Controlling Chaos

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…with apologies to Andy Williams, it’s almost bowl season. Courtesy of a win in Stillwater over Oklahoma State, the Texas Longhorns have already secured bowl eligibility. Now the question is where, not if.

With a big showdown versus TCU looming on Thanksgiving night, there is a dizzying array of bowl scenarios possible for the Horns. By following through on all the different outcomes, it appears that Texas will play in the Russell Athletic Bowl, the AdvoCare Texas Bowl, or the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Based on the following infographic, it appears safe to eliminate the Cactus bowl as a potential destination.

Based on predictable Big 12 outcomes, here is an assessment of those three bowl destinations:

Assumptions for remainder of season:'”

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[*]West Virginia beats Iowa State

 

[*]Baylor beats Texas Tech

 

[*]Kansas State beats Kansas

 

[*]TCU beats Iowa State

 

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Those outcomes result in the following conference standings…'”

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[*]TCU 10-1/7-1

 

[*]Baylor 10-1/7-1

 

[*]KSU 9-2/7-1

 

[*]OU 8-3/5-3

 

[*]Texas 6-5/5-3

 

[*]West Virginia 7-5/5-4

 

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https://www.hornsports.com/images/bowlpossibilitites_sm.jpg

Based on that selection order, here are the assumptions that were followed to arrive at the results:

1. At 11-1/8-1, the winner of the Big 12 goes to the 4-team College Football Playoff

2. Since they would not make the 4-team playoff, KSU would play in a NYD bowl if they win the Big 12

3. Any 10-2/7-2 Big 12 team that is not in the playoff will be invited to play in a New Year’s Day bowl game (ex: Cotton)

4. The Texas Bowl selects their Big 12 team based on conference standings (without respect to preference of team/matchup)

The “top-down” factor determines the downstream bowl destinations. Think of the bowl selection hierarchy like a domino chain…until the first domino is pushed over, the rest of the chain is meaningless.

It’s November, so expect chaos in the last two weeks of the season. College football history repeatedly proves to fans that unexpected results are the norm at this time of year.

How the following teams finish their seasons and how they stack up in the final playoff poll will have a direct impact on which bowl game Texas plays in:

Alabama: vs Auburn; SEC championship game

Oregon: vs Oregon State; vs UCLA (Pac 12 championship game)

FSU: vs Florida; vs Georgia Tech (ACC Championship)

Mississippi State: vs Ole Miss

Ohio State: vs Michigan; Big 10 championship game (Wisconsin or Minnesota)

Ole Miss: vs Mississippi State

UCLA: vs Stanford; vs Oregon (Pac 12 championship game)

With two weekends of games left, the biggest determinants in Texas’ bowl destination are:

1. Whether or not a Big 12 team is selected for the playoff. If not, suddenly the Cactus Bowl comes back into play as a possibility.

2. Will the Texas Bowl select the Longhorns due for financial reasons, despite being lower in the conference standings?