Staff Predictions: No 8. Texas Longhorns vs. Houston Cougars

It has been more than two decades since the Texas Longhorns (5-1, 2-1) and Houston Cougars (3-3, 1-2) have played one another, and almost 30 years since the two played each other while in the same conference. As former Southwest Conference members the ‘Horns and Coogs played annually from 1976-1995, with the Longhorns recording a 15-7-1 record in those contests.

This year the two meet for what will be the only meeting as members of the Big 12 Conference. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen’s season is sitting square at .500 thanks to a last second Hail Mary victory over West Virginia last week, and he knows a win over Texas would help quell his growing number of critics. For the Longhorns, they are looking to get back in the win column with their season goals still in-sight following a disappointing loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago.

The Longhorns are 16-7-2 all-time against the University of Houston and own a seven-game win streak against the Cougars. They have won their last three games in Houston by a combined 77 points and haven’t lost there in 32 years.

On paper, Texas wins this game with relatively ease. But paper can always be torn and that’s what the Longhorns hope to avoid this weekend at TDECU Stadium.

Below our staff gives their thoughts and score predictions on Saturday’s game in the Bayou City.

Jameson McCausland (4-2)

The second half of the season starts Saturday afternoon in Houston. The Cougars pulled off a miraculous win over West Virginia last week, but that shouldn’t overshadow their previous losses to Texas Tech, TCU and Rice. Dana Holgorsen’s team looked improved against the Mountaineers but put some bad football on tape to start the season.

It’s hard to envision a scenario where Texas struggles to consistently move the ball. The Houston defense is not very good and the Longhorns have had their way with opponents this season outside of the redzone issues. If the Longhorns spent the bye week tightening the screws on their redzone woes, they should have a chance to put up 40 or more points.

Defensively for Texas, they will be tested by the QB run game once again after failing against Dillon Gabriel. Donovan Smith is a streaky QB and if Texas allows him to get in a rhythm, the Cougars can and will put up some points.

The path to victory for Houston is extremely narrow and involves a lot of self-inflicted wounds for Texas. Assuming the Longhorns cleaned up some things in the bye week, this should be a comfortable win.

Score Prediction: Texas 42, Houston 17

Aaron Carrara (5-1)

I think it is really cool these two teams have an opportunity to play one another one last time as members of the same conference but I don’t think Saturday ends well for Houston. The Longhorns hold the edge on all of the head-to-head matchups in my opinion, but Donovan Smith has the potential to give the Texas defense trouble. He’s got a great arm and he has wheels, and the task ahead for a talented Texas defensive unit is to disrupt him. The Cougars rank 113th out of 130 teams in total defense, which means Ewers, Brooks and the receiving corps for the ‘Horns should have a field day. Sark mentioned on Thursday that the team had a great week of practice and he thinks his team is a little “pissed off.” Apologies in advance to my son who attends UH and is a proud Coog, but Texas is out to make a statement on Saturday following a loss to Oklahoma they feel like should have been a win.

Score Prediction: Texas 52, Houston 17

Devon Messinger (4-2)

After a week off, the Longhorns return to action in Houston, against the Houston Cougars. Despite a late win in hail mary style last weekend, the Cougars are three touchdown underdogs to Texas. However, Cougars junior quarterback Donovan Smith, a Texas Tech transfer, has upset the Longhorns before during his time in Lubbock and will look to do the same on Saturday.

For Texas, the key groups to watch will be the team’s secondary and defensive front. Although both performed decently well against Oklahoma, barring the final defensive possession of the game, there definitely are areas to improve. Can the secondary slow down the Big 12 Conference’s third-leading passer in Smith, and can the defensive front bring him to the ground? If so, the Longhorns will be able to turn on cruise control with a solid bounce back victory.

Score Prediction: Texas 41, Houston 13

Marc Henry (3-2)

Texas will be looking to bounce back after their tough loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. It will be interesting to see how their defense handles Houston’s quarterback Donovan Smith, who is a dual threat. Texas will likely need to focus on containing his passing and running abilities.

Wide Receiver Matthew Golden, while a top target for the Cougars, might be limited due to injury. In that case, Joseph Manjack IV and the emerging Stephon Johnson will likely be key players in the Cougar offense.

Defensively, Texas will aim to pressure the quarterback and make Houston one-dimensional. Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense will be looking to set the tone early in their matchup against the University of Houston. Establishing a strong running game led by Jonathon Brooks and a physical offensive line will be crucial for their success. Look for explosive plays in the passing game, with Xavier Worthy and JT Sanders as key targets to create those big plays. This has been the Longhorns’ recipe for success.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Houston 17

Todd Glawson (4-2)

The second half of the season has arrived on the Longhorns’ doorstep after a gut-wrenching, error-filled loss to an arch rival that appeared more prepared and even more motivated. After two long weeks to lick their wounds and stew on a frustrating effort in Dallas, it’s time to get back in the saddle and ride east to face the Houston Cougars for the first match-up since 2002. With Texas’ remaining schedule being the weakest of the current Top 10, one could argue the championship stakes for the burnt orange haven’t been this high or realistic since the 2009-10 season. Running the table and controlling your own destiny is of utmost importance, but I’m most interested in this team’s mentality and how they choose to handle their business going forward. We can visit many sports movie moments such as Jake Taylor’s famous “there’s only one thing left to do” speech or John Kreese’s “no mercy” credo, but I think Billy Madison claiming “now you’re all in big, big trouble” before unleashing dodgeball hell on a bunch of six year-olds is the most apt comparison. Sark and Co. are the big kids in the Big XII neighborhood and there can be no doubt about that the rest of the way. Will the slow starts be a thing of the past? Have the red zone woes been fixed? Can the defense – specifically the secondary – bounce back from a rough day against OU? It all begins again on Saturday afternoon at TDECU Stadium where the Horns are a 23.5-point favorite, and I expect them to be going Mach 2 with their hair on fire.

Score Prediction: Texas 48, Houston 13

Ryan Swantkowski (5-1)

Back from the bye week and man does it feel good. It seems that the OU game is in the past now, and the objective is firmly established: win out. I think Texas will do just that, but here’s how they beat Houston on Saturday: 

• Houston QB Donovan Smith is very familiar with Texas, as he transferred this offseason from Texas Tech. He also has the most rushes on the team and relies on his legs to make plays. I think Texas learn’s from Dillon Gabriel’s performance to contain the QB better, and makes him use his arm more
• Texas, from a pure talent perspective, dominates the Cougars at basically every position. They also used their bye week to get key player’s healthy such as Ja’Tavion Sanders and Ryan Watts
• Bounce back. I think the Longhorns lay it on the Cougars as they will have a chip on their shoulder and want to make a statement to the rest of the college football world. Give me the ‘Horns big time

Score Prediction: Texas 53, Houston 13

Dylan DeRaud (5-2)

The stage is set for a lopsided contest as Texas gears up to face Houston. Following the heartbreaking loss to the Sooners, Texas is eager to bounce back, and it’s unfortunate for Houston that they are in the crosshairs of this resurgence. Texas has several different ways that they can win, and if executed as planned, they should be expected to control every facet of the matchup. Their front seven is ready to unleash a relentless assault on a shaky Houston offensive line. Expect them to consistently be getting pressure in the face of QB Donovan Smith.

Houston’s defense has shown significant vulnerabilities in both the passing game and the run game. Which opens the door for big games from Quinn Ewers and the receiving corps along with Jonathan Brooks continuing his individual success this season. For Houston to have a chance to pull off the upset, they will need to win the turnover battle and prove they can stop the Longhorn offense. I just don’t see that happening this weekend.

Score Prediction: Texas 56, Houston 10

Mitch Lovell (5-2)

Texas will take the field for the first time since losing to Oklahoma looking to get a bad taste out of their mouths. Houston had an impressive win over West Virginia last week but the Longhorns will be too entirely too much for the Cougars. Expect Ewers to throw for 350 yards and the Texas defense to show they are still a top defensive unit despite a bad day against Oklahoma.

Score Prediction: Texas 48, Houston 17