Football Breakdown

[utisdabomb12]

North Texas: 

*Lost their starting QB. Their new QB is likely to be Dajon Williams (red shirt FR) or Andrew McNulty (JR). Both are inexperienced. Both threw only 6 passes a piece last year. 
*Lost their starting RB. They have Jimmerson and Pegram returning at RB. Losing Byrd will hurt though, had 1075 yards rushing last year. 
*Lost their top receiver in Chancellor, their number 2 receiver in Smith, and their number 4 receiver in Miller (TE). They have Harrison and Kidsy returning at receiver. Not much production returning at all at WR. Harris had 553 yards receiving and Kidsy had a 150 yards receiving last year. 
*They are returning most of their OL. They are losing their starting RT Anyiam. 

Offensively it looks like North Texas is returning a lot on the o-line, but they are losing virtually all their starters at the skilled positions. 


*Lost both their starting DEs in Bellazin and Mccoy. 
*Lost both their starting DTs in Abbe and Boutwell. 
*Lost starting OLB in Wright. 
*Lost starting ILB in Orr. 
*Lost starting FS Trice. 

Defensively it looks like North Texas is returning a lot in the secondary, but losing virtually all their starters on the defensive line and at LB. 

I can see why North Texas was a good team last year. They had a lot of senior production. There's no reason Texas should lose this game at home. North Texas is rebuilding. 

 

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BYU: 

*Returning their starting QB and almost all of their RB production. 
*Lost three of their top four receivers in Ridley, Hoffman and Falsev. They have Apo and Mathews returning, but not a lot of production. Combined Apo and Mathews only had about 500 yards receiving last year. 
*Returning their entire offensive line. 

Offensively looks like BYU is returning about everyone except at WR. They are losing almost all of their WR production, but should have a pretty good QB and RB core.


*Returning 2 out of 3 starting defensive lineman. Manumaeluma their starting NT is gone. 
*Lost 3 out of 4 of their starting LBs in Van Noy, Unga and Hadley. Also, lost some backups at the position in Jorgensen and Beck. 
*Lost their starting safety in Sorensen. 

Defensively looks like BYU is returning a good bit in the secondary and on the D-line, but boy are they losing a lot of production at LB. 

This is a game Texas should win if Texas DL controls the game. BYU is going to be somewhat one dimensional next year with a young offensive line and a completely different receiving core. Also, BYU is going to have some growing pains on defense with 5 key contributors gone at LB. LB play is critical in a 3-4 defense. I like Texas chances to win this game too, as BYU is a completely different team away from Provo. 

 

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UCLA:

*Returning their starting QB and essentially their entire RB core. 
*Lost their top receiver in Evans, but are returning the rest of their receivers. 
*Lost their starting OG in Sua-Filo, but are returning everyone else on the offensive line. 

Offensively UCLA is returning a lot. They should be very good on the offensive side of the ball. 


*Lost 2 out of 3 of their starting DL. Starting DE Marsh is gone and starting DT Epenesa is gone. 
*Lost 2 out 4 of their starting LBs in Zumwalt and Barr. 
*Returning their entire secondary. 

Defensively UCLA is losing quite a bit on the DL and at LB, but are returning almost everyone in the secondary. Losing Barr and Zumwalt will hurt, both very good players. 


Right now I would say I favor UCLA in this game. The more I look at the rosters though, this game isn't as lopsided as I thought. UCLA lost a whole bunch of production on defense. UCLA's offense will be good, but I think they are going to have struggles on defense replacing some players. If Texas can control Hundley in the running game, Texas has a shot to win this game IMO. 

 

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Kansas: 

*Returning both Heaps and Cozart at QB. Interestingly Cozart was named as the starter in Spring ball. Hope that stays the case, Heaps is the better QB in my opinion. Cozart can't throw the ball. 
*Lost their starting RB in James Sims (was their offense last year). 
*They are losing Bourbon and Ford at WR. Hard to really determine who the starters were last year. Kansas threw out about 5 or 6 receivers last year and just prayed for production. Their top receiver only had 333 yards receiving. I will say Pierson is a pretty good receiver that's returning, but they don't have much talent at that position overall. 
*They also lost their top TE in Mundine. Was their second leading receiver. 
*Lost their starting OT in Sterling and starting C in Howard. 

Offensively Kansas will be very bad next year. Their offense was dependent on Sims making plays last year. They have very little talent at QB, RB or WR. Probably the worst team in the Big 12 offensively. 

*Losing their starting DTs in Young and Agostinho. 
*Returning virtually everyone at LB and in the secondary. 

Defensively Kansas should be at least decent since they are returning most of its players. Not a lot of talent though on the roster. They are experienced, so I will give them that on defense. 

This is a game Texas should win rather easily. Kansas will not be able to score next year. If Texas can put up 17 points, they should win this game. 

 

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Baylor: 

*Returning their starting QB in Petty.
*Lost their starting RB in Seastrunk. Granted, they still have plenty of talent at RB. 
*Lost Tevin Reese at WR, but are returning virtually everyone else. Reese was their best receiver IMO though. 
*Lost starting LG Richardson, starting RT Palmer, and starting C Huber. 
*Lost their two best TEs in Monk and Navjar. 

Offensively Baylor is going to be fine at RB, QB and WR. Have some question marks on the offensive line though. Losing Richardson is a critical loss, one of the best offensive lineman I've seen in a good while. 


*Lost starting DEs in Lloyd and Mcallister. 
*Lost their starting LB in Lackey. 
*Lost 4 starters in the secondary. Morton, Holl, Dixon, and Goodson. 

Defensively Baylor improved last year. But they are losing some serious talent and production. IMO Baylor is going to take a big step backwards on defense. Very difficult to replace almost your entire secondary and linebacker core. 


I honestly think Texas will win this game. Baylor is not a very good team away from Waco. Baylor's defense will struggle next year and they have some serious question marks up front on offense. There's no denying Baylor has some serious talent at the skilled positions on offense, but I see some major issues at the other positions. 

 

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Oklahoma:

*Returning their starting QB in Knight. Not sold on him as a QB yet. Had a great game against Bama, but that's the only game he really performed in. 
*Losing a lot of talent at RB in Williams, Clay and Finch. Still have "talent" at RB, but no returning production really. 
*Losing a lot of talent at WR in Bester, Saunders, and Reynolds. They still have Shephard, but that's the only WR with any type of production from last year. 
*Losing their top TE in Green. 
*Losing their starting C in Ikard. 

Offensively OU is returning almost everyone on the O-Line, but not really sure why people are sold on this offense. They are literally losing almost everyone at the skilled positions at WR and RB. They also have a QB that's only performed in one game. Maybe they end up being good offensively, but I see some struggles. They also have a Manny Diaz as their offensive coordinator. 


*Losing 2 starters in the secondary in Colvin and Lynn. Colvin was their best secondary player last year IMO. 
*Losing starting LB that was injured last year in Corey Nelson.

Defensively OU is returning a lot. Replacing Colvin and Lynn won't be easy though. Two pretty good players. OU should be good upfront on the defensive line and at LB. Still don't think they have a playmaker on the defensive line, but that's for another discussion. 

This game is 50/50 IMO. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage and can run the ball will win this game. 

 

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Iowa State: 

*Their top two QBs in Richardson and Rohach are returning. Neither are very good QBs IMO, but they have experience. 
*Their starting RB in Wimberly is returning. They are losing their backup RBs in Johnson and White who had quite a few carries. Wimberly is a pretty good back. 
*Aren't losing much at WR, but are losing their 3rd leading WR from last year in Coleman. Bunch of players returning, but I don't see much talent at this position. Bundrage is a good WR, but that's about it. 
*Losing their starting RT Lichentburg and starting RG Tuftee. 

Really don't see much talent other then Wimberly. Unless Richardson and Rohach vastly improve, this offense will struggle.

*Starting DE Scott is gone. 
*Lost starting DT in Bevins. 
*Defensive lineman Coe and Irving were also dismissed from the team recently this year. Iowa State actually had some potential on the defensive line, but not anymore after these dismissals. 
*Lost their starting MLB in George. 
*Lost two starters in the secondary in Washington and Broomfield. 

Could be a long year for the Cyclones defensively. Their strength was the defensive line. With Bevins leaving the team and Coe/Irving being dismissed, that defense may be the worst in the Big 12. 

This is a game Texas should win easily, especially at home. Iowa State's offense should be below average and their defense should be really bad. 

 

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Kansas State: 

*Returning their starting QB in Walters.
*Lost their starting RB in Hubert. No production returning at RB really. 
*Losing a lot of talent on the offensive line. Lucas, Taylor, Cooper, and Rooks all saw some time on the o-line and they are gone. 
*Losing starting receiver Thompson. They do have probably the best WR in the Big 12 returning in Lockett, but after that they really don't have much production from last year returning. 

Offensively I think Kansas State will be alright. Still not sold on Walters at QB and have some major changes on the offensive line. Losing a 1000 yard back won't be easy to replace and they are going to have to find another option at WR now that Thompson is gone. I see a great WR in Lockett, but not much more after that on the offense. 

*Losing a starting DT in Reed. 
*Losing starting LBs Slaughter and Walker. 
*Losing starting secondary players in Daily and Zimmerman. 

Defensively K-State has a lot of production to replace. Zimmerman, Slaughter and Walker were arguably K-State's best defensive players. They are losing some critical pieces on defense. IMO K-State will struggle defensively replacing the caliber of players like Slaughter, Walker, Daily and Zimmerman. 

I'm 50/50 on this game simply because it's in Manhattan. I think Texas is the better team, but on the road won't be easy. Texas D-line should be able to dominate a K-State offensive line that will see some major changes. I do think K-State is way over-hyped coming into this season. Question marks at QB, WR, RB, offensive line, LB and the secondary.
 

 

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Texas Tech: 

*Returning their starting QB in Webb. Better hope he doesn't get injured, because they have nothing behind him after all the transfers. 
*Washington and Williams are both returning at RB. Not a lot of production though from last year. Neither back had  500 yards last year. 
*Losing their top 2 receivers/TE from last year in Amaro and Ward. Losing those two players is a lot of production to replace. Over 2,000 yards of receiving to replace. 
*They are returning their entire offensive line. 

Offensively Tech will be good like they always are. They better hope Webb doesn't get injured, because there's nothing behind him. Have a lot of production to replace at WR/TE, so I think Tech will be about the same as they were last year offensively. They may even take a step back. You don't replace players like Amaro and Ward. 

*Losing two starters on the defensive line in Hyder and Bush. 
*Losing two starters at LB in Smith and Bullitt. 
*Losing two starters in the secondary in Jones and Porter. 

Tech will be very bad defensively next year. Losing multiple players on each level of the defense will be tough. They will be very young on defense next year also. Heck, their entire secondary may be nothing but underclassmen. 

This is a game Texas should win even though it's in Lubbock. Tech is just too undersized on the defensive and offensive line. Tech might put up some points, but looking at their defensive roster they have some major problems. 

 

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West Virginia: 

*Trickett and Millard are both back at QB. 
*Lost their starting RB in Simms. They are returning Smith and Smallwood who are decent backs, but their offense ran through Simms last year. 
*They are returning most of their WRs. Only receiver they lose is Carswell. Bunch of returning players, but not a whole lot of talent IMO. 
*Losing a few players on the offensive line in Feight, Kindler, and Eger. 

Offensively WV should be about the same as last year in the passing game, if not a little bit better. Losing a player like Simms will be tough to replace. Also, they have some changes that will have to be made on the offensive line. Probably a middle of the pack to lower tier team offensively in the Big 12. 


*Losing two starters on the defensive line in Clarke and Rowell. 
*Returning essentially all their starting LB core. 
*Cook is really the only player they lose in the secondary. 

Defensively they aren't losing much in the secondary or at LB, but not sure how much talent is there. Defensively WV is probably middle of the pack to a lower tier team in the Big 12. Just not much talent there IMO. 

This should be a game Texas wins, especially at home. WV is returning a lot, but talent wise there's a big disparity in the favor of Texas. 

 

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Oklahoma State:

*They lost their starting QB in Chelf. They are returning JW Walsh, granted he was benched last year because he was so bad. 
*They are returning their best RB in Roland. They do lose Smith who had a decent year last year. After Roland they don't have much production at RB. 
*Lose a whole bunch of talent at WR. They lost Tracey Moore, Josh Stewart, and Charlie Moore. That's 3 of their top 4 receivers. 
*Lost starting OG Webb, staring OG Graham, and starting center Jenkins. 

I know Gundy is an offensive genius but that's a lot of production to replace. Wow. I think they take a pretty big step backwards next year on offense. 

*They lose two starters on the defensive line in Barnett and Johnson. 
*They lose two starters at LB in Lewis and Lavey. 
*They lose three starters in the secondary in Gilbert, Gary and Lowe. 

Wow, they lose a bunch on defense too. I think they also take a big step backwards defensively. 

There's no reason Texas should lose this game. Oklahoma State is completely rebuilding. If Gundy is able to finish better than 7-5 next year, he's one hell of a coach. OSU is arguably losing the most players/production in the country. 

 

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TCU: 

*They are losing their starting QB in Pachall. Big time cluster you know what at this position. I don't think they have a clue who their QB is going to be. Could very well be Joeckell who transferred from A&M. 
*They return their leading rusher in Catalon, but they did lose their best back in Waymon James. After Catalon they really don't have much production at RB. 
*They are returning most of their WRs, but do lose their third leading receiver in Brown.
*Losing their starting LG Dunbar and starting RG in Tausch.  

Offensively TCU was atrocious last year. Don't really see that changing. They don't have a QB, they have a decent RB, and they don't have a WR. I see why they didn't score a point in their final spring practice. Just not much there to work with. 

*Losing a starting DE in Koontz. 
*Returning essentially their entire LB core. 
*Losing two starters in the secondary in Olabode and Verrett. 

Defensively TCU will probably be pretty good. Granted, they lose two pieces of their best positional group (the secondary). 

Texas should win this game at home. Until TCU shows anything on offense I can't pick them to win anything. 

 

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I predicted Texas to finish 9-3 last year, and they probably would have absent injuries and Case McCoy. Those predicting a 6-6 finish for Texas next year are way off base. No way in hell Texas finishes with 6 losses next year. I honestly see a 9-3 record, like I did last year. IMO Texas will lose three out of UCLA, OU, Baylor, K-State and Tech. The only game that I see as an uphill battle is UCLA, every other game is winnable. If I'm way off base I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong. Sorry with roster turnover I don't see more then 3 or 4 losses on that schedule, max. 

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Utisdabomb - Great stuff, thanks for posting this. I thoroughly enjoyed the read.

Until digesting your BYU analysis, I had not circled that game on the schedule. But now, I'm not sure that's not our toughest game. They look salty, no pun intended.

Not feeling good about the UCLA game.

One other consideration for your OSU analysis re: offensive line - no Joe Wickline there to make something out of nothing.

I think it comes down to two things for the Horns this season:

1. Can David Ash stay healthy through the whole schedule?

2. Can Jerrod Heard pick up the slack and lead the team if Ash goes down? Yes, I said Heard because he's your best QB not named Ash.

If you're 4-1 or so and Ash goes down, how do you not play the best you have?

 

[MikeV73]

Heaps transferring from Kansas per ESPN story and Weis interview on radio.  Continues to play musical universities; some of these guys need to just figure out that they are not "the guy" and deal with it.

 

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Utisdabomb - Great stuff, thanks for posting this. I thoroughly enjoyed the read.

Until digesting your BYU analysis, I had not circled that game on the schedule. But now, I'm not sure that's not our toughest game. They look salty, no pun intended.

Not feeling good about the UCLA game.

One other consideration for your OSU analysis re: offensive line - no Joe Wickline there to make something out of nothing.

I think it comes down to two things for the Horns this season:

1. Can David Ash stay healthy through the whole schedule?

2. Can Jerrod Heard pick up the slack and lead the team if Ash goes down? Yes, I said Heard because he's your best QB not named Ash.

If you're 4-1 or so and Ash goes down, how do you not play the best you have?

The BYU game is interesting. Not that worried about that game for several reasons. 

1) BYU is a completely different team away from Provo. Just go look at their record last year. They lost 5 games and only 1 at home. That loss was also to a rival by only 7 points. BYU is historically a very good home team and struggles on the road at times. 

2) BYU is going to take a step back defensively. That defense is dependent on good LB play, and they are losing the most at the position. 

3) Manny Diaz is gone. 

4) Their offense is going to be really one dimensional with the WR talent they lost. 

There are other games I'm more worried about to be honest. 

Completely agree with your UCLA and OSU analysis. 

I also agree with QB play being critical, but I don't think it means disaster if we don't have great QB production. We went 8-4 with Case McCoy last year. Good QB play will just push Texas over the top. If David Ash is the QB he was in 2012, this team will easily be a 9-3 team IMO. 

 

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Heaps transferring from Kansas per ESPN story and Weis interview on radio.  Continues to play musical universities; some of these guys need to just figure out that they are not "the guy" and deal with it.

Never heard that, but makes since with Cozart winning the starting job. Good news for Texas IMO, because Heaps is the better QB. Cozart has some legs but he's a couple years away from even being close to ready to throw the ball. 

 

[streettopeschel]

That was a helluva lot of work. appreciate the effort.

i could live with 9-3 in 2014

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

That was a helluva lot of work. appreciate the effort.

i could live with 9-3 in 2014

I too can live with 9-3 or even 8-4 as long as we appear prepared, play hard in every game, and don't just roll over and piddle on ourselves because some school with a paper clip or a purple kitty-cat on their helmet is standing on the other sideline.