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Texas vs. TCU (Oct. 3, 2015) Film Review

There was a play earlier (post #27) where TCU checked to a "smoke" (safety) blitz against 2x2 with the back aligned to the boundary. Jay Norvell took advantage of it here.

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When Foreman switches sides before the snap, TCU checks into the blitz. Basically, that drew the field-side linebacker out into coverage and the boundary-side linebacker into the box as a QB spy. TCU was then left with only two DBs to cover three possible receiving threats (the two split receivers and the RB) on the boundary side, so they made a "silver" call, which tells the defensive end that he has to cover the back if he flares out. If you look at at previous post, you'll see that the end is standing up watching the back like he is on this play.

Norvell knew Texas would get the back matched up on the end here. It'll be interesting to see how TCU adjusted, and if they stopped bringing that safety blitz, after that.

 
Who is that in the slot at the bottom of the screen? 

We should honestly use Foreman more in the pass game. I don't think teams respect his speed because he's built like a bowling ball, but he has wheels. He's going to be a mismatch for LBers or ends coming out of the backfield. 

Gray is just such a frustrating RB. I hope Foreman continues to get the majority of touches. 

I will say this, I liked some of the looks with Gray and Foreman together in the backfield. That could potentially create problems in the backfield. What I would like to see is Daje and Foreman in the same backfield. Daje isn't a receiver unfortunately because he can't catch the ball. I would rather see Daje getting some touches out of the backfield. 

 
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Who is that in the slot at the bottom of the screen? 

We should honestly use Foreman more in the pass game. I don't think teams respect his speed because he's built like a bowling ball, but he has wheels. He's going to be a mismatch for LBers or ends coming out of the backfield. 

Gray is just such a frustrating RB. I hope Foreman continues to get the majority of touches. 

I will say this, I liked some of the looks with Gray and Foreman together in the backfield. That could potentially create problems in the backfield. What I would like to see is Daje and Foreman in the same backfield. Daje isn't a receiver unfortunately because he can't catch the ball. I would rather see Daje getting some touches out of the backfield. 
Andrew Beck. 

And I agree with you on Daje in the backfield. 

It's frustrating that we've got three backs who are all in the same mold, two who are different but are redshirting, and one who was different but quit. I am really looking forward to seeing Kirk Johnson.

 
Ryan stop making us relive this Horror!

Ok I kid..Just thought it was funny to say..

I will crawl back into my worm hole now

 
Here's an idea: Let's run a sprint-out to the right. As long as we get decent blocks from Hutchins and Beck ... 

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Or not. 

 
Just want to show two things here real quick: First, Bryce Cottrell has consistently been a good pass rusher. He's one of only four players with multiple quarterback hurries and is the only lineman in the group (I'm counting Hughes as an LB) — that's impressive when you consider how few snaps he's gotten compared to some other guys. Second, here's the problem with simplifying the defense and running a bunch of man coverage as some fans have called for: You end up with guys like Bonney (and Haines on the bottom) in one-on-ones, where every match is a mismatch. Bonney is very smart and instinctive, but he's not very athletic. I hope the coaches can find a spot for him.

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These are plays that won't happen nearly as often once the talent level is back where it needs to be.

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If Jason Hall were just a step earlier, this is probably incomplete. Also notice that Texas is in man coverage in this and the previous play, both from the same drive — who did TCU target?

 
Kind of interesting: Texas played only man coverage on that drive and Boykin was 1-for-5 passing after going 7-for-10 up to that point, but to be fair, there were two catchable balls.

 
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This short-yardage Power-O play doesn't work because Elijah Rodriguez gets knocked back and impedes the pulling guard, but holy $#*! look at Caleb Bluiett try to wipe the defensive end off not just the field but maybe Earth too.

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 I am a huge Bluiett fan. It's a shame there isn't a halfway decent tight end, because Texas could really use Bluiett on the defensive side of the ball as well.

 
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Daje will get hurt behind that OL like he did the last time he was put back there by (Applewhite ?). If Daje can't catch he needs to be used on reverses and kick returns..not punts he might muff it. We need Foreman and Warren in the backfield.

...and get #47 off the field when we go one back or no backs.

 
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Heard doesn't even look to the right or middle of the field. This was either predetermined to go there or Heard isn't going through his progressions. 

If Heard waits about another second or two, it looks like nobody picks up the RB out of the flat. 
Actually, the choice is to run the ball here. I know, I know, you are counting the safety as being in the box, but the power is being run away from him, so I would not count him as a box player, in this sense. You have an apex player playing the overhang, thus as you point out, you have 3 on 2. That being said, had the ball been snapped where the QB could immediately field the ball, the ball would have been out faster which would allow receiver at the bottom to not have to hold his block as long, which would allow the slot to have caught the and get up the sideline, which would have probably given us a first down. Again, I am counting 6 in the box with 6 blockers, So the run option is there since the power is being run into the boundary. 

However, there are too many breakdowns for this play to work with Heard spitting the ball. It takes too long because of the bad snap. I tend to to believe that this play only "looks" like an RPO and is a called "spit" play. 

 
If you want to beat better teams, you have to make these plays.

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I checked the previous games, and Heard has attempted 16 passes of 20+ yards. 

Rice

2/3 for 101 yards and two touchdowns

Incompletions: ~39 yards, dropped by Foreman, offensive pass interference (phantom call would have negated the gain anyway)

Cal

3/4 for 142 yards

Incompletions: ~39 yards, dropped by Foreman, defensive pass interference (defender fell down and grabbed him but Foreman got loose and still let the ball go through his hands; would have been a touchdown)

Oklahoma State

2/3 for 76 yards

Incompletions: 25 yards, intended for Beck in the corner of the end zone, one could argue for defensive pass interference

TCU

1/6 for 22 yards

Incompletions: ~28 yards, caught by Foreman but he didn't know where he was and stepped out of bounds; ~39 yards, dropped by Foreman, straight through his hands; ~26 yards, intended for M. Johnson but underthrown and hit defender in the back; 22 yards, dropped by Foreman, would-be touchdown went through his hands; ~40 yards, intended for Foreman, bad throw into double coverage

In sum, including the two plays that didn't count because of pass interference, he's 8-for-16 for 341 yards and two touchdowns. There were five drops (all by Foreman) that would have added at least 167 yards and one touchdown.

I was wrong in thinking the offense had been taking fewer deep shots in recent games; they've just been converting fewer of them, and none of that has to do with Heard's accuracy — it's all been drops.

I also heard an argument that Heard hasn't been throwing deep well, that the receivers have been bailing him out, and that he should have thrown several picks. There's a sliver of an argument to be made, but it's mostly not true. The defenders had no chance to make a play in 11 of the 16 throws. Of the remaining five, Foreman won position for one (touchdown vs. Rice), Burt won position for one (vs. Cal) and Bluiett caught one in traffic against TCU. The remaining two were both in the TCU game — the one that hit the defender in the back, and the one into double coverage.

And I want to stress this point: Those other 11 throws were all — all — almost perfect. As in hitting receivers in stride, or put to the outside where only the receiver could make a play on it. And none of those five drops I counted were what anyone would consider particularly difficult catches; not one of them would make the Sportscenter Top 10 even on a Thursday.

I don't know if any of those drops would have made a difference in the outcome of a game. Foreman did have the drop against Cal that would have been a 73-yard touchdown in the first half; Texas ended up punting on that drive. Against TCU, there was a dropped touchdown, so that's obviously lost points, and maybe converting the other chances would have netted a score or two, but Texas wasn't going to win that game. 

 
I wasn't going to post this one but I just watched Bedford's media availability, and he was talking about how they're still trying to teach defensive players to disguise what they're doing and "not be the Statue of Liberty." Look at how similar these defensive alignments are before the snap.

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In the first, Texas drops into Tampa 2; the second is Cover 1. Seeing it like this, I realize now TCU probably had no idea it was man coverage; they just believed Turpin could get inside Jinkens and get some yardage.

 
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