One big metric on judging coaches

[echeese]

Now I realize there is only one village idiot on this board claiming CFS wasn't a good hire while OB seems to be over run with them.

But in a thread title "Sell me on TCU". . . .which lead to some interesting discussions. . . so I did some research.

Now Patterson, Briles and CFS' history has largely been recruiting 3 star guys and developing them though all 3 have certainly landed their share of 4 star guys. . . . but from 2011-2013 (players in 2015 NFL draft and 2011 was CFS' first full class at UL) all 3 schools finished ranked about the same as teams with each class being right at a 3.0 average ranking.

So they all swam in the same talent pool and coached up their players.   But where it gets dramatically different, let's look at the results.

TCU
2015
3 35 99 Paul Dawson Bengals LB
  6 7 183 Tayo Fabuluje Bears G
2014
1 25 25 Jason Verrett Chargers DB
2013
4 5 102 Josh Boyce Patriots WR
  5 20 153 Stansly Maponga Falcons DE
 
Baylor
 
2015
4 103 Bryce Petty Jets QB
  7 7 224 Bryce Hager Rams LB
2014
5 13 153 Cyril Richardson Bills G
  6 10 186 Lache Seastrunk Redskins RB
  6 21 197 Demetri Goodson Packers DB
  7 25 240 Tevin Reese Chargers WR
  7 33 248 Ahmad Dixon Cowboys DB
2013 3 12 74 Terrance Williams Cowboys WR
 
Louisville
 
2015
 
1 14 14 DeVante Parker Dolphins WR
  3 8 72 Jamon Brown Rams T
  3 17 81 John Miller Bills G
  3 18 82 Lorenzo Mauldin Jets LB
  4 5 104 James Sample Jaguars DB
  6 1 177 Deiontrez Mount Titans LB
  6 13 189 Charles Gaines Browns DB
  6 17 193 B.J. Dubose Vikings DE
  7 22 239 Gerod Holliman Steelers DB
  7 39 256 Gerald Christian Cardinals TE
2014
1 18 18 Calvin Pryor Jets DB
  1 26 26 Marcus Smith Eagles DE
  1 32 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings QB
  3 9 73 Preston Brown Bills LB
 
Round  # in round # overall
 
 
And again, not to knock Patterson who I think gets a ton out of his players. . . .
 
But in the same period of time with very similar ranked recruiting classes.
 
Out of those similar classes (in size rankings and average star rankings. . .right around 3.0)  
 
CFS produced 4 1st rounders
Patterson 1
Briles ZERO
 
CFS produced 4 2-3rd rounders
Patterson 1
Briles 1
 
CFS put 14 players in the show in 2 years
Patterson 5
Briles 8    For those weak in math, CFS put more than TCU & Baylor combined.
 
Again, just one metric but a very real/important one.  You don't think this comes up in Mommy & Daddy's living room?   
 
 

 

[Etex Horn]

Good post, echeese. Those inarguable stats prove Coach Strong CAN develope players up to a

level of being high draft choices for NFL teams. For the players to be drafted that high means they

played great in college...which is exactly what we want for the University of Texas! 

 

[streettopeschel]

interesting stats and read. now, if it translates into wins at UT, we got a metric worth celebrating.

 

[Epictetus]

I did a look-up last recruiting season and noticed that in CFS four years at Louisville, he garnered only twelve 4-star recruits to Mack Brown's fifty-eight.

Tonight I looked up TCU and Baylor as well. Was not aware they faced about what CFS faced.

Amazing what Texas had to work with by comparison.

source: rivals.com Yahoo sports

legend:

(5-star) - (4-star) - (3-star)

2010

UL, 0-3-18

TCU, 0-2-16  *Patterson been there since 2000

Baylor, 0-4-17 *Briles been there since 2008

UT, 2-19-4

2011

UL, 0-4-15

TCU, 0-2-23

Baylor, 0-1-16

UT, 1-15-8

2012

UL, 0-3-16

TCU, 0-3-17

Baylor, 0-3-18

UT, 2-15-10

2013

UL, 0-2-13

TCU, 0-2-17

Baylor, 0-3-15

UT, 0-9-6

Louisville: twelve 4-stars

TCU: nine 4-stars

Baylor: eleven 4-stars

Texas: fifty-eight 4-stars

I was not aware the relative small 4-star classes for all three of these programs.

Nor the great number of 4-star classes the Top10 recruiting classes haul in.

Texas averaged 14 per year in that period.

A&M, same period: thirty-three 4-stars

2010: 0-9-13

2011: 0-3-15

2012: 1-6-15

2013: 0-15-15

And not getting into recruiting for 2014 and 2015 here...  another chapter to the story.

the future, always uncertain... ~Yoda

 

[DMAC]

Now I realize there is only one village idiot on this board claiming CFS wasn't a good hire while OB seems to be over run with them.

I think Charlie will be a great coach at UT.  Hes had one year which ended in disaster.  If Charlie had a decent offense line and quarterback the result would have been different.  Its difficult for a team with a GREAT defense to overcome constant TO's and 3 and outs by the offense.   The defense was dramatically improved last year.  The defensive numbers would have been even better if the offense could actually give them some rest by sustaining drives and avoiding TO's.

He needs atleast 3 years before we judge his success.

In Charlie I trust. 

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Excellent post, Chuck

Sometimes, I think recruits garner an additional star based on who offered them. Is it possible Mack's classes were bolstered because UT recruited these kids? How often does this happen?

Maybe Strong's classes will be inflated due to the "Texas Effect". Just a thought. Regardless, I'm confident CFS and Coach Moorer will maximize our players' abilities.

 

[DMAC]

Excellent post, Chuck

Sometimes, I think recruits garner an additional star based on who offered them. Is it possible Mack's classes were bolstered because UT recruited these kids? How often does this happen?

Maybe Strong's classes will be inflated due to the "Texas Effect". Just a thought. Regardless, I'm confident CFS and Coach Moorer will maximize our players' abilities.

Funny Charlie mentioned this same thing in an interview.  Where he offers a kid who was rated 3 stars then after the offer the kid gains an additional star.   I saw it on LHN a few weeks after his hire.

 

[echeese]

Excellent post, Chuck

Sometimes, I think recruits garner an additional star based on who offered them. Is it possible Mack's classes were bolstered because UT recruited these kids? How often does this happen?

Maybe Strong's classes will be inflated due to the "Texas Effect". Just a thought. Regardless, I'm confident CFS and Coach Moorer will maximize our players' abilities.

I think there is truth to that.

I think there is also great truth to the idea of guys who peak in HS (a long complaint about Texas HSers vs Florida) and do not have any growth left in college.

Face it, the NFL draft gets it wrong half the time and they get to evaluate a much more finished prospect and have far more resources to do so, it's an inexact science.

I remain convinced that Mack's downfall was a serious fall off in development, CFS clearly does not have that problem.

But the same post is starting a minor shit storm on OB . . . .it really pisses off posters when their "pet theories" are blown up.

 

[java]

I think there is truth to that.

I think there is also great truth to the idea of guys who peak in HS (a long complaint about Texas HSers vs Florida) and do not have any growth left in college.

Face it, the NFL draft gets it wrong half the time and they get to evaluate a much more finished prospect and have far more resources to do so, it's an inexact science.

I remain convinced that Mack's downfall was a serious fall off in development, CFS clearly does not have that problem.

But the same post is starting a minor shit storm on OB . . . .it really pisses off posters when their "pet theories" are blown up.

Isn't that a shame?

Really though, is anyone surprised? I know that Scipio offends some folks, but as a rule, if someone over there causes trouble & offends people, it's a given that the regulars just give that person a rash of grief. Eventually, they leave or conform and civility is restored. It certainly keeps problem children to a minimum

Good thoughts, fellows. Good job, Matt and Aaron.

Hook 'em!

 

[doc longhorn]

Another thing to consider is that Louisville was not really a target school that everyone wanted to beat - like Texas is.  I suspect a lot of their victories were surprises, as they were probably considered W's in their opponents W/L predictions.

I will bet that Charlie has found out that EVERYONE gets up for the Texas game and beating us is a huge plus for our opponents - regardless what our W/L record is.  We are the Texas Longhorns.

I have to admit, I was a Patterson proponent.  Even over Saban.  Visually, I think he is a sweating pig but there is no denying he is a dynamite coach.  He has the track record to prove it.  There is no way that little private school in Fort Worth should have as strong a football team as they do - unless they have superior coaching.

I'm just amazed that Patterson is still there and hasn't been swooped up by some major college.  And if he leaves TCU, the Big 12 will have another weak member school relying on the conference to support them.  Probably worse than Iowa State and KU.

Watch and see,

 

[doc longhorn]

I find it impossible to demonize an ethical man - whom I think Charlie Strong is.

In addition, I have the lowest regard for those that condemn his moral standards and I classify these kinds of ilk in the same category of those want to win at any cost.  There are tons of these kinds of morons in the SEC.

 

[hooked636905]

Great post echeese. He's been a head coach for 5 seasons and already has 18+ draft picks. 

In 25+ seasons as a head coach Steve Spurrier tops the active coaching list with 99 draft picks. That's roughly 3.96 draft picks per year.

In 4 seasons as  head coach at Louisville Charlie Strong was responsible* for approximately 18 draft picks (Louisville 10(2015), 4(2014), 1(2012). 3(2011). That's 4.5 draft picks per season. In 2015 at Texas, he oversaw 5 draft picks and you could argue without his defensive expertise Mykelle Thompson doesn't get drafted nor does Jeff Swaim get the "toughness" benefit from NFL teams.

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/which-college-coaches-have-produced-most-nfl-draft-picks

*indicates he coached minimum 3 years or was head coach during time of draft.