Staff Predictions: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ No. 1 Texas Longhorns

The top-ranked Texas Longhorns (4-0, 0-0 SEC) completed their nonconference slate of the 2024 schedule with a perfect 4-0 record. This week they prepare to host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3, 0-1 SEC) in their first-ever Southeastern Conference matchup.

Last week the Longhorns continued their dominance over opponents, defeating the UL-Monroe Warhawks 51-3. Mississippi State began conference play last Saturday at home in Starkville, falling to the Florida Gators 45-28. Bulldogs’ starting quarterback Blake Shapen suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the loss, leaving Jeff Lebby forced to start true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. this week against Texas.

Saturday’s matchup will be the fifth between these two programs all-time, with each owning two wins. The last meeting took place at the Cotton Bowl in 1998 with the Longhorns winning 38-11.

Both programs will likely start backup quarterbacks this week and in SEC play anything can happen. The Bulldogs will likely need to pull out their bag of tricks if they intend to pull off a road upset over the No. 1 team in the country. Does Jeff Lebby’s team have it in them to make things difficult for the Longhorns? Will Texas come out fired up and ready to show the country why they are the top-ranked team in the land?

Our staff gives their final score predictions and shares their thoughts on how the game between the Longhorns and Bulldogs plays out.

Jameson McCausland (4-0)

Whether it is Arch Manning or Quinn Ewers behind center, this matchup sets up very well for Texas. Mississippi State will be breaking in a new quarterback following the season-ending injury to Blake Shapen, and the Bulldogs have been horrific defensively.

Steve Sarkisian emphasized getting Jaydon Blue going last week, and this feels like another week where Blue could be in store for some big numbers. 

It will be interesting to see the Texas defense go against the veer and shoot for the first time since the loss to Oklahoma last season, but Mississippi State just doesn’t have the offensive talent to threaten the Longhorns for 4 quarters.

Score Prediction: Texas 45, Mississippi State 10

Aaron Carrara (4-0)

SEC play officially begins for the Longhorns this weekend in a game they are favored by more than five touchdowns. Mississippi State is likely in for a long season after losing their starting quarterback last week, which comes on the heels of consecutive home losses to Toledo and Florida.

Texas will likely start Arch Manning this week again, giving starter Quin Ewers more time to rest before the Red River Rivalry. Manning will test the Bulldog secondary with an array of deep passes, most of which he had success with last week. Jaydon Blue scored 4 touchdowns last week and passed the century mark on the ground and was hungry for more. Expect Blue to have another big game on Saturday. The Longhorn defense is stingy and will look to make life miserable for true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren.

Jeff Lebby is a really good football coach but Mississippi State simply does not have the offense or defense to make this game competitive against a Texas team that is clicking on all cylinders. Texas wins big again this week in their SEC opener.

Score Prediction: Texas 45, Mississippi State 6

Marc Henry (4-0)

As Texas welcomes Mississippi State for their first SEC game, the Longhorns enter ranked number one in the nation, riding high off a dominant 51-3 victory over Louisiana Monroe. The spotlight was on quarterback Arch Manning in his first start, where he delivered with two touchdown passes. The offense was powered by running back Jaydon Blue, who rushed for 124 yards and three touchdowns.

Texas has a simple formula for success: attack Mississippi State with a balanced offense while continuing to get Manning valuable experience as the starting quarterback. The Longhorns are expected to lean on both the ground game and Manning’s arm to keep the Bulldogs’ defense on its heels.

Mississippi State comes into the matchup with a major setback, having lost quarterback Blake Shapen to a season-ending injury against Florida. Without their starting quarterback, the Bulldogs’ offense will face a stiff challenge against Texas’ smothering defense.

Expect the Longhorns to dominate on both sides of the ball, securing their first SEC win in convincing fashion.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Mississippi State 10

Devon Messinger (4-0)

This Saturday, the Texas Longhorns will participate in their first official SEC Conference game against the Mississippi Bulldogs. Heading into week five, the story is all about momentum. Last week, the Bulldogs lost their starting quarterback Blake Shapen to injury and looked lost against the Florida Gators. Meanwhile, the Longhorns, who were also without their starting quarterback, continued to steamroll their opponents.

For Texas, the key to the game is staying clean in the turnover column. Whether Arch Manning gets another start or Quinn Ewers returns from his injury, the Longhorns will be in a great position as long as their offense takes care of the football. This applies to the Texas running backs as well, such as Jaydon Blue, who is poised to put on a show against a Bulldogs roster that has struggled to stop the run. Expect to hear Smokey the Cannon early & often to start conference play.

Score Prediction: Texas 48, Mississippi State 10

Dylan DeRaud (3-1)

After last week’s performance, Texas has shown the ability to win in different ways this season. When Manning struggled, the offense ran the rock down the teeth of the ULM defense until the passing game found a rhythm. In this week’s matchup against Mississippi State, the Longhorns will not be facing a team that’s in a positive groove. The Bulldogs are allowing 416 yards of total offense per game on defense and now have to start Freshman QB Michael Van Buren after Blake Shapen got injured against Florida. Expect another big win for Texas in their first game of SEC play.

Score Prediction: Texas 45, Mississippi State 7

Mitch Lovell (4-0)

Mississippi State is reeling from a 45-28 home loss to Florida. They will play a true freshman at quarterback in a hostile environment this weekend. It is uncertain if Quinn Ewers will suit up on Saturday, but regardless the Texas offense will be too much for the Bulldogs.

Score Prediction: Texas 52, Mississippi State 14