it pertains to this game.
Texas Tech may have a high powered passing attack, but what they lack is any resemblance of a rushing attack. Tech brings in the 104th ranked rushing attack in the nation, averaging only 123.7 yards per game on the ground. What they lack on the ground, however, they make up through the air as they throw for an average of 400.2 yards per game, first in the nation in that category.
Now, believe it or not, with as poor as Texas has played defensively throughout the year, they have statistically been very good against the pass as they rank 25th in the nation in yards surrendered through the air at 207.2 yards per game. Now I realize that a lot of that has to do with the fact that most teams that we play against have chosen to run the ball more than pass it, but you still can’t overlook the fact that Akina’s backfield has kept the opponent from throwing the ball all over the place against them.
In the Texas secondary, it’s been apparent that teams like to pick on sophomore CB Duke Thomas more than they do any other member of the secondary. As atheletic as Thomas is, there are plays where he does get beat in one-on-one matchups, specifically on deep in-routes and slants over the middle. The key here that I think we will see is for the D-Line to get to the QB quickly and for the LBs to ensure that the middle of the field is accounted for.
I think the three players that will have a great opportunity to make plays this game are Jackson Jeffcoat, Cedric Reed, and Steve Edmond. We all know that Jeffcoat and Reed are both outstanding at what they do as they have made life miserable for opposing QBs thoughout the season, but Steve Edmond is a different story. Edmond has had a rough go as a linebacker through most of his career, until Greg Robinson came along and seems to have actually started to teach him how to play that position. While Edmond still has his issues playing assignment football when it comes to zone-read plays, he has always been above average when he dropped back against the pass. Look for Edmond to have at least 1 interception and several key pass break ups.
The secondary will be tested and will probably give up one or two long pass plays due to youth and not having experience against passes much of this year. But I think overall this team will find a way to keep Tech from meeting their statistical average across the board.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Texas takes a big hit this week as they lose their star punt returner in Daje Johnson. But even without Daje, Texas’ special teams is still a plus as they have an almost automatic 3 point machine in Anthony Fera, who happens to be a finalist for the Lou Groza award as best kicker in the nation.
Kendall Sanders will have an opportunity to showcase his kick return skills early and often as I do expect Tech to kick the ball off several times due to field goals and a few TDs. While I won’t look to see a TD on a return, I would be surprised if Sanders didn’t return at least one kick beyond the fifty yard line.
Fera: 3/3
OVERALL:
Thanksgiving day games are a huge tradition for Texas. While aTm is no longer on the agenda, this day is still important and holds many memories for the Longhorn faithful.
Texas matches up very well against this Texas Tech team. The only thing that gives me doubts about this game is the mindset of the players. I have no idea what the players are actually thinking about this game and this team and this season right now. Are they seeing any writing on the wall in regards to the future of Mack and the Texas football program? Is the Daje Johnson/Chet Moss suspension an indicator of the team’s current focus, or lackthereof? What about the report that Major threw Mack under the bus at the luncheon? What does that mean? I don’t know, but it worries me. If the team’s focus isn’t there, then it’s not a good sign for the rest of the season. But I don’t know the answers to any of those questions, so I can only base my predictions on facts and use that information to envision how I think the game will turn out.
If Texas comes out focused and plays like it has recently and like it can, the Longhorns will put this game out of reach by the fourth. If any of my concerns hold any water, this game could be the exact opposite. Based on what the Longhorns are capable of versus what Tech has done, I think Case will have a game similar to the West Virginia game as he turns into a gun slinger in his final home game. I also feel that Malcolm will get his touches and will produce. Bergeron will spell Brown well and we may even see Swoopes on a drive or two when the game is out of reach.
Regardless of how the final game turns out, enjoy it. This may be the last you see of Mack as the Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns at DKR.
[colored_box color=yellow]SCORE PREDICTION:
Texas: 51 Texas Tech: 32
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