Texas is set to host Texas A&M in Austin on Friday evening for the latest installment of the Lone Star Showdown. The dynamics have shifted significantly compared to last year. Texas is in urgent need of a victory to sustain their slim chances of making the playoffs, while Texas A&M can secure a spot in the SEC Championship with a win, as well as guarantee a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff (CFP). The Aggies would relish the opportunity to eliminate Texas’ playoff aspirations right on their home turf.
Despite several teams that Texas A&M has faced recently having dismissed their coaches or benefiting from favorable scheduling within the SEC, they remain undefeated at 11-0. This iteration of Texas A&M is not reminiscent of previous years where they faltered by late October and concluded with an 8-4 record. Instead, this team represents one of their strongest performances in many years, showing significant improvement from last season. Notably, it has been since 1998 that Texas A&M visited Austin ranked among the top ten teams; during that memorable game, unranked Texas pulled off an upset against #6 ranked Texas A&M with a score of 26-24—marking the occasion when Ricky Williams surpassed the NCAA all-time rushing yards record. For Texas to achieve an upset this time around, they will need to deliver their most comprehensive performance of the season, requiring excellence across all three phases for four quarters.
The Texas Secondary Must Eliminate the Coverage Busts
The Texas secondary was considered a strong point in 2024; however, after the departures of Andrew Mukuba and Jahdae Barron to the NFL, it has become a source of disappointment this season. The loss of these two starters may have led to inflated expectations, as the once formidable secondary has transformed into a significant liability. Since the SEC opener against Florida, there have been numerous coverage breakdowns each week. Initially, some attributed these issues to the absence of all-SEC caliber cornerback Malik Muhammad during the Florida game and Michael Taaffe’s unavailability for the Mississippi State match. Despite Taaffe’s return and a fully healthy secondary facing Georgia and Arkansas, no improvement was evident.
In the game against Georgia, three coverage breakdowns resulted in touchdowns for the opposing team—an unacceptable performance that can lead to defeat against quality opponents. The situation did not improve significantly in last week’s confrontation with Arkansas either. Texas A&M presents a passing offense that Texas has not encountered since at least their matchup with Mississippi State this season. Although Ohio State boasts an impressive passing game, they adopted a conservative approach during Julian Sayin’s first start. The Aggies’ aerial attack is spearheaded by quarterback Marcel Reed and wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. Concepcion enters this matchup with over 800 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, along with two punt returns for scores. Craver is close behind with nearly 800 receiving yards himself, both averaging over 15 yards per reception; thus, Texas must avoid missing tackles on these players. Quarterback Marcel Reed is also in contention for Heisman consideration, having amassed 31 total touchdowns and exceeding 3,000 total yards this season.
Arch Manning is the Biggest Difference Maker On Either Side
Texas quarterback Arch Manning is the most significant factor in this matchup. Currently, he is performing at an exceptionally high level, capable of leading his team to victory almost single-handedly. This is advantageous for Texas, as Arch’s precise play is crucial for overcoming a formidable opponent like Texas A&M. The Aggies undoubtedly possess a superior offensive line and rushing attack, along with a stronger secondary and comparable pass rush. However, that does not imply that the A&M defense is invulnerable.
Texas A&M has not faced the most challenging schedule in the SEC yet has still been involved in several high-scoring games. They secured a 45-42 win against Arkansas and managed to rally from a 30-3 deficit against South Carolina to win 31-30. Texas supporters are aware of how vulnerable Arkansas can be after their recent encounter with them, and South Carolina is currently struggling significantly. Ultimately, the A&M secondary can be exploited, particularly given Arch’s performance since the latter part of the game in Starkville. In his last three outings against Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, Arch has amassed nearly 1,000 passing yards with eight touchdowns and only one interception. These statistics are remarkable, especially considering that Texas has had minimal success in their running game and an underperforming offensive line. Arch is playing quarterback at a level that Texas A&M has not encountered this season. If he maintains this standard of play, he will provide Texas with at least a solid opportunity against Texas A&M. The revival of this rivalry is exciting not only for fans of both teams but also for college football as a whole. It promises to be an unforgettable contest in Austin on Friday night; viewers should prepare to see how it unfolds.
