Game Preview: No. 9 Vanderbilt vs No. 20 Texas

Texas showed great perseverance once again last week in their comeback against Mississippi State. Arguably, the most impressive win the Steve Sarkisian era took place in Starkville. The Longhorns’ season seemed like it was lost when they trailed by 17 with ten minutes remaining, but the offense turned it up to a new level from there on out and ultimately saved the season. Things won’t get any easier this week with a Top-10 ranked Vanderbilt team coming to town…

The Longhorns welcome the Commodores to Austin on Saturday in what will be the first home game for Texas in six weeks. To go 3-1 in four SEC games away from home is no easy task, something the Longhorns miraculously pulled off. Many counted out Texas for the rest of the season after losing to Florida and escaping hostile territories with OT wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State, respectively. The Commodores come in at 7-1, ranked 9th in the country, and have the best team they have fielded in several decades. Make no mistake, Clark Lea’s team is a legitimate playoff contender, and Saturday will be a physical test for Texas.

The Commodores are coming off of back-to-back Top-15 wins against LSU and Missouri, both at home. Their lone loss on the season was against Alabama on the road, but without multiple redzone turnovers, they may have beaten Alabama for the second-straight year. Vanderbilt is led by quarterback Diego Pavia and he represents what Vanderbilt football is at the moment. The former state champion high school wrestler is now a gritty quarterback with dual threat capabilities that brings physicality to opposing defenses.

Can Texas Keep Diego Pavia in the Pocket?

Pavia becomes a problem when he moves outside the pocket. That can mean making the decision to scramble for yards but also extending the play and finding one of his receivers downfield. Making Pavia play from within the pocket is pivotal for the Texas defense. That starts with LB/EDGE Colin Simmons who is the best pass rusher Texas has. It is critical that Simmons and others such as Ethan Burke and Anthony Hill not lose the containment of Pavia. If given time and space, Pavia will make them pay, likely on crucial third downs to extend drives.

Pavia’s favorite target is tight end Eli Stowers, who is arguably the top tight end in the country. The former Texas A&M quarterback has made a great connection with Pavia over the last two seasons. It is equally as important that Texas does not let Stowers have a big game. Regardless if Michael Taaffe returns or not, it will be a tall task for the Texas defense to contain Stowers. If Stowers has a good game, it will open up the Vanderbilt rushing attack as Texas will need to play a lighter box. That will also open up play action which Vanderbilt loves to run as they try to control the clock and limit opponents’ possessions.

Texas Must Establish the Run

Regardless if Arch Manning is able to play or if Matthew Caldwell makes the start at quarterback for the Longhorns, running the ball is a must for Texas. Manning suffered a concussion against Mississippi State in overtime, leaving his status up in the air for the matchup with Vanderbilt. If he cannot play, that leaves backup Matthew Caldwell as the starter. All Caldwell did in overtime after Manning left due to injury was throw a perfect ball to Emmett Mosley in the corner of the endzone for a touchdown. Caldwell has done extremely well in his limited opportunities this season, but neither quarterback can win this game by themselves.

The offense has had way too many three and outs, and if that happens Saturday it will be a long day for Texas. Vanderbilt wants to win the time of possession and limit the opportunities for the Longhorns. The way for Texas to succeed on offense is to win on first and second downs. That starts with staying out of third and long situations and it starts with running the football. Last week was the first time since the Ohio State game where both Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter both played. The run game struggled once again, but hopefully less of a snap limit for Baxter this week will help the rushing attack. Baxter is the best between-the-tackles runner Texas has, and he needs ten or more carries against Vanderbilt. Should Texas be able to run the ball and stay out of third and long, the Longhorns should be able to score enough against the Commodores.