In case anyone is interested, the SEC spring meetings are this coming week. For whatever reason, the conference has decided not to announce the conference distribution numbers at the spring meeting. They will instead be released in October, at the end of the conference's fiscal year.
I am convinced the reason for this change is that SECN numbers are falling far short of projections and the conference wants to hide the embarrassment of the struggling financial situation of SECN by releasing the info during the football season when they can say "But look at how well the teams are performing on the field. Next year, we project HUGE numbers." Remember that when SECN was launched, the projections were for $1.40 inside the SEC footprint and $0.25 outside the footprint. I, among many others, pointed out there was no way aggy in the SEC could entice cable providers to pay $1.40 for the Texas market. 8 million Texas households at $1.40/mo would translate into $135 million per year. There is no way in hell that much was going to be paid for crappy SEC OOC games padded with compelling programming such as Redneck Spelling Bee or Collegiate Bass Fishing.
According to Disney's federal securities filings, last year SECN pulled in just over $400 million in subscriber fees. Assuming the 47 million out of footprint number and $0.25 per was correct, that means the out of footprint revenue was roughly $140 million. That means the SEC footprint revenue was roughly $260 million. Using Clay Travis' numbers of 28 million subscribers in the SEC footprint, allowing for the price Travis claimed for out of footprint and using Disney's federal filings as total subscriber income, it looks as is last year SECN was paid about $0.77 per subscriber in the SEC footprint, or about half the rate they were asking for. Considering the cable providers in the heart of the SEC would be very much willing to pay the full asking price, it seems the price paid for SECN in the Texas footprint was probably, at best, one-third of what ESPN/Disney was asking.
According to Disney's most recent federal securities filings, the SECN subscriber revenue is off slightly, due to cord cutting. Ad revenues may have been optimized slightly to make up for the loss of subscriber revenue, but at best, total revenue will be flat. My projection for SECN revenue this year is around $7 million/school, or about the same as what West Virginia is getting for their T3 deal.
No one waits to release good news. The SEC is waiting to release the financial performance of SECN. You do the math.
By the way, projections have LHN breaking even this year. Between the three components of the LHN contract, the LHN minimum guarantee is right at $43.5 million.