Oklahoma State
Big 12 Record: 18-6 – No. 1 seed
Why they can win the tournament: In postseason baseball, pitching and defense win…the Pokes led the conference in both Team ERA and fielding percentage. Cowboys only gave up 57 earned runs in league play – no other team in the Big 12 allowed fewer than 60.
Why they won’t win the tournament: Much like the Longhorn teams of the past few years, the Cowboys offense is just good enough to win games. That often translated to wins in the regular season, but is an Achilles heel in postseason play.
Projected outcome: 3-2 – lose in the Division I finals
TCU
Big 12 Record: 17-7 – No. 2 seed
Why they can win the tournament: TCU ranks 1st in the Big 12 in hitting and 2nd in pitching. They are the most balanced team in the tournament. The Horned Frogs also do a great job at turning double plays and limiting stolen bases.
Why they won’t win the tournament: When the Horned Frogs traveled to Houston for the Minute Maid tourney, they lost 2 of 3 games. Another neutral tournament site, coupled with postseason pitching from the opposition…same result?
Projected outcome: 4-0 – Tournament Champions
Kansas
Big 12 Record: 15-9 – No. 3 seed
Why they can win the tournament: Kansas is on a streak of three Big 12 series sweeps. No other team enters the tournament with the momentum of the Jayhawks.
Why they won’t win the tournament: For all the success on their recent streak, KU is still an average offensive team with an average pitching staff. With the level of play being raised in the postseason, the Jayhawks won’t be able to counter.
Projected outcome: 3-2 – lose in the Division II finals
Texas Tech
Big 12 Record: 14-10 – No. 4 seed
Why they can win the tournament: The Red Raiders can mash – Tech ranks first or second in the league in most offensive categories. Texas Tech led the Big 12 in hits and scored 16 more runs in conference play than the second place team.
Why they won’t win the tournament: Tech’s 10-2 record at home is excellent, but their 4-8 mark on the road is troubling. Good offensive teams often struggle when they leave the confines of their home park.
Projected outcome: 1-2 – losing in divisional play
Texas
Big 12 Record: 13-11 – No. 5 seed
Why they can win the tournament: Texas is as talented and well-rounded as any team in the field. Early success and confidence could ignite the roster and this team has a higher ceiling than any other in OKC.
Why they won’t win the tournament: The Longhorns allow too many walks and their .970 fielding percentage ranks 6th in tourney field. Extra base runners and extra outs spell doom in postseason play.
Projected outcome: 4-2 – losing in the tournament final
West Virginia
Big 12 Record: 9-14 – No. 6 seed
Why they can win the tournament: The Mountaineers do an excellent job of extending at bats. The team struck out fewer times than anyone in the field and they do a great job on the base paths. That kind of discipline is necessary in tournament play.
Why they won’t win the tournament: After winning their series against Texas in Morgantown, WVU went on the road and lost their final six league games. West Virginia finished 2-10 in Big 12 road games.
Projected outcome: 0-2
Baylor
Big 12 Record: 8-15 – No. 7 seed
Why they can win the tournament: Junior Adam Toth might be the league’s best offensive player. If Toth catches fire and carries the offense…
Why they won’t win the tournament: Beyond Toth, BU can’t score. Baylor ranks last in Big 12 in batting and only scored 71 runs in conference play.
Projected outcome: 1-2 – losing in divisional play
Oklahoma
Big 12 Record: 8-16 – No. 8 seed
Why they can win the tournament: (crickets chirping)
Why they won’t win the tournament: The Sooners have a Team ERA more than a full run higher than any team in the tournament. OU’s pitching staff is the only one in the tournament field allowing a .300+ baa. Oklahoma also finished with the worst fielding percentage in the Big 12.
Projected outcome: 0-2
