How good are the Aggies?

[Coach840]

Young talent on D, but unproven Qb..... 5 losses at least.....I hope

 

[doc longhorn]

Ags will struggle to win 7 this year with a true freshman QB likely starting, a lack of QB depth, a defense without any leaders expecting to rely once again on an influx of freshman talent, and a salty conference schedule. If we can see development and progression across the board then I expect a big jump as the season goes on and to enter the 2015 season in serious discussions of being in the mix for a conference title.I have my doubts about the defense, not in terms of talent, but in coaching, that job by Snyder last year was atrocious and I saw next to no improvement in technique and play recognition in our freshman from Rice to Duke, especially in our LBs (Hagen was a terrible hire).

  Well, let's take a look at their schedule and see if there is any way possible to be objective (that will be a stretch for me. _:

hursday, Aug. 28 at *South Carolina, Columbia, S.C. - I think we can count this one as a loss - playing at SC with all those inexperienced players.

Saturday, Sept. 6 vs. Lamar, Kyle Field - I cannot believe they scheduled this laugher - a win of course.

Saturday, Sept. 13 vs. Rice, Kyle Field - they destroy Rice for another win

Saturday, Sept. 20 at SMU, Dallas, Texas - A win, in a breeze

Saturday, Sept. 27 vs. *Arkansas, Arlington, Texas - I think this will be a win as well

Saturday, Oct. 4 at *Mississippi State, Starkville, Miss. - another win for the ags

Saturday, Oct. 11 vs. *Ole Miss, Kyle Field - This will be close, but the kids will be more mature - another win for the ags.

Saturday, Oct. 18 at *Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Ala. - they will get their butts handed to them - a loss

Saturday, Oct. 25 OPEN

Saturday, Nov. 1 vs. Louisiana-Monroe, Kyle Field - LOL!  Another laugher - a win for their 3rd team players

Saturday, Nov. 8 at *Auburn, Auburn, Ala.- Count this one in the loss column

Saturday, Nov. 15 vs. *Missouri Kyle Field - They are hard to beat at Kyle field - they win this one

Saturday, Nov. 22 OPEN

Thursday, Nov. 27 vs. *LSU, Kyle Field - another Kyle field win and an upset

So, by my predictions, this means they will have a 9-3 record.  An acceptable record in the eyes of Longhorn fans, but in the eyes of aggys, this will be glorious.  They will be predicting a national championship for 2015 and, if they played the Longhorns, would beat us 77 - 0.  That's how they roll.

 

[java]

My two questions:

How many defensive coordinators has Sumlin had to date?

Are the natives getting tired of watching bad defenses?

 

[Agmaniacmike]

As of now, 1 at A&M. Our D in 2012 was actually pretty solid and wasn't the cause for either of the losses that season, but the lack of leadership and poor judgment in adapting the defense from Snyder led to a massive breakdown in 2013. If Snyder doesn't produce a top 50-75 defense at minimum this year then he'll be packing his bags, so he needs to adjust or get moving along. I see 6 losses or toss-ups  on the schedule (practically the whole conference schedule) and just feel like starting a true freshman QB makes those toss-ups much more likely to fall as losses. To be honest, I feel like 10 wins is not out of the question but many things would have to fall our way, and 6-6 would be the floor.Ole Miss without Johnny scares the hell out of me given he came through in both of those games when things felt out of reach. Biggest positive of this season is that this seems to be the year of breaking in new QBs in the SEC, so we aren't alone in that regard, however, we are alone in having an atrocious defense ranked in the 100s I suspect. 

 

[monarch]

arrested T mechanical

 

[doc longhorn]

As of now, 1 at A&M. Our D in 2012 was actually pretty solid and wasn't the cause for either of the losses that season, but the lack of leadership and poor judgment in adapting the defense from Snyder led to a massive breakdown in 2013. If Snyder doesn't produce a top 50-75 defense at minimum this year then he'll be packing his bags, so he needs to adjust or get moving along. I see 6 losses or toss-ups  on the schedule (practically the whole conference schedule) and just feel like starting a true freshman QB makes those toss-ups much more likely to fall as losses. To be honest, I feel like 10 wins is not out of the question but many things would have to fall our way, and 6-6 would be the floor.Ole Miss without Johnny scares the hell out of me given he came through in both of those games when things felt out of reach. Biggest positive of this season is that this seems to be the year of breaking in new QBs in the SEC, so we aren't alone in that regard, however, we are alone in having an atrocious defense ranked in the 100s I suspect. 

It is etched in granite - you cannot win with a true freshman QB.  Not in this day and age.  This is the best that aggie has - a true frosh?

 

[utisdabomb12]

I actually enjoy these discussions. Predicting results has always been one of my favorite parts of sports. I think it would actually be worthwhile for a thread to be started on every team we play next year, so we can all kind of discuss where the competition stands. I picked A&M to finish 8-4 last year, and think they will finish 6-6 or 7-5 this year. 

1- A&M lost way too much production on offense. They lost a Heisman winning QB in Manziel. They lost their best receiver in Evans. They lost their best RB statistically in Malena (was also a leader of that team). They lost their second best receiver statistically in Walker. They lost their fourth best receiver statistically  in Labhart (probably their best WR down the stretch though). They lost their best offensive lineman in Matthews. They will be extremely young at the skilled positions, and nobody can replace that type of production. Throw in the fact that they have a new offensive coordinator that has only called one game in his life. 

2-Their defense is atrocious. They aren't losing much on defense but they are losing some contributing pieces in Askew, Ennis, Jenkins, and Hurd. All 4 started at certain points last year in the season from what I recall. Reasons I believe the defense will struggle again next year. 

A) They have a Manny Diaz as their defensive coordinator. They also have average to below average coaches at the DB and LB position. 

B ) They are still very young at all three levels of defense. 

C) They literally don't have a safety and really don't have a LB other then Claiborne. 

D) Their secondary is bad, and I mean really bad. No clue why Aggies think Everett and Raven are good secondary players. When Honeycutt is getting time in the secondary that tells you how bad A&M's secondary is. I'm not over exaggerating when I say Honeycutt is probably the worst secondary player I've seen in my lifetime. 

3-The schedule. They have 4 cupcakes on their schedule in non-conference, but they could easily drop all their SEC games. @South Carolina, @Miss. State, @Auburn, and @ Alabama will not be fun. They also have to face Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri at home. All of which could end up being losses. They also have to play Arkansas in Dallas. Aggies will tell you how much they struggle with Arkansas in Dallas. The lower tier teams will be tough for A&M next year because teams like Ole Miss, Miss. State and Arkansas are returning a bunch of starters. If they lose a non-conference game they may struggle to make a bowl game. I think A&M will beat Rice and SMU, but wouldn't be surprised if they dropped one of those games. 

4-Suspensions/Dismissals. Just look at the number of starters that may miss time. Claiborne, Matthews, Pope, Stansbury, Golden, Hill, Miles, RSJ, and so on. Defensive lineman Ivan Robinson also suffered a career ending injury it looks like. A&M better hope to god that Golden is getting his act together and that the Stansbury police report is false, because not having those two players would absolutely cripple their defensive line. Golden and Stansbury were arguably their best defensive lineman at the end of the season. 

5-Pressure. Some might think they don't have pressure because of low expectations. I disagree. Sumlin is in his third year, just got a hefty raise, and his team regressed last year. The pressure is on Sumlin. Not to mention that A&M now has the pressure of trying to prove they weren't a one hit wonder with Manziel. If A&M gets blown out by South Carolina in that opening game, there's going to be some pressure from that fanbase. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

Thursday, Aug. 28 at *South Carolina, Columbia, S.C.

80 percent sure South Carolina wins that game.  South Carolina has the longest home winning streak from what I remember. South Carolina also is built to beat A&M. Have almost their entire offensive line returning and maybe the best RB in the country in Davis. Throw in an experienced QB. This game will be similar to LSU from last year. South Carolina will pound the ball down A&M's throat and they won't have an answer. 

Saturday, Sept. 6 vs. Lamar, Kyle Field - I cannot believe they scheduled this laugher - a win of course.

100 percent A&M will win this game. No comment. 

Saturday, Sept. 13 vs. Rice, Kyle Field 

80 percent A&M wins this game. Rice has one of the most underrated coaches in college football. They hung in there with A&M last year. If you can run the ball and burn clock, you always have a chance to win a game. Their style of play is conducive to upsets, so I give Rice a chance. 

Saturday, Sept. 20 at SMU, Dallas, Texas - 

75 percent A&M wins this game. A&M will be on the road and the game is like a Super Bowl for SMU. June Jones offenses can put up points too. If SMU is hot offensively, they have a chance to outscore A&M at home. 

Saturday, Sept. 27 vs. *Arkansas, Arlington, Texas 

50/50. Arkansas is literally returning almost everyone. A&M really struggles with Arkansas in Dallas. Bielema ball is conducive to beating A&M (I.e. pounding the rock and keeping possession). Hell, Arkansas almost beat A&M last year. 

Saturday, Oct. 4 at *Mississippi State, Starkville, Miss.

70 percent Mississippi State wins this game. Texas A&M has to play on the road. Dak is the real deal at QB. Mississippi State is returning a lot of key pieces. Running QB's like Dak give A&M all types of problems. 

Saturday, Oct. 11 vs. *Ole Miss, Kyle Field - 

70 percent Ole Miss wins this game. Ole Miss is going to be good next year. Returning almost everyone. Have probably the most experienced QB in the SEC. Have weapons all over the field. Ole Miss should have won the last two matchups, if their coach wouldn't have made some horrible calls down the stretch. 

Saturday, Oct. 18 at *Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Ala.

85 percent Alabama wins this game. Alabama wants revenge in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has 3 NFL RBs on their roster. Alabama will pound the ball down A&M's throat. Saban>Sumlin. Alabama will out depth A&M on the offensive and defensive line. Will be similar to last year, A&M will eventually wear down. Coker will be a damn good QB. People forget that Coker almost beat out Winston at Florida State. 

Saturday, Nov. 1 vs. Louisiana-Monroe, Kyle Field -

100 percent A&M wins. No comment. 

Saturday, Nov. 8 at *Auburn, Auburn, Ala.- 

90 percent Auburn wins. A&M has to play on the road. Auburn wants revenge after getting blown out the last time at home. Auburn has a legit QB. They have a JUCO receiver coming in named Dhaquille Williams that will end up being one of the top receivers in the country (special talent). Gus ball will give A&M's soft defensive line all types of fits. 

Saturday, Nov. 15 vs. *Missouri Kyle Field - 

60 percent Missouri wins this game. Missouri develops offensive and defensive line talent. They always win the trenches, and that's how you beat A&M. Matty Mauk was the better QB last year, now he gets the reigns. Even with losing DGB, Missouri still has a lot of depth at receiver. 

Thursday, Nov. 27 vs. *LSU, Kyle Field -

65 percent LSU wins this game. LSU has the secondary to contain A&M's spread offense. LSU will pound the ball down A&M's throat like they did last year. Have plenty of talent still left on the offensive line. 

It's not really the strength of schedule that would scare me if I were an Aggie. It's the fact that a lot of these teams matchup really well with A&M. 

 

[Agmaniacmike]

For me, the defense all boils down to if we can get pressure, the staple of Snyder's defense. He uses robber zone concepts to force turnovers on D, which led to a couple of game-breaking plays last year, but these don't work if there is no pressure being applied. QBs with solid OLs were hardly touched all last year (did McCarron have a defender within 5 yards of him after Bama's first series?). We really need newcomers at DE like Cunningham and Garrett along with returning end Hall to provide pressure off the edge and this will require us to break away from Snyder's cherished 3-4 front and run more 4-2-5 and 4-3 as the size in the middle just doesn't allow a guy like Hall to be locked up one on one on a tackle. Unfortunately, I don't see a major pass rushing threat at LB other than a promising sophomore who got mop up duty (Shaan Washington). I also forget my favorite interior lineman, Jay Arnold can kill it if he would just get more snaps, he got 2 sacks against Mizzou and proved beneficial on 3rd/4th and short packages. I think there are some pieces to work with, but they are young and relatively unproven. I'm just happy to have the brunt of the schedule at the end of the season (other than SCAR) because I feel like this team should grow as the season progresses. One last tidbit on the defense, if the corners actually are allowed to press and not give a ten yard cushion then I expect the defense to be better (as should all defenses, bend but don't break doesn't work). On offense, if we can balance out the run/pass mix then I think we should still be very productive and can take some pressure off of the defense, we have 4 solid RBs it would be wise to use them and not rely on an 18 year old to save the day.

Things I disagree with:

DB coach being below average: not enough evidence up to this point

Everett and Raven: they are serviceable secondary players who haven't been given a consistent position and aren't being used to their strengths (press coverage)

`

 

[utisdabomb12]

For me, the defense all boils down to if we can get pressure, the staple of Snyder's defense. He uses robber zone concepts to force turnovers on D, which led to a couple of game-breaking plays last year, but these don't work if there is no pressure being applied. QBs with solid OLs were hardly touched all last year (did McCarron have a defender within 5 yards of him after Bama's first series?). We really need newcomers at DE like Cunningham and Garrett along with returning end Hall to provide pressure off the edge and this will require us to break away from Snyder's cherished 3-4 front and run more 4-2-5 and 4-3 as the size in the middle just doesn't allow a guy like Hall to be locked up one on one on a tackle. Unfortunately, I don't see a major pass rushing threat at LB other than a promising sophomore who got mop up duty (Shaan Washington). I also forget my favorite interior lineman, Jay Arnold can kill it if he would just get more snaps, he got 2 sacks against Mizzou and proved beneficial on 3rd/4th and short packages. I think there are some pieces to work with, but they are young and relatively unproven. I'm just happy to have the brunt of the schedule at the end of the season (other than SCAR) because I feel like this team should grow as the season progresses. One last tidbit on the defense, if the corners actually are allowed to press and not give a ten yard cushion then I expect the defense to be better (as should all defenses, bend but don't break doesn't work). On offense, if we can balance out the run/pass mix then I think we should still be very productive and can take some pressure off of the defense, we have 4 solid RBs it would be wise to use them and not rely on an 18 year old to save the day.

Things I disagree with:

DB coach being below average: not enough evidence up to this point

Everett and Raven: they are serviceable secondary players who haven't been given a consistent position and aren't being used to their strengths (press coverage)

`

1-I actually said average to below average. IMO Terry Joseph is an average secondary coach. Nebraska fans were actually happy when he took the job at A&M. He didn't do anything spectacular at Nebraska or Tennessee. Matter of fact Nebraska's secondary was better before Joseph got there. There were much better secondary coaches available in the off-season. 

2-For every big play Everett and Raven make, they will make one boneheaded play. They blow entirely too many assignments. The Duke game was a prime example. Press coverage will not work against the likes of Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Their receivers will straight up abuse Everett and Raven, and simply out athlete them. You also can't play press coverage when you have atrocious safeties that are always out of position. You are correct that pressure will help the secondary. However, a secondary consisting of Everett, Raven, Matthews and Honeycutt is going to have some serious problems. I mean serious problems. 

3-If Golden and Stansbury aren't available next year, that defensive line will be in the same predicament they were in last year. Relying on players that have almost no experience and are young. Even with Golden and Stansbury the line is thin and questionable. If you are relying on true Freshman on the defensive line, there's going to be problems. 

I think the offense will be good next year, just not as good as the past two years. My problem is with the defense. On all three levels, I see major problems. Matter of fact I bet Snyder is fired mid-season next year.