Big 12 Expansion Project

[J.B. TexasEx]

Financial Health Scorecard

BYU is the only school that has the finances and attendance figures to rival most Power Five schools, coming in right at the Power Five average.  The rest of the non-Power Five schools lag behind considerably and none even come close to that average.   Some schools, however, do show some promise, especially when compared to the Bottom Ten teams in the Power Five.

 

[rtXC]

Full disclosure, I started at Texas and graduated from TCU.

rtXC, will you please explain to me your reasoning why you would drop TCU & Baylor?  To add insult to injury you add UH (who is actually my personal favorite to add to the BIG XII right now).  I thought Houston's TV sets were already spoken for, that adding them would bring nothing to the conference.  Anyway, it is a quite popular opinion that TCU should be dropped in realignment on this board.  I keep trying to understand the logic behind it.  Other than handing Texas and OU their rightful ability to cherry pick the Metroplex' vast talent pool, I have yet to understand why scuttling TCU makes sense. 

I think once Texas rights the ship they will gain again their recruiting dominance in the state of Texas and compete at the highest level of college football.  For now, though, I do not consent to what I perceive as Texas' fans desire to Game of Thronesing their way.  Here is a novel idea, win the battle on the field.  If Texas has to scheme to rid itself of the TCUs and Baylors of this world, it not only deserves the BIG XII but it will never be ready to compete amongst the blue bloods.

And TCU has always been my 1B since I started following college sports around 2002.

First thing's first: the Big 12 needs 80% of votes to disband and make the GOR and exit fees null. So if there is a merger with the SEC, there would be 5 Texas schools, making for awkward divisions and not maximizing future earning potential.

TCU's been solid for 15 years, and Baylor's been good for 5. With small enrollments and alumni bases, will their new fans still be there to fill stadiums and subscribe to a future online SEC Network (after cable is gone)? Or will the tarps need to bring brought out? It's just too risky.

So if at least 80% of Big 12 schools must stay -- and WVU, KU, OU, OSU, Tech, and Texas are all obvious additions -- would you rather have an SEC-esque fan base like KSU and ISU (the latter of which expands the market) or risks such as TCU and Baylor? I think that part is easy to see.

22 or 23 schools won't work; we need at least 24, preferably something divisible by 4 divisions. Also, we have to assume P5 schools stay in their conferences. A division set up based on geography, competitiveness, and history yields the following:

(6) OU, OSU, KU, KSU, Mizzou, ISU (Big Eight Schools)

(5) Texas, A&M, Tech, Arky, LSU (SWC + rival of A&M and Arky)

(6) Miss, Miss St, AU, Bama, UGA, UF (lots of intertwined SEC rivalries)

(5) Tenn, Vandy, UK, USC, WVU (3 SEC rivals, a relative newbie, and a geographic addition)

For SW division, do you want TCU or Baylor? Or do you want UH, Tulane, UNM, or say another large school like Texas State? UNM expands the market and helps in BB, but goes into a new time zone. Tulane is small, but might eat into LSU's grasp over LA, but doesn't expand the market (and LSU would nix it). UH is the clear winner based on facilities, program trajectory, and enrollment.

For the NE division, the pickings are slim as the ACC has most of the desirable programs in the region. Memphis won't expand the market, but would probably be better than Vandy if we're speaking pure athletics and if they invested in their facilities. Temple offers Philly, but does it really? Cincy gets the SEC into Ohio and is a big school that has its own stadium and the Bengals' stadium to use. Cincy is a no-brainer.

I know that was a lot for something so simple, but that explains my thought process: Cincy and UH fit in the geography of the desired division set up, are sustainable programs, and also offer more for the future of conference TV programming. (They aren't good for the Big 12 right now partly because TV networks won't pay for them, but this merger has them replacing current power schools, which is the difference)

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[longhorn_mig]

Based on all the schools being considered, the Big 12 needs to sit back and let things play out. There is no reason to add any of the mediocre schools that have been tossed out there. Either:

(1) Continue with the conference as it is;

(2)  Wait it out and add disgruntled P5 schools when they are allowed to seek greener pastures; or

(3) Let the Big 12 die and go to another P5 conference.

I honestly believe adding a mediocre school to the conference is the worst option and starts skating the line of watering down the conference.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

How this BYU blogger arrived at "15% chance" when there are 10 votes is a mathematical conundrum 

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[rtXC]

Honestly, I think we need to give Baylor the boot. NCAA probably won't, but should hand down the death penalty since this is far worse than any SMU, UNC, or even PSU.

If that were to happen, I'd like to see Cincy replace BU for 2017. UH would come in and compete immediately, but Cincy would be better for a few reasons. 1. They have been a top 50 football program for about a decade. 2. They bridge the gap to WVU. 3. They are very good in basketball, too. 4. The number of P5 schools in the state would drop back down to 4, rather than keeping it at 5.

 

[Embrey]

We voted while y'all weren't looking. We are kicking Texas out of the Big XII, keeping the LHN and changing it into the conference network then adding UH, Cincinnati and BYU.

 

[rtXC]

We voted while y'all weren't looking. We are kicking Texas out of the Big XII, keeping the LHN and changing it into the conference network then adding UH, Cincinnati and BYU.

Cool. Looks like the conference will be relegated to the Go5 after OU leaves. Good luck.

 

[ah-blong]

keeping the LHN and changing it into the conference network

might check with espn first.  my bet is they'd cancel it if they could.  what sounded interesting when they had money to burn doesn't sound so interesting today.

if any 'horn doesn't clearly see the value of that network, check to see how desperately so many programs and their fans want it gone.  it's probably boren's first and last thought every day.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

We voted while y'all weren't looking. We are kicking Texas out of the Big XII, keeping the LHN and changing it into the conference network then adding UH, Cincinnati and BYU.

Put down the bong, dude...  B)

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

might check with espn first.  my bet is they'd cancel it if they could.  what sounded interesting when they had money to burn doesn't sound so interesting today.

if any 'horn doesn't clearly see the value of that network, check to see how desperately so many programs and their fans want it gone.  it's probably boren's first and last thought every day.

I'm actually surprised ESPN doesn't have an "out clause" to cancel LHN if it's underperforming to the level most sportswriters claim. I suspect that Clay Travis and his ilk don't have a f'n clue, but that isn't news either. Regardless, our administration loves LHN because they perceive it as an invaluable 24-hour infomercial and the athletic department contributes $5M+ annually to UT academics because of it.

LHN isn't going anywhere unless the Big12 comes up with very compelling reasons to roll it into a league channel. Even then, I doubt we've got a network partner who is willing to buy out and pool existing T3 contracts. IMO, (while being as ignorant about these deals as the aforementioned Travis) the juice ain't worth the squeeze.

 

[mbhakta315]

I don't think adding any of the Go5 members will add anything to the big 12. The big10 and SEC are going to be bringing in way more revenue than the other 3 p5 conference. I think a more likely scenario is a merger between 2 of the 3 p5 conferences. ESPN has been gun shy in acquiring rights and seems like in no hurry to help the ACC get their network set-up. ESPN reportedly has clause that if the network is not set-up by July 1,2016 they owe the ACC $45M. I think a big12/ACC merger with the T3 rights (LHN) being left to each individual school is a possibility. 

Big12/ACC West:

Texas

Tech

TCU

Baylor

OU

OK St

Kansas

Iowa St or Kstate

Big12/ACC East:

Florida St

Clemson

Miami

Georgia Tech

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

UNC

Duke

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

I don't think adding any of the Go5 members will add anything to the big 12. The big10 and SEC are going to be bringing in way more revenue than the other 3 p5 conference. I think a more likely scenario is a merger between 2 of the 3 p5 conferences. ESPN has been gun shy in acquiring rights and seems like in no hurry to help the ACC get their network set-up. ESPN reportedly has clause that if the network is not set-up by July 1,2016 they owe the ACC $45M. I think a big12/ACC merger with the T3 rights (LHN) being left to each individual school is a possibility. 

Big12/ACC West:

Texas

Tech

TCU

Baylor

OU

OK St

Kansas

Iowa St or Kstate

Big12/ACC East:

Florida St

Clemson

Miami

Georgia Tech

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

UNC

Duke

Nope, I don't see ESPN making any real investment in another conference network.

I keep reading "the Big12 is gonna fall way behind the B1G and SEC", but I don't see that in an ala carte programming world either. While successful, neither of their networks will be as profitable as originally projected unless the channel is included in basic cable packages. The next big thing is "skinny bundles" with and without sports programming.

While your ACC/Big12 merger has merit, I don't see how you justify dumping an Iowa State or Wake Forest without one helluva lawsuit on your hands. If this happened, it's just as likely to result in 24+ teams with 4 divisions IMO.

 

[ah-blong]

agree with several.  when the skinny bundles and cord-cutting go where they are headed, the days of lush networks will be over.  i doubt many will make money but may prove worth it for conferences to pony up enough to keep the games on.  showing high school games in texas would help immeasurably.

also believe that any noteworthy change to the lhn agreement would likely lead to cancellation.  i bet boren thinks the same and is using the conference network ploy to try shutting us down.  i bet that network resonates with some families.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

showing high school games in texas would help immeasurably

Well, yeah, the LHN had tentatively reached a deal with the UIL to broadcast TX public high school sports. That was going to be a big part of LHN's appeal. The NCAA - with aggy leading the charge - decided that no high school content can be shown on school-specific or conference channels.

Now we can't broadcast high school content on LHN or SECn, etc. Thanks, aggy

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I get the Big 10 Network. I don't watch it often because let's face it, their football is as exciting as watching grass grow. And I like it when grass grows.

Nebraska left a prestigious position in the Big 12, top dog in the North, . . to become lost in a field of second tier teams in a boring conference. I wonder if it's still better than getting punked by Texas every other year?

 

[ah-blong]

Nebraska

it's an open question whether that move was worse for nebbie or b1g.

 

[ah-blong]

also open question whether the nebbie move or the aggy move was more unsmart.

what isn't a question, open or otherwise, is whether the nebbie move or the aggy move was worse for the state of texas.  hs programs.  college programs.  whole damn state.

the state of texas should give aggy to japan as a good will gesture for them to use as a japanese university or hazardous waste facility.  their choice.