Broadcast
Date: Thursday, November 26
Location: Austin, Texas
Venue: Darrell K. Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium
Game Time: 6:30 CT
Network: FOX Sports 1
What’s the Big Story?
Charlie Strong’s Longhorns dropped important games to Iowa State and West Virginia, putting the team in a position where they must beat Texas Tech and Baylor to become bowl eligible and have a chance at a winning record this season. Otherwise they’re staring a 4-8 season straight in the face.
Despite the loss, the Longhorns looked much-improved in the road game against West Virginia. The game plan was there and was working but the execution wasn’t. And when you look at history, Texas Tech has a habit of making things look easy against the Longhorns (see 2008). Now that Texas’ bowl chances hang in the balance of the outcome of the next two games, expect to see Charlie Strong throw everything in the cupboard at the Red Raiders on Turkey Day. Trick plays, every blitz in the book, and maybe even, a flea flicker. Exciting!
Texas Tech is hoping to break the traditional trend of losing to Texas by breaking the Longhorns’ hearts on national television once again. Kliff Kingsbury would like nothing more than to ruin the Longhorns’ chances for a bowl game, on Thanksgiving, in DKR.
After beating Kansas State last weekend the Red Raiders have a renewed faith in their defense. They are hoping that same defense shows up in Austin.
Keys for Longhorns to Win
The Longhorns are an entirely different team at home, scoring 39 points and giving up 26 on average. For the Longhorns to take advantage of their newest Thanksgiving Day rival, the first thing they need do is start fast. Texas Tech has one of the most explosive offenses in the country and to get the first step in what is sure to be a shootout, is critical. It’s no secret Texas has a poor record when they are scored on first (0-11), so starting the game with points on the board is a must.
The Red Raiders currently boast the 121st best defense in the FBS (Kansas sits at 101st) and in their game against Kansas State last weekend, they held the Wildcats to only 44 points! The last time Texas faced a lacking defense Jerrod Heard put up 364 yards passing and broke a few records. Expect this game to be a Cal 2.0 game (hopefully sans the Nick Rose missed field goal for Texas fans).
Priority number one for Texas playcaller Jay Norvell will be to keep Tech’s defense on the field (and Patrick Mahomes off it). The Longhorns may be able to go blow for blow with the Raiders offense given Tech’s defense, but they shouldn’t risk it. The plan of action (which I will contradict below) should be long sustained drives. This means feeding Chris Warren and Kirk Johnson, who will play in the absence of injured tailbacks D’Onta Foreman and Johnathan Gray. Despite them being secondary options in the running game, there is plenty of optimism in their abilities to get it done against Tech’s front four. Texas needs to convert on third down, which shouldn’t prove too difficult against the worst third down defense in the nation (not exaggerating, they’re worse than Texas and ranked 128/128). They’re also ranked 123rd in rushing defense. The Red Raiders are particularly vulnerable to the read option, so with Daje in the jet sweep the Longhorns can really confuse this Tech defense with the multitude of options they have for running the ball.
Despite Texas Tech’s rushing defense woes, Texas shouldn’t abandon the pass. Jerrod Heard looked much improved in the passing game against West Virginia in the first half. The offensive game plan needs to involve the pass a lot to exploit Tech’s young, porous defensive secondary. Especially after Texas lost its two best running backs the Longhorns may rely on the deep pass for yardage and scores – something Heard excels in. The Red Raiders have been very vulnerable to the play action and read option this season, so the use of a lot of play action with deep shots to Burt and Daje look probable.
The Texas defense, which struggled at the beginning of the season, has really solidified under Bedford and Strong since the TCU game. In the past five games the Longhorns have not allowed more than 235 passing yards per game, which really speaks to the of the talent of the young Longhorns secondary. Now they face the most dynamic offense they’ve seen since TCU.
How do they stop it?
The Longhorns’ main focus should be getting off the field on third down, using a spy on Mahomes to protect the Achilles heel, and limit mistakes.
The Red Raider offense is also their defense. The longer Kingsbury’s offense is on the field the less the Longhorns have a chance of winning.
A large part of making sure Tech doesn’t stay on the field and inevitably march down the field is limiting their other options for gaining yards. Taking away Mahomes’s ability to scramble for extra yards would take away a large part of Tech’s game which seems to gain positive yards on every play.
Keys for Red Raiders to Win
The biggest surprise this season has been the inconsistent play of the Texas defense even though many marked the unit down as the strength of the team in the offseason. The Longhorns have given up 29 points per game and an average of 428 yards per game. While they have been improving it has been against the likes of Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia.
Anyone who has seen the Red Raiders play this year knows they have the ability to put points on the board fast and frequently. The Longhorns rank 120th in stopping 3rd down conversions (125th at home), and allow 48% of 3rd down conversions. The Red Raiders are the best team in the nation in converting 3rd downs and average 588 total yards offense and 46.5 points per game. Pat Mahomes will look to beat the Longhorns in the air , with his feet or with both if given ample opportunity.
Despite a less than-stellar defense, the Red Raiders are facing an injured Longhorns offense that has their own challenges. They are missing their best running back in D’Onta Foreman (who has game changing talent), their best interior lineman in Patrick Vahe, and their senior leader and starting running back Johnathan Gray.
If the Red Raiders follow the formula of stopping the Texas run and forcing Heard to pass, Texas Tech will have won the battle. The magic number for the Red Raiders is holding the Texas to 184 yards rushing (in games Texas has lost they’ve averaged 184 yards rushing)
Players Who Matter – Texas Tech
Patrick Mahomes and DeAndre Washington
After being knocked out of the game last year on a big hit by Quandre Diggs, Pat Mahomes is looking for revenge. He’s a different quarterback this year, needing only 89 yards to break the 4,000 yards passing mark. He runs the offense incredibly well and will be able to take advantage of the weaknesses in the Texas defense. In addition to his passing ability, he’s good on his feet.
DeAndre Washington is very much like Iowa State’s Mike Warren, who racked up 157 yards against a Texas defense that continues to give up a lot of rushing yards. Washington is very good in the open field – an area where the Longhorns struggle in tackling.
Micah Awe and Pete Robertson
For the Texas Tech defense to win the battle they need to pressure Jerrod Heard and force him to make the same freshman mistakes he made toward the end of the West Virginia game. Currently the Red Raiders are the worst team in the Big XII in sacks. It will be up to Pete Robertson who leads the team in sacks (with just 5), and Micah Awe, who leads the team in tackles, to set the tone and force Heard into making mistakes when pressured.
Players Who Matter – Texas
Jerrod Heard and John Burt
With D’Onta Foreman out, Jerrod Heard is the most potent running threat the Longhorns have left (besides Tyrone Swoopes on short-down plays). Heard will have his fair share of explosive plays on the ground and through the air.
Every time John Burt has touched the ball this season it has materialized as an explosive play. Burt averages 20.65 yards per catch, however, he’s only averaging around 2 catches per game. Jerrod Heard needs to feed the former track-star the ball as much as possible and let him go up against the Texas Tech corners one-on-one. He will win.
Holton Hill/Davante Davis and Malik Jefferson
Much like the offense goes the way of Jerrod Heard, the defense goes the way of Malik Jefferson. And once again Jefferson will be a very busy man in his efforts to contain Patrick Mahomes. Luckily stopping the run is Jefferson’s strength, but when he’s been asked to guard the pass he has struggled at times.
The Texas cornerbacks are freshmen, just as Texas Tech’s are. Patrick Mahomes has the ability to take even the smallest slip-up and make 6 points or a big gain through the air out of it. Davante Davis and the rest of the Texas corners must play smart and error-free to keep the game manageable.
Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction
This will be a fast-paced, high flying, emotionally stressful game for both sides.
From what we’ve seen the Longhorns are able to score a lot of points vs bad defenses and this is the worst defense they’ve faced all year.
Patrick Mahomes and DeAndre Washington will cause trouble for the Longhorns, but expect Texas to curb Texas Tech’s prolific offense – much more than Texas Tech’s defense will be able to stop Jerrod Heard and the Texas offense.
Emotions are a real factor in sports. The Longhorns are an entirely different team at home and the coaches and the players are going to let it all hang out on Thanksgiving Night.
Final Score: Texas wins 45-42