Texas and Texas Tech both came away with much needed victories last weekend over No. 8 ranked Baylor and TCU–respectively. With that said, both the Longhorns and Red Raiders are headed into Saturday’s matchup in Lubbock at 4-4 overall, and with bowl implications on the line, this is a must-win for both teams.
Texas’ victory over Notre Dame to start the season in Austin had the entire college football community asking, “Is Texas back?†However, with losses against Cal, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State–all of which were on the road–it puts Texas Tech in a sizable statistical advantage. With a Texas Tech defense that played its best game in a very long time against TCU, don’t expect a production decline, but D’Onta Foreman will be hard to contain.
While Texas leads the series 49-16 all-time, and 19-10 in Lubbock, the Red Raiders are 3-2 at the Jones, and undefeated this season when allowing less than twenty points. I do think we need to take into account, however, that Charlie Strong and Kliff Kingsbury are much different than their predecessors, so it’s hard to truly factor in history given the current situations.
Texas Tech has had an issue this season completing tackles, and that’s particularly notable in the secondary where giving up large-yardage plays has become the normal, as opposed to the exception. Despite improvements against TCU, the Red Raiders rank No. 126 in the nation in total defense, allowing an average of 518.4 yards-per-game. To compare, Texas ranks No. 112 in the nation in total defense, allowing 461.9 yards-per-game.
In Monday’s press conference, Texas head coach Charlie Strong addressed the most import element to limiting Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ production. “The quarterback is the issue.†Said Strong. “He scrambles around, and a lot of times you see a quarterback scramble, guys kind of drop their coverage, and you can’t drop your coverage because he’ll let it go, and he’ll let it go from anywhere on the field. We’ve just got to be smart to keep the quarterback contained.†Coach Strong praised TCU saying the Horned Frogs’ defense, “Did a really good job of keeping him in the pocket and forcing him to throw from the pocket.â€
Texas Tech had a scary moment as Mahomes came off the field expressing noticeable pain in his shoulder, but earlier this week, head coach Kliff Kingsbury said Mahomes’ shoulder was fine. This put many at ease, however, with an offensive line that’s given up 19 sacks this season, compared to a Texas defense that’s registered 31 sacks this season, the Red Raiders are facing a blatant mismatch.
On defense, Tech struggles when facing the run, and sacks have been an issue. Ranking last in the Big 12 conference at 10 sacks, and failing to record a sack in its fourth straight game certainly isn’t going to prevent Texas from spreading the ball with efficiency on Saturday. On trips inside the redzone, Texas scores 86 percent of the time, but only 60 percent of its opportunities result in touchdowns. Whereas, Texas Tech scores on 91 percent of its trips inside the redzone, but scores touchdowns 75 percent of the time. If David Gibbs’ defense can prevent touchdowns inside the redzone, that might be the difference-maker, but one game against TCU doesn’t define improvements; consistency does, and Tech’s defense has left a lot on the table this season.
Texas was merciless against Baylor quarterback Seth Russell, recording six sacks in its victory. Perhaps, this is why when Longhorns’ defensive end Breckyn Hager said in a press conference this week that he wanted to “injure†Patrick Mahomes, many viewed the statement as alarming. Although he attempted to clarify his statement, this could have an adverse effect on the Longhorns’ defense, as officials will be put on notice, and likely examine defensive plays with added scrutiny. To Coach Strong’s point about TCU’s defense, the more Mahomes drops back to pass, the easier of a target he will be, but Texas will have to watch itself, all things considered.
On the offensive side, Texas has been effective this season under freshman Shane Buechele. With a huge win over No. 8 Baylor, Coach Strong has a little relief from the hot seat, but the Longhorns will have to makes some explosive plays to stay ahead. Luckily for Texas, it’s notorious for running backs, and recently D’Onta Foreman has been earning his respect on the field.
Foreman has put up 1,105 rushing yards this season making him the Longhorns’ first 1,000 yard rusher since Jamaal Charles in 2007, and the second ranked running back in all of NCAA right now. If the Longhorns’ offensive line continues to open up running lanes with the ease its been able to do all season, it could be a huge night for Foreman, and Tyrone Swoopes, who has been putting in a lot of work at the running back position lately.
Patrick Mahomes and the Texas Tech offense have put up record-setting numbers this season, and we’d expect nothing less from a system that prides itself on throwing as much as Tech does. Mahomes is one of three active FBS quarterbacks right now including Davis Webb of Cal, and Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma who have been coached under Kingsbury’s notable expertise, so it should be business as usual on offensive production, but Tech will have to get some ground game going to offset Texas’s preparation.
While fans are accustomed to the Air Raid, sometimes defensive units show up, and that’s exactly what TCU did. The Horned Frogs limited Mahomes to just 24 completions of 39 passes, 206 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Considering Mahomes leads the nation in passing, and Texas Tech averages around 600 yards of total offense per game, the stats against the Horned Frogs were not ideal.
Despite any pre-game hype video or speech the Texas staff has planned for the pre-game, the Longhorns will struggle against the Red Raiders’ offense. Having surrendered 634 yards of total offense to Baylor, and 507 yards against a somewhat threatening Iowa State team, that puts Texas in a precarious position. Texas Tech leads the nation in crucial third down conversions this season, which means less time for defenses to recover. With Foreman averaging 6.4 yards-per-carry, Coach Strong must be mindful that any breakthrough plays will mean less time for his defense to recover.
Texas Tech went from being the most penalized team in the nation, to committing just one penalty for five yards against TCU. With tempers flaring, especially given the exchanges this week, I don’t anticipate either side to be particularly amicable, but penalty yards and ejections have the power to significantly affect the outcome of this game. Like most contests between Texas and Texas Tech, expect this game to be a close one, with no shortage of trick plays. Whichever team can win the turnover battle has a higher likelihood of emerging as the victor. But if this game comes down to a field goal (because that would be peak Big 12), be advised that Texas Tech kicker Clayton Hatfield is one of the most accurate kickers in the country, and even leads D’Onta Foreman in total points scored at 73, to Foreman’s 60.
Writers always try and present a final score prediction, but there are just far too many untested variables headed into Saturday. With that said, I think the team that has possession last, wins.