Texas @ West Virginia: Game Breakdown and Predictions

More outstanding analysis by Lukus Alderman

This weekend Texas hits the most difficult four stretch of the season by taking on a very unpredictable West Virginia (4-5) squad in Morgantown. After taking down a very bad Kansas team in Austin, Texas tries to regain its momentum in one of the most hostile environments it has seen this year.

Last week, Texas came out slow and lethargic and held to a 14-3 halftime lead that was aided by many Kansas miscues, including a running-into-the-kicker penalty that kept a touchdown drive alive. The Longhorn defense was the main reason that this game remained uninteresting as it held Kansas out of the endzone through the first three and a half quarters and even scored a TD of it’s own.

The offense was another story as it stuck to a similar gameplan that saw against TCU with McCoy handing the ball off and throwing a handful of deep passes. The problem, however, was that Case was off his game and was only really able to connect on one long pass to Marcus Johnson. Malcolm Brown took over the role as lead back in this specific game as he rumbled for 110+ yards and 4 huge TDs.

Yes, Texas won 35-13, but they sure didn’t look good doing it. That said, many predicted a letdown and we got it, only the score didn’t really reflect it. The passing game was poor and the running game took a long time to get going against a sub-par defensive unit ranked in the bottom 90 in the nation. But the bottom line is that we got another W in the win column and are still undefeated in conference.

A quick overview of West Virginia will show that they are very good at home, and not so sharp when they play away games against decent opponents. Something else to note is that the Mountaineers have a very difficult time holding on to late leads and from about the halfway point of the season, Baylor game aside, they have done a tremendous job of stopping the run. We are definitely going to need Case McCoy to be on his game in order to win come Saturday night.

OFFENSE

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We can all throw the Swoopes talk from last week out of the door right now because I’m not sure we see him again this year unless Case gets injured. What we have right now is an offensive unit with the sole identity of a running football team who has a quarterback who CAN BE very accurate with the deep passes.

Until about halfway through the 3rd quarter of the TCU game, Case had been doing a fantastic job of securing the ball and maintaining drives. At that point Texas was up 27-7 and clearly on their way to a blowout win, but Case threw an ill-advised deep pass which was intercepted. On the very next possession, McCoy did the same exact thing. Since about that halfway point of the 3rd quarter, Case’s line is 20-32 for 196 yards and four interceptions. This slump needs to stop if Texas is going to continue its win streak.

As I mentioned before, lately West Virginia has done a great job of stopping the run on all of their opponents except for Baylor. Here are their numbers versus opponents against the run over the last half of the season:

Oklahoma State – 111 yards (2.8 ypc)

Baylor – 476 yards (7.8 ypc)

Texas Tech – 111 yards (3.6 ypc)

Kansas State – 157 yards (3.7 ypc)

TCU – 60 yards (2.1 ypc)

So, aside from the Baylor game, this WVU defense has done a solid job against the run. What has hurt them in each of the games is their pass defense. In those five games, WVU is giving up an average of 373 yards passing. That is awful! And that’s what it takes to beat them. If we want to beat WVU, we need Case to play as mistake free as he can and to make the correct reads and easy throws that will move us down the field. He can do it, but he needs to get rid of his gunslinger mentality that he’s had since we went up 27-7 on TCU in the middle of the third quarter of that game.

Stat Predictions:

McCoy: 27-39 342 yards, 2 TD 2 INT

Gray: 13 carries 75 yards, 1 rec. 4 yards

Brown: 12 carries 45 yards 1 TD

Daje J: 4 carries 17 yards, 5 rec. 77 yards

Marcus J: 5 rec. 79 yards 1 TD

Shipley: 7 rec. 92 yards

M Davis: 4 rec. 61 yards 1 TD

K Sanders: 4 rec. 21 yards

J Harris: 2 rec. 13 yards

DEFENSE:

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The Texas defense is the main reason why the Kansas game wasn’t as close as it was last year. We couldn’t do much on offense, but the defense made sure we didn’t allow Kansas to make a game out of it by both keeping Kansas out of the end zone for a majority of the game and by scoring a TD themselves. This week we play a much better offense than Kansas brought to the field.

West Virginia may not have great numbers offensively overall, but at home they have played exceptionally well scoring 30.5 points per game while going 3-1, losing only to Tech after blowing a 4th quarter lead. Their games on the road have been a different story, however, as some of the notable games include blowout losses by 31 points and 37 points to Baylor and Maryland and an overtime win at TCU. This team is a very different team at home than on the road.

Here are some players to keep an eye on from the West Virginia side of the ball:

QB – Clint Trinkett: Since taking over as QB for the OKState win, Trinkett hasn’t been fantastic, but he’s been good enough to keep most games close (aside from Baylor). He averages 243.6 yards passing and has 5 TDs to 5 INTs.

RB – Charles Sims: Sims enters the game as the WVU leading rusher with 754 yards and 5 TDs on the ground. He can also be dangerous catching the ball as he has 36 rec. for 300 yards and 2 TDs.

We won’t be seeing the same WVU offense that came to Austin and beat us last year, but we also won’t be seeing the same offense that we saw from Kansas last week. WVU has their weapons and has a coach that knows how to use them, but it’s up to Texas and Greg Robinson to keep the crowd out of the game and the Mountaineers out of the end zone.

Sacks: 4

Yards surrendered: 410

SPECIAL TEAMS:

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After a few games of breaking off some long punt returns, Daje had a come-back-to-earth type game against Kansas. Our punt return team didn’t play poorly, but we also didn’t produce much. I see that continuing this weekend as I’m not sure that WVU will risk punting to Daje.

I do think that we will see a resurgence of our field goal team this week as I’m going to guess that our Groza semifinalist will kick four field goals. It’ll be a tough environment, but the senior will get it done.

Field goals: 4/4

SUMMARY:

This game has a feel of the Iowa State matchup. We are getting ready to head into a very difficult stretch of 3 games against top 25 opponents so I can easily see us looking ahead to some of those matchups. While WVU isn’t great, they were able to beat a good OSU team at home and stuck with Tech and KState for three and a half quarters of play.

If Case McCoy can get out of his slump and find the open intermediate routes and not try to be a gunslinger, I can see this game getting put away early. But, if the offense decides to play hardheaded football and run, run, run regardless of how many are in the box, an upset could be brewing.

My best bet is that WVU comes out with a lot of emotion and starts with an early lead. Watch for a fake field goal or punt to keep a TD drive alive from the Mountaineers. Texas may even be down for the first time since Iowa State in this game.

I could easily see Major sticking with the run too long and the offense stalling on our first few drives of the game. However, I think Case snaps out of his slump. He should be able to find Shipley and rising star Marcus Johnson for some great gains. Daje could make a few plays on short routes and screens, but I think the ball will be spread out where each of the main skill position players get their share of touches.

We will be down going into the second half, but I think McCoy a third quarter comeback where we hang on by a few field goals after a late surge from WVU. It will be close.

SCORE PREDICTION:

Texas: 33 WVU: 27