Anticipation and expectations are both running at high levels for the 2014-15 Texas basketball season. Considering that the program was an afterthought at the beginning of last season, the hoops squad completely transformed their relevance in the 40 Acres sports hierarchy in 12 months.
After unexpected success last year, the hoops team returns a strong core and added two high school talents to that base. How those pieces fit together and whether the sum is greater than the parts are the two basic questions for this year’s team.
The pieces
Back Court – Demarcus Croaker; Javan Felix; Demarcus Holland; Isaiah Taylor; Kendal Yancy
Projecting the starting guards is not a relieble exercise. Although Isaiah Taylor is going to be the point guard, the other spot is going to be highly varied.
Courtesy of his on-ball defensive prowess, Demarcus Holland is a relatively safe choice at the beginning of the season. The Horns are going to run an offense similar to last year where they run the ball through the big men. With plenty of scoring options down low, plus Taylor’s ability to penetrate and score, it would not be surprising to see Rick Barnes opt to choose a defense-first option at the No. 2 guard spot. If Barnes chooses offense and wants more of an outside scoring threat then look for Demarcus Croaker to be the choice.
Javan Felix will probably be the sixth man in terms of minutes played. Not only will Texas use Felix to spell Taylor at point guard, but Barnes will also substitute him on the wing to inject an outside shooting presence – especially on nights where the offense needs a boost.
Kendal Yancy is the X-factor in the back court. He has the ability to bring the ball up the floor, hit outside shots, play solid defense, and create off the dribble. The problem is that Yancy, while capable of everything, is not outstanding in any area. How much Yancy has improved his overall game will be an important key to the season. If Yancy has improved enough to earn starting minutes alongside Taylor, the offensive combinations for the season go through the roof.
Like the guards, projecting starting minutes for the front court is futile. Not only are there too many unknowns with this group, they are also hopeful of a significant transition from last year.
Jonathan Holmes lost weight and reshaped his body in the offseason in an effort to move outside and be a formidable presence as a wing player (small forward). Holmes is the senior captain of the team and the rest of the squad respect the work he put in to move outside, as well as what he means to the team in the locker room. Holmes’ move to small forward is an experiment that could pay major dividends both in terms of the team’s outside shooting, and the flexibility it provides for the rotation of post players.
Cameron Ridley is going to be the starter at the 5 spot. Ridley has steadily improved both his physique and his game during his first two seasons. With another off-season of improvements, Ridley appears poised to be a force in the interior.
Connor Lammert will likely start at the No. 4 position, but the spot figures to be heavily rotated throughout each game. Prince Ibeh may find himself relegated to being a defensive specialist if he doesn’t prove capable of dependably contributing on offense early in the season.
One of the things that has fans excited for the season is the addition of Jordan Barnett and Myles Turner. Freshmen have proven capable of transitioning quickly to the college game and both Barnett and Turner are expected to contribute immediately. Barnett will factor into the rotation at No. 4 and Turner has the ability to play both down low and outside.
The strategy
The options on this year’s team are so plentiful that fans should expect lineup changes and varying personnel combinations into February. For Barnes, the key will be balancing his proclivity for defense with having enough offensive threats on the floor at any given time.
Expect Barnes to use the regular season much like Augie Garrido does – results in the first 60 days are not going to be nearly as important as the growth of the team. For Texas to make the NCAA tournament run they appear capable of, finishing as regular season conference champions is not a priority compared to finding the right rotation of players, having individual players improve throughout the season, staying healthy, and building confidence.
This team is going to be judged based on how they perform in March (and possibly April). Barnes may even borrow from Charlie Strong and talk about “the process†during January and February – anticipate growing pains throughout the season.
Key questions
Where do the perimeter jumpshots come from?
Much has been made of the Horns’ lack of effective three point shooting last season. At Media Day almost every player on the roster commented that working on their outside shot was a significant focus of the off-season.
The key isn’t just for Isaiah Taylor and the guards to make more shots – first they have to take more. The simple act of launching more jumpshots is going to change how defenses have to play Texas. Plus the Longhorns are going to be a very capable rebounding team, so missed shots should present opportunities at put-backs.
At least half the roster could improve their 3-point efficiency several points. Barnett and Turner also present interesting upgrades in perimeter scoring.
How well does Jonathan Holmes play at small forward?
Holmes will play around 25 minutes/game this season. If the bulk of those minutes come from the wing, then Barnes has incredible lineup flexibility.
As a dependable outside shooter and above average rebounder, Holmes’ biggest question at the 3 might be his ability to play man-to-man defense against what will often be the other team’s most athletic player. However, with Holmes at small forward, zone defense is going to be an option, especially if the Senior struggles against a small, quicker player.
Is the bench a blessing or a curse?
Although the aforementioned lineup flexibility is being portrayed as a positive, the fact is that Texas has more than five players that are capable of being a starter. How the team reacts to minutes being spread up and down the bench is an under-rated storyline.
Team chemistry was high last year, so expectations are that it will continue to grow. However, especially when most of the team put in a tremendous amount of work in the offseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise for a player or two to be dissatisfied with their playing time.
How those situations are handled, both in the locker room, and by Barnes, is going to determine this team’s ceiling. If the roster buys into the concept of ‘team over self’ then the rotation is a huge plus.
