Proof you shouldn't get too excited about recruiting classes until a few years down the line

[utisdabomb12]

2012 Texas A&M class:
Thomas Jefferson
Matt Davis
Jordan Richmond
Kenneth Marshall
Michael Richardson 
Polo Manukainiu (RIP)
Tramain Jacobs
Derel Walker 

2013 Texas A&M Class: 
Isaiah Golden
Sebastian Larue
Kameron Miles
Darian Claiborne
Jordan Points 
Kohl Stewart
Jaquay Williams
 

When you use the class calculator on 247 and plug in what was lost by both teams. 

2012 Texas: 288.3   2012 Texas A&M: 183.47
2013 Texas: 234.5   2013 Texas A&M: 247.74   Texas has 15 commits remaining and A&M 33 commits remaining. So that little disparity in ranking shows you how many top end players A&M has lost, when there's nearly a 20 commit difference. 

Melting down over recruiting is nonsensical until you see how recruiting classes turn out. On paper A&M's recruiting classes look decent in 2012 and 2013, but they aren't great when you look at what players were lost. Until you see how a class turns out on the field it makes zero sense to make a judgement on a particular recruiting class. 

 

[bcherry168]

All of this recruit ranking business is good for entertainment and discussion, but the proof is in performance when those kids grow up. All of the kids vary in development as particular ages. Somebody make be hot as a jjunior in high school and get totally passed by another kid that just developed a bit later at age 20.

A lot of the rating services completely ignore a lot of important things about recruits....like attitude, character and scholastics. A true 5 star kid that can't make grades or stay out of jail or isn't coachable shouldn't count.

And how do you rate a 2 or 3 star kid that develops later and ends up being a 5 star as a college junior?

People need to wait and judge recruiting until the kids are in their junior seasons in college. That is when it really counts.

But we will still hang on to the discussions about these high school kids because there is little else to do in the offseason. LOL

 

[utisdabomb12]

All of this recruit ranking business is good for entertainment and discussion, but the proof is in performance when those kids grow up. All of the kids vary in development as particular ages. Somebody make be hot as a jjunior in high school and get totally passed by another kid that just developed a bit later at age 20.

A lot of the rating services completely ignore a lot of important things about recruits....like attitude, character and scholastics. A true 5 star kid that can't make grades or stay out of jail or isn't coachable shouldn't count.

And how do you rate a 2 or 3 star kid that develops later and ends up being a 5 star as a college junior?

People need to wait and judge recruiting until the kids are in their junior seasons in college. That is when it really counts.

But we will still hang on to the discussions about these high school kids because there is little else to do in the offseason. LOL

Yep. The biggest problem is melting down over let's say a top 15 class. There's not a big disparity between a class ranked number 15 and 5, when the number 5 team sees a bunch of attrition. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

Matter of fact looking at attrition throughout the Big 12, Texas has had the best recruiting classes in the Big 12 all the way through 2013 (using 247's class calculator and accounting for attrition). Good chance Texas ends up having the top class in 2014 too in the Big 12 because there are several top end commits at OU that probably won't qualify. The narrative that the "cupboard is bare" couldn't be more wrong. 

 

[Lord Vader]

Thought Id find information about our awesome 2009 Class......

 

[utisdabomb12]

Thought Id find information about our awesome 2009 Class......

Another good example. My main criticism with Mack is he often took high ranked players without actually evaluating them.

Gilbert-Bust

Davis-Bust

Allen-Bust

Timmons-Bust

Kelley-Bust

Howell-Bust

Ashcraft-Bust

Barnett-Bust

Porter-Bust

Mathews-Bust

14 players in the top 300 that year and only like 3 or 4 of them turned out. There's a reason you have to evaluate talent.  

 

[Randolph Duke]

If Coach Strong should be indifferent to which recruits he gets, why would he spend time recruiting any prospect who is being heavily recruited by other programs? If a given recruit is getting heavily recruited by other programs and is not a heavy UT lean, why would it not be better to pass on that recruit for a lesser rated prospect that is not going to require such a high degree of resources?

Again, my frustration is not that the recruits Coach Strong is evaluating as the ones he needs to run his system are the wrong ones and he should be instead chasing recruits with more stars. My frustration is he is getting so many rejections from players he has identified as the ones he needs to run his system, regardless of whether they are rated five star or no star.

If he was truly indifferent to whether got his first choice or fourth choice for a given position, it would make more sense to take the one being sought out by the fewer number of other programs, so recruiting would take less time and energy and he had more of both to devote to other aspects of the program.

If he believed the expenditure of the additional resources actually were worth it, wouldn't the reason be because it really does matter what recruits he got and believed he would be at a disadvantage if he didn't sign a given prospect?

The issue here isn't how a rating service rated the individual, the issue is the ones he wants dont want to play for him. Winning may well change that, but if so, one would have to believe the current set of prospects dont believe he can win and dont want to give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm just stunned that defensive recruits aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt and instead are signing with aggy. That just makes no sense. And the argument they are all being paid by aggy is discounted by my lack of belief a 17 or 18 year old can keep his mouth shut about things like major NCAA violations.

 

[utisdabomb12]

If Coach Strong should be indifferent to which recruits he gets, why would he spend time recruiting any prospect who is being heavily recruited by other programs? If a given recruit is getting heavily recruited by other programs and is not a heavy UT lean, why would it not be better to pass on that recruit for a lesser rated prospect that is not going to require such a high degree of resources?

Again, my frustration is not that the recruits Coach Strong is evaluating as the ones he needs to run his system are the wrong ones and he should be instead chasing recruits with more stars. My frustration is he is getting so many rejections from players he has identified as the ones he needs to run his system, regardless of whether they are rated five star or no star.

If he was truly indifferent to whether got his first choice or fourth choice for a given position, it would make more sense to take the one being sought out by the fewer number of other programs, so recruiting would take less time and energy and he had more of both to devote to other aspects of the program.

If he believed the expenditure of the additional resources actually were worth it, wouldn't the reason be because it really does matter what recruits he got and believed he would be at a disadvantage if he didn't sign a given prospect?

The issue here isn't how a rating service rated the individual, the issue is the ones he wants dont want to play for him. Winning may well change that, but if so, one would have to believe the current set of prospects dont believe he can win and dont want to give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm just stunned that defensive recruits aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt and instead are signing with aggy. That just makes no sense. And the argument they are all being paid by aggy is discounted by my lack of belief a 17 or 18 year old can keep his mouth shut about things like major NCAA violations.

1-"My frustration is he is getting so many rejections from players he has identified as the ones he needs to run his system, regardless of whether they are rated five star or no star." Again, how do you know this? Just because there's an offer doesn't mean a coach is going all in on a player. For instance, WR. Texas offered Siverand but they have certainly put more effort in Burt and Newsome as the primary targets. 

2-"The issue here isn't how a rating service rated the individual, the issue is the ones he wants dont want to play for him." Again, not sure how you know this. So what, a few of his offers went somewhere else. Guess what, some of his offers are going to end up at Texas. Not sure why you think the two are mutually exclusive. Just because a few players are ending up somewhere else, doesn't mean Strong isn't getting players he doesn't want. 

3- "I'm just stunned that defensive recruits aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt and instead are signing with aggy." Give it time. When A&M fields a defense like they did last year you will see decommits. It's June, 17 and 18 year old kids buy into helicopters and DJs because there's no product on the field. When South Carolina runs the ball down A&M's throat, those things start to look less appealing. 

 

[Topstarr]

Just bring me 27 recruits that will be developed onto 5* after they get here on the 40       HOOK'EM

 

[streettopeschel]

Entrusting rivals to judge your recruiting class is like entrusting Todd mcshay to judge your draft class. Some hits some misses.

 

[texasdobbs]

If Coach Strong should be indifferent to which recruits he gets, why would he spend time recruiting any prospect who is being heavily recruited by other programs? If a given recruit is getting heavily recruited by other programs and is not a heavy UT lean, why would it not be better to pass on that recruit for a lesser rated prospect that is not going to require such a high degree of resources?

Again, my frustration is not that the recruits Coach Strong is evaluating as the ones he needs to run his system are the wrong ones and he should be instead chasing recruits with more stars. My frustration is he is getting so many rejections from players he has identified as the ones he needs to run his system, regardless of whether they are rated five star or no star.

If he was truly indifferent to whether got his first choice or fourth choice for a given position, it would make more sense to take the one being sought out by the fewer number of other programs, so recruiting would take less time and energy and he had more of both to devote to other aspects of the program.

If he believed the expenditure of the additional resources actually were worth it, wouldn't the reason be because it really does matter what recruits he got and believed he would be at a disadvantage if he didn't sign a given prospect?

The issue here isn't how a rating service rated the individual, the issue is the ones he wants dont want to play for him. Winning may well change that, but if so, one would have to believe the current set of prospects dont believe he can win and dont want to give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm just stunned that defensive recruits aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt and instead are signing with aggy. That just makes no sense. And the argument they are all being paid by aggy is discounted by my lack of belief a 17 or 18 year old can keep his mouth shut about things like major NCAA violations.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. ...

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

I'm just stunned that defensive recruits aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt and instead are signing with aggy. That just makes no sense. And the argument they are all being paid by aggy is discounted by my lack of belief a 17 or 18 year old can keep his mouth shut about things like major NCAA violations. 

Agree that it's puzzling.

In my mind aggie only has three things to sell for a defensive recruit.

1. Early playing time
2. SEC (yeah, I know it's getting tiresome)
3. Online classes

Other than that, I've got nothing.  Unless they're aspiring veterinarians or plan to major in animal husbandry.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Again, how do you know this? Just because there's an offer doesn't mean a coach is going all in on a player. For instance, WR. Texas offered Siverand but they have certainly put more effort in Burt and Newsome as the primary targets. 

In RD's defense, why offer at all if the kid isn't a fit for Strong's system?  True, we don't know how CFS has ranked and prioritized the UT prospects.  But, they've gotta be good fits or why bother?

 

[streettopeschel]

No one has 'signed' with aggy yet.

 

[Lord Vader]

I did a story on one of those classes way back before this place got better staff. I think it was on the 08 class. Not much better. 

 

[primal defense]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. ...

 

[primal defense]

Agree that it's puzzling.

In my mind aggie only has three things to sell for a defensive recruit.

1. Early playing time
2. SEC (yeah, I know it's getting tiresome)
3. Online classes

Other than that, I've got nothing.  Unless they're aspiring veterinarians or plan to major in animal husbandry.

They also get this wonderful T shirt.