Longhorn News/Discussion (Non-Recruiting)

[drgilbert]

 

[Sirhornsalot]

ESPN's pre-season top 25 is complete BS. Tennessee at 15? Are they on crack?

5 of top 10 is SEC. 7 of top 15. 10 of top 20. As you can see, it's a complete set up which will help the SEC teams enormously through the season. When one loses to another, hey, it was against a ranked SEC team! ESPN stacks the deck this way every single year.

We beat Georgia, yet they are at 3 and we're at 24. Okay, Hook'em.

 

[BWilk55]

9 hours ago, Sirhornsalot said:

This is based on FPI, which is a computer model. Texas hasn't looked good in computer models based on all of our close wins - against bad teams (ex. Tulsa) and good teams (ex OU). FPI is also dinging us because of our lack of returning starters for next season. 

I think people who have actually watched our team from last year understand why FPI has us underrated. We lose a lot of "starters", especially on defense, but have plenty of highly talented and experienced guys replacing them. We didn't close out our easy games or big wins well last year but had those games well in hand. I think this is why you see us ranked higher in polls created by humans and we will be lower in anything put together by a computer algorithm.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

This is based on FPI, which is a computer model. Texas hasn't looked good in computer models based on all of our close wins - against bad teams (ex. Tulsa) and good teams (ex OU). FPI is also dinging us because of our lack of returning starters for next season. 

I think people who have actually watched our team from last year understand why FPI has us underrated. We lose a lot of "starters", especially on defense, but have plenty of highly talented and experienced guys replacing them. We didn't close out our easy games or big wins well last year but had those games well in hand. I think this is why you see us ranked higher in polls created by humans and we will be lower in anything put together by a computer algorithm.

Poppycock. OU is at 6 and they're replacing a Heisman QB and have a defense that will be worse than last year.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

 

[okiehorn]

Poppycock. OU is at 6 and they're replacing a Heisman QB and have a defense that will be worse than last year.

And replacing 4 OL that were arguable one of the best OL in college football last year.... that’s huge 

 

[Junior Bonner]

Poppycock. OU is at 6 and they're replacing a Heisman QB and have a defense that will be worse than last year.

Valid point.

And bonus points for using "poppycock" in a post.

 

[Bear19]

I like that word. 

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Sugar Bowl rings

 

[drgilbert]

 

[BWilk55]

Poppycock. OU is at 6 and they're replacing a Heisman QB and have a defense that will be worse than last year.

Not saying I agree with it but just reminding that these are computer models. FPI probably likes OU a lot more than us because they had many more big wins than we did. Even our "easy" games were close in final score and our big wins, even though we held big leads, ended with close scores. 

I think FPI has us severely underrated because our stats don't accurately how good our team was last year and will be this coming season.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Not saying I agree with it but just reminding that these are computer models. FPI probably likes OU a lot more than us because they had many more big wins than we did. Even our "easy" games were close in final score and our big wins, even though we held big leads, ended with close scores. 

I think FPI has us severely underrated because our stats don't accurately how good our team was last year and will be this coming season.

Poppycock, part deux

OU lost their first big game to Texas.

Before that, they struggled against Iowa State,  almost lost to Army (AT HOME). They gave up more points to halfway in the season than many teams give up in a whole season.

After Texas, they barely get by Tech who fought KU for the cellar. Barely beat their rival (by 1 pt),  Beat WVU by three. Gave up 40 to KU. Then in their biggest game, they got rolled by the Tide.

I understand what you're saying. You're trying to make sense of something that does not make sense because it is corrupted.

 

[BWilk55]

Poppycock, part deux

OU lost their first big game to Texas.

Before that, they struggled against Iowa State,  almost lost to Army (AT HOME). They gave up more points to halfway in the season than many teams give up in a whole season.

After Texas, they barely get by Tech who fought KU for the cellar. Barely beat their rival (by 1 pt),  Beat WVU by three. Gave up 40 to KU. Then in their biggest game, they got rolled by the Tide.

I understand what you're saying. You're trying to make sense of something that does not make sense because it is corrupted.

I agree. It's impossible for a computer algorithm to be created that can truly assess a football team. Too many factors in play. Texas did not have a season that looks good statistically but we know from watching it was a very good season (with some unfortunate hiccups). All season, FPI had us underrated so it is not surprising that the predictions for next year (which use last years results) have us underrated.

 

[UTfish]

They just haven't figured out how to measure heart and desire, yet.

 

[oldhorn2]

I tell you what....I am just as P.O.ed as those computer models that we didnt finish teams off. I will never understand why. In the current system perception is reality. If people( I mean recruits, writers, classmates etc) think one team is Godzilla because they are beating the snot out of teams, then in the end they are ,in fact, Godzilla. Why oh why do we continue to let teams off the mat?

My hope is that the staff will use this as a motivation to do better and as a teaching point to coach ....uhhh....meaner or whatever you want to call it....do like St. DKR....NEVER take your foot off the gas....just send in the second string(i.e....fresh troops) and keep on going......then send in the third string (i.e. even fresher troops that are damned excited).

While it may be true that teams have to play their way into a Title, they have to first be VOTED on to even have that right.....never forget the lesson of 2008!

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I agree. It's impossible for a computer algorithm to be created that can truly assess a football team. Too many factors in play. Texas did not have a season that looks good statistically but we know from watching it was a very good season (with some unfortunate hiccups). All season, FPI had us underrated so it is not surprising that the predictions for next year (which use last years results) have us underrated.

There are too many things hidden from the power of a computer. I suppose computer models still have a 50-50 on getting it right somehow. But thats not terribly good odds.

Computer models said Manhattan would be flooded by 2012. Turns out, they were cooking the numbers. Trash in, trash out.

Well in this case instead of NOAA cooking the numbers, its ESPN. Just look at their poll. smh

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I tell you what....I am just as P.O.ed as those computer models that we didnt finish teams off. I will never understand why. In the current system perception is reality. If people( I mean recruits, writers, classmates etc) think one team is Godzilla because they are beating the snot out of teams, then in the end they are ,in fact, Godzilla. Why oh why do we continue to let teams off the mat?

My hope is that the staff will use this as a motivation to do better and as a teaching point to coach ....uhhh....meaner or whatever you want to call it....do like St. DKR....NEVER take your foot off the gas....just send in the second string(i.e....fresh troops) and keep on going......then send in the third string (i.e. even fresher troops that are damned excited).

While it may be true that teams have to play their way into a Title, they have to first be VOTED on to even have that right.....never forget the lesson of 2008!

In all fairness, DKR had the luxury of coaching prior to scholly limits. Depth was never-ending.

 

[UTfish]

In all fairness, DKR had the luxury of coaching prior to scholly limits. Depth was never-ending.

True, but consistently winning is a bigger factor with depth in talent than scholarship limits.  We are going to have to show that we can win consistently before we can truly compete with 'Bama, Clemson, tOSU, and, yes, even Georgia for depth in talent, regardless of scholly numbers. 

 

[BWilk55]

I tell you what....I am just as P.O.ed as those computer models that we didnt finish teams off. I will never understand why. In the current system perception is reality. If people( I mean recruits, writers, classmates etc) think one team is Godzilla because they are beating the snot out of teams, then in the end they are ,in fact, Godzilla. Why oh why do we continue to let teams off the mat?

My hope is that the staff will use this as a motivation to do better and as a teaching point to coach ....uhhh....meaner or whatever you want to call it....do like St. DKR....NEVER take your foot off the gas....just send in the second string(i.e....fresh troops) and keep on going......then send in the third string (i.e. even fresher troops that are damned excited).

While it may be true that teams have to play their way into a Title, they have to first be VOTED on to even have that right.....never forget the lesson of 2008!

It was very frustrating to watch games that we didn't easily put away (Kansas, Tulsa) or hold on to big leads we built against top competition (OU, Georgia). In some cases it came down to poor execution and silly mistakes that let these teams keep games close. To a degree, particularly OU and Georgia, we shifted strategy to try and run down the clock and we didn't execute well on offense or defense. 

With continued improvement by the team overall, I think we perform better in these situations and the computer models will probably like us better. Not that computer models matter all that much, winning matters the most, but they do often go hand in hand.

 

[Coot]

If LSU is ranked #4 and UT is ranked #24, LSU should come to Austin as a big favorite. I would be very happy to have that happen.