Throughout the summer, HornSports will countdown the college football season by projecting season-ending records among Big 12 teams. Holding the #9 spot is the northernmost team in the Big 12, the Iowa State Cyclones.
Why not higher?
The Iowa State Cyclones landed a dynamic and extremely capable coach in Matt Campbell from Toledo. Cambpell’s only 36 years old but don’t let his perceived youth fool you. He did wonders for the Toledo Rockets, who didn’t do much after Gary Pinkel left for the Missouri job in 2000. The Cyclones have the talent to compete with most teams in the Big 12 but that talent seems to fade late in games. If Iowa State doesn’t jump out to an early lead, they are usually doomed.
Why not lower?
Because Kansas.
Bright spots
A new coach can help inject confidence and enthusiasm into a program. However, it takes players on the field to get the job done. That starts on offense with Mike Warren. Mike Warren led all FBS freshmen in rushing yards with 1,335, averaging almost 6 yards per carry. With only 1 returning starter on the offensive line, expect the Cyclones to work Warren all season long.
Work left to do
Iowa State is one of those gems in the Big 12. Their fans are loyal, loud, and proud to be Cyclones. Unfortunately that doesn’t sell recruits to travel to Ames or even the state of Iowa. Getting Matt Campbell was a big surprise to me and just might give the Cyclone program the credibility it needed to recruit well beyond Iowa.
Iowa State has a good future ahead as young players mature and a new coach acclimates himself to the program. But the 2016 season still has to be played. 8 returning starters on defense should help keep Iowa State in games but they were ranked 107th in total defense last year. The defense needs to see major improvements to be successful. Mike Warren cannot run the ball the entire game, so Allen Lazard and Joel Lanning will have to prove they can take the reins consistently and make the plays necessary to win. I’m just not sold that they can.
Prediction
Iowa State has a tough schedule. The first 3 games are against Northern Iowa (who made it to the FCS quarterfinals last season), at Iowa (12-2 last year), and at TCU. Iowa State should expect to be 1-2 but they could be staring 0-3 in the face coming out of that stretch. They do play Oklahoma and Baylor at home but I doubt that will make much of a difference. They play Texas and Kansas on the road this season and then they end the season against West Virginia.
Iowa State won two Big 12 games last year. I don’t expect that this season.
Final 2016 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)
