Making public apologies since 2003
[colored_box color=yellow]Last Week: 5-0 Straight Up (2-3 vs. Spread)
Season: 32-7 / 22-17[/colored_box]
We’ve completed 6 weeks of Big 12 football, so it’s time for a gambling progress report and calibration. Time to see which teams I’ve figured out, and which teams are giving me fits.
2013 has not been the unmitigated disaster of 2012, but there’s still plenty of time to veer into the ditch. I guess it’s no surprise that Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, who one could argue are having the most “surprising†seasons to date, are giving me the most problems. Texas Tech and Ok State account for 8 of my 17 losses against the spread. DAMN YOU, MASCOTS ON HORSES.
[ws_table id=16]
(Note– Total W/L by team are higher than number of games played overall, since 9 conference games are double counted.)
So now we move to Week number 7. You could make the case that Week 7 features the 4 best Big 12 teams versus the 4 worst, and thus the high point spreads. That’s right, Texas fan, we’re one of the four worst teams in the conference. But if you have a pair of eyes, you knew that already.
Let’s go Around the Big 12.
Oklahoma (-14) vs Texas, at Dallas, 11:00am [ABC] – If this were any other year, I’d tell you that the Sooners are ripe for the picking in Fair Park this Saturday. Defensive leader and starting middle LB Corey Nelson is likely out for the year after a pectoral injury against TCU. If you watched the OU-TCU game, you saw Oklahoma turn into a hopeless mass of confusion on defense after Nelson’s departure. Guys staring at the sideline, the Stoops brothers frantically trying to get guys in position…It was shocking and instant. Speaking of mass confusion, have you seen Texas linebackers lately? Just look for the players running around lost like an electric football figurine. If you dare, I encourage you to re-watch the 4th quarter of the Iowa State-Texas game, and focus solely on the Texas linebacker play. It will make you cry real human tears. I have no idea what these guys are doing out there. If they are coached at all, they’re certainly not being taught anything about gap assignments. And these issues are compounded by a shocking lack of athleticism and absolutely no instinct for attacking the ball carrier. They look like they play the game on roller skates. And that is NOT a compliment. Basically this game will make Junior Seau or Derrick Thomas roll over in their respective graves, but guess which team will execute a game plan designed to effectively attack the other’s glaring weakness? Yep, you’ve seen this movie before…
SOONERS – 38 Longhorns – 16
Kansas at TCU (-25), 11:00 am [FSN] – Kansas jumped out on Texas Tech 10-0 last weekend, and oh, did Twitter jump all over that one. I must have seen 100 “upset alert†tweets vomited into cyberspace well into the 2nd quarter, even though Texas Tech began to completely exert their will immediately upon falling into the 10-0 hole. How bad was it for the Jaybags? KU rolled up 104 yards and 10 points in their first two possessions. In their next 8 possessions? 26 plays, 36 yards. And one of the
. Seriously, there might not be another display of total domination like that the rest of the Big 12 season. Somewhere there are TCU fans still holding out hope that the Frogs will finally put things together and play a complete game, but I hope they’re not holding their breath. The Frogs were atrocious on offense in the first half against Oklahoma, but then kinda-sorta started making some hay late in Norman, although some of it had to do with the aforementioned Corey Nelson injury. The Frogs played with less sloppiness, which is encouraging, but I still feel the TCU offense is prone to long naps, and that’s why they won’t cover 25 against a terrible KU team.
HORNED FROGS – 34 Jayhawks – 13
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-14), 11:00am [FS1] – Congrats, Iowa State, you are one of the most careful teams in the country. The lack of mistakes and the discipline are admirable, but perhaps Paul Rhoads needs to hold his playcaller to the same high standard. The end of the Texas-Iowa State game has been talked to death, but I felt that Iowa State let the Horns off the hook throughout the game with questionable 3rd down playcalling. Texas linebacker play is historically bad, why throw on 3rd and 3 from the 6 yard line? Texas absolutely could not stop the run. The game should have never come down to Big 12 Refpocalypse 2013. Texas Tech really impressed me with the game at Kansas last week. Sometimes it happens, you go out on a road trip and it doesn’t start well. Some teams will panic and wet their drawers and it’s all downhill from there. Tech stayed calm, stuck with its game plan, and played a confident dominating game. I’m sold on Texas Tech. Finally. Don’t screw me over, Texas Tech.
RED RAIDERS – 43 Cyclones – 20
Baylor (-17) at Kansas State, 2:30pm [FOX] – Baylor is 1-8 in their last 9 conference road games, and the lone win was a disturbing overtime escape against a terrible Kansas team in 2010. You’ve probably already seen that factoid thrown around all over the place this week. It’s a stupid factoid, because it has absolutely no impact on Saturday’s game. The 2013 Baylor offense is a force of nature, and it cannot be stopped until it obliterates every stupid factoid and preconceived notion, and until it melts the brains of every terrified defensive coordinator in America. When Baylor was the Big 12’s loveable doormat, I used to recite embarrassingly awful Baylor stats in a weekly segment I called “Oh, Baylor!â€â€¦ Now we can do the same thing, but in reverse, and we can call it, “HOLY SH*T, BAYLOR!†For example, the Bears had 617 yards of total offense last week against West Virginia. At halftime. HOLY SH*T, BAYLOR! The Bears finished with 864 total yards, which is only 77 yards shy of what Florida International has racked up – IN FIVE FOOTBALL GAMES. HOLY SH*T, BAYLOR! Road game, schmoad game. All Art Briles needs to do is watch the Oregon game film from last year. KSU can’t hang with this Baylor speed, and barring a complete implosion (or, perhaps, a wizard’s spell??) the Bears cover. But they won’t put up 100, so you’ve got that going for ya, Bill Snyder.
BEARS – 47 Wildcats 24
